35 Senate seats are up in 2026 (13 Democratic-held, 22 Republican-held). The 29competitive races above are shown individually; the remaining safe seats aren't listed but are included in the Senate-control forecast on the home page.

Governor (30)

Alabama

Governor

99%

Nominee changed — Foulkes beat the governor in the primary

House (71)

full House forecast →

Most House districts have no 2026 polls, so these are mainly fundamentals-based forecasts — district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment, on the enacted (post-redistricting) maps — with district polling blended in where it exists. The 71 most competitive districts are shown; all 435 feed the chamber-control forecast (224 expected Dem seats, 64% Dem control) on the House page.

Click a district to see why the forecast lands where it does.

MI-4

Sean McCann (D) vs Bill Huizenga (R) · pres lean R+6.0

Toss-up

62% · EVEN

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+6.0, held by Bill Huizenga (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted EVEN — a 62% Republican win. Full race details →

TX-34new map

Vicente Gonzalez (D) vs Eric Flores (R) · pres lean R+10.2

Toss-up

50% · EVEN

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.2, held by Vicente Gonzalez (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is EVEN — a 50% Republican win. Full race details →

OH-7new map

Brian Poindexter (D) vs Max Miller (R) · pres lean R+11.2

Toss-up

52% · D+0.3

A fundamentals forecast blended with 3 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.2, held by Max Miller (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+0.3 — a 52% Democratic win. Full race details →

WI-1

Mitchell Berman (D) vs Bryan Steil (R) · pres lean R+5.0

Toss-up

53% · R+0.3

A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.0, held by Bryan Steil (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+0.3 — a 53% Republican win. Full race details →

WI-3

Rebecca Cooke (D) vs Derrick Van Orden (R) · pres lean R+7.0

Toss-up

53% · R+0.5

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+7.0, held by Derrick Van Orden (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+0.5 — a 53% Republican win. Full race details →

MI-10

Christina Hines (D) vs Mike Bouchard (R) · pres lean R+7.0

Toss-up

54% · R+0.6

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+7.0, held by John James (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+3.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+0.6 — a 54% Republican win. Full race details →

IA-1

Christina Bohannan (D) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) · pres lean R+8.0

Toss-up

55% · R+0.7

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+8.0, held by Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+0.7 — a 55% Republican win. Full race details →

VA-1

Shannon Taylor (D) vs Rob Wittman (R) · pres lean R+5.0

Toss-up

55% · D+0.8

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.0, held by Rob Wittman (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+0.8 — a 55% Democratic win. Full race details →

PA-10

Janelle Stelson (D) vs Scott Perry (R) · pres lean R+5.0

Toss-up

57% · D+1.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.0, held by Scott Perry (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+1.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.0 — a 57% Republican win. Full race details →

OH-9new map

Marcy Kaptur (D) vs Derek Merrin (R) · pres lean R+10.7

Toss-up

59% · R+1.4

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.7, held by Marcy Kaptur (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+1.4 — a 59% Republican win. Full race details →

PA-8

Paige Cognetti (D) vs Rob Bresnahan (R) · pres lean R+8.0

Toss-up

62% · R+1.9

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+8.0, held by Rob Bresnahan (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+1.9 — a 62% Republican win. Full race details →

NC-1new map

Don Davis (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (R) · pres lean R+11.6

Toss-up

62% · D+1.9

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.6, held by Don Davis (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+1.9 — a 62% Democratic win. Full race details →

OH-10new map

Kristina Knickerbocker (D) vs Mike Turner (R) · pres lean R+7.9

Lean R

70% · R+1.9

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+7.9, held by Mike Turner (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+1.9 — a 70% Republican win. Full race details →

NY-3

Tom Suozzi (D) vs Mike LiPetri (R) · pres lean R+4.0

Lean D

71% · D+2.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+4.0, held by Tom Suozzi (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 71% Democratic win. Full race details →

IA-3

Sarah Trone Garriott (D) vs Zach Nunn (R) · pres lean R+4.0

Toss-up

52% · D+2.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+4.0, held by Zach Nunn (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 52% Republican win. Full race details →

PA-1

Bob Harvie (D) vs Brian Fitzpatrick (R) · pres lean D+0.3

Toss-up

63% · D+2.0

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+0.3, held by Brian Fitzpatrick (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+1.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.0 — a 63% Democratic win. Full race details →

IA-2

Lindsay James (D) vs Joe Mitchell (R) · pres lean R+10.0

Toss-up

63% · R+2.1

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.0, held by Ashley Hinson (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+2.1 — a 63% Republican win. Full race details →

VA-2

Elaine Luria (D) vs Jen Kiggans (R) · pres lean R+0.2

Toss-up

64% · D+2.1

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.2, held by Jen Kiggans (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+0.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.1 — a 64% Democratic win. Full race details →

MI-7

William Lawrence (D) vs Tom Barrett (R) · pres lean R+1.0

Lean D

65% · D+2.4

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.0, held by Tom Barrett (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.4 — a 65% Democratic win. Full race details →

PA-7

Bob Brooks (D) vs Ryan Mackenzie (R) · pres lean R+3.0

Lean D

68% · D+2.4

A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+3.0, held by Ryan Mackenzie (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.4 — a 68% Democratic win. Full race details →

AZ-6

JoAnna Mendoza (D) vs Juan Ciscomani (R) · pres lean R+1.0

Lean D

69% · D+2.6

A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.0, held by Juan Ciscomani (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.6 — a 69% Democratic win. Full race details →

CA-22new map

Randy Villegas (D) vs David Valadao (R) · pres lean R+1.9

Lean D

67% · D+2.6

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.9, held by David Valadao (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+1.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.6 — a 67% Democratic win. Full race details →

FL-22new map

Pia Dandiya (D) vs Casey Askar (R) · pres lean R+10.4

Lean R

67% · R+2.7

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.4, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+2.7 — a 67% Republican win. Full race details →

NY-17

Cait Conley (D) vs Mike Lawler (R) · pres lean D+1.0

Lean D

69% · D+2.7

A fundamentals forecast blended with 3 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+1.0, held by Mike Lawler (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+1.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.7 — a 69% Democratic win. Full race details →

WA-3

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) vs John Braun (R) · pres lean R+3.0

Lean D

68% · D+2.9

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+3.0, held by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.9 — a 68% Democratic win. Full race details →

AZ-1

Amish Shah (D) vs Jay Feely (R) · pres lean R+3.0

Lean D

68% · D+2.9

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+3.0, held by David Schweikert (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+0.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.9 — a 68% Democratic win. Full race details →

TX-28new map

Henry Cuellar (D) vs Tano Tijerina (R) · pres lean R+10.5

Lean D

69% · D+3.0

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.5, held by Henry Cuellar (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+3.0 — a 69% Democratic win. Full race details →

CO-5

Jessica Killin (D) vs Jeff Crank (R) · pres lean R+9.0

Lean R

75% · R+3.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.0, held by Jeff Crank (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.0 — a 75% Republican win. Full race details →

TX-15new map

Bobby Pulido (D) vs Monica De La Cruz (R) · pres lean R+18.0

Lean R

72% · R+3.0

A fundamentals forecast blended with 3 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+18.0, held by Monica De La Cruz (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+17.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+3.0 — a 72% Republican win. Full race details →

NJ-7

Rebecca Bennett (D) vs Thomas Kean Jr. (R) · pres lean R+1.0

Lean D

70% · D+3.2

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.0, held by Thomas Kean Jr. (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+3.2 — a 70% Democratic win. Full race details →

FL-25new map

Jared Moskowitz (D) vs Scott Singer (R) · pres lean R+9.2

Toss-up

55% · R+3.2

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.2, held by Jared Moskowitz (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.2 — a 55% Republican win. Full race details →

NC-11new map

Jamie Ager (D) vs Jennifer Balkcom (R) · pres lean R+9.6

Lean R

68% · R+3.6

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.6 — a 68% Republican win. Full race details →

MI-8

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) vs Thomas Smith (R) · pres lean R+2.0

Lean D

79% · D+4.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by Kristen McDonald Rivet (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+1.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+4.0 — a 79% Democratic win. Full race details →

CO-8

Manny Rutinel (D) vs Gabe Evans (R) · pres lean R+2.0

Toss-up

58% · D+4.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by Gabe Evans (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+1.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+4.0 — a 58% Democratic win. Full race details →

CO-3

Dwayne Romero (D) vs Jeff Hurd (R) · pres lean R+10.0

Lean R

79% · R+4.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.0, held by Jeff Hurd (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.0 — a 79% Republican win. Full race details →

NY-1

Chris Gallant (D) vs Nick LaLota (R) · pres lean R+10.0

Lean R

79% · R+4.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.0, held by Nick LaLota (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.0 — a 79% Republican win. Full race details →

OH-15new map

Don Leonard (D) vs Mike Carey (R) · pres lean R+10.1

Lean R

78% · R+4.0

A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.1, held by Mike Carey (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+4.0 — a 78% Republican win. Full race details →

MT-1

Sam Forstag (D) vs Aaron Flint (R) · pres lean R+12.0

Lean R

79% · R+4.3

A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, held by Ryan K. Zinke (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+8.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+4.3 — a 79% Republican win. Full race details →

KY-6

Zach Dembo (D) vs Ralph Alvarado (R) · pres lean R+15.0

Lean R

76% · R+4.3

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.0, held by Andy Barr (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+4.3 — a 76% Republican win. Full race details →

ME-2

Matthew Dunlap (D) vs Paul LePage (R) · pres lean R+9.0

Lean R

79% · R+4.3

A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.0, held by Jared F. Golden (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+4.3 — a 79% Republican win. Full race details →

TX-35new map

Johnny Garcia (D) vs Carlos De La Cruz (R) · pres lean R+10.6

Lean R

77% · R+4.6

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.6, held by Carlos De La Cruz (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+4.6 — a 77% Republican win. Full race details →

FL-14new map

Kathy Castor (D) vs Mike Beltran (R) · pres lean R+10.6

Toss-up

62% · R+4.6

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.6, held by Kathy Castor (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.6 — a 62% Republican win. Full race details →

OH-1new map

Greg Landsman (D) vs Eric Conroy (R) · pres lean R+2.6

Lean D

78% · D+4.8

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.6, held by Greg Landsman (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+4.8 — a 78% Democratic win. Full race details →

NJ-9

Nellie Pou (D) vs Rosie Pino (R) · pres lean R+1.0

Lean D

82% · D+5.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.0, held by Nellie Pou (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+5.0 — a 82% Democratic win. Full race details →

NV-3

Susie Lee (D) vs Martin O'Donnell (R) · pres lean R+1.0

Lean D

82% · D+5.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.0, held by Susie Lee (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+5.0 — a 82% Democratic win. Full race details →

WA-5

Carmela Conroy (D) vs Michael Baumgartner (R) · pres lean R+11.0

Lean R

83% · R+5.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, held by Michael Baumgartner (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+5.0 — a 83% Republican win. Full race details →

NM-2

Gabe Vasquez (D) vs Greg Cunningham (R) · pres lean R+2.0

Lean D

79% · D+5.0

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by Gabe Vasquez (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+3.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+5.0 — a 79% Democratic win. Full race details →

SC-1

Nancy Lacore (D) vs Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) · pres lean R+13.0

Lean R

80% · R+5.1

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+13.0, held by Nancy Mace (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+5.1 — a 80% Republican win. Full race details →

MO-2new map

Fred Wellman (D) vs Ann Wagner (R) · pres lean R+11.6

Lean R

80% · R+5.2

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.6, held by Ann Wagner (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+5.2 — a 80% Republican win. Full race details →

NE-1

Chris Backemeyer (D) vs Mike Flood (R) · pres lean R+13.0

Lean R

84% · R+5.2

A fundamentals forecast blended with 3 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+13.0, held by Mike Flood (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+5.2 — a 84% Republican win. Full race details →

FL-4new map

LaShonda Holloway (D) vs Aaron Bean (R) · pres lean R+12.0

Likely R

85% · R+6.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, held by Aaron Bean (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+8.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.0 — a 85% Republican win. Full race details →

AR-2

Chris Jones (D) vs French Hill (R) · pres lean R+16.0

Lean R

84% · R+6.0

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+16.0, held by French Hill (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+15.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+6.0 — a 84% Republican win. Full race details →

MN-1

Brad Finstad (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+12.0

Likely R

86% · R+6.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, held by Brad Finstad (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+8.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.0 — a 86% Republican win. Full race details →

FL-27new map

Eliott Rodriguez (D) vs María Elvira Salazar (R) · pres lean R+14.7

Likely R

88% · R+6.2

A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.7, held by María Elvira Salazar (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+6.2 — a 88% Republican win. Full race details →

TX-23new map

Katy Padilla Stout (D) vs Brandon Herrera (R) · pres lean R+15.0

Lean R

85% · R+6.3

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+6.3 — a 85% Republican win. Full race details →

CA-13new map

Adam Gray (D) vs Kevin Lincoln (R) · pres lean D+0.4

Likely D

87% · D+6.4

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+0.4, held by Adam Gray (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+3.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+6.4 — a 87% Democratic win. Full race details →

IN-1

Frank Mrvan (D) vs Barb Regnitz (R) · pres lean D+0.4

Likely D

87% · D+6.4

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+0.4, held by Frank Mrvan (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+3.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+6.4 — a 87% Democratic win. Full race details →

FL-13new map

Leela Gray (D) vs Anna Paulina Luna (R) · pres lean R+13.4

Likely R

89% · R+6.4

A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+13.4, held by Anna Paulina Luna (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+6.4 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →

NH-1

Stefany Shaheen (D) vs Anthony DiLorenzo (R) · pres lean D+2.0

Likely D

85% · D+6.4

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+2.0, held by Chris Pappas (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+5.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+6.4 — a 85% Democratic win. Full race details →

CA-40new map

Young Kim (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+12.6

Likely R

87% · R+6.6

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.6, held by Young Kim (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.6 — a 87% Republican win. Full race details →

FL-7new map

Bale Dalton (D) vs Ryan Elijah (R) · pres lean R+12.6

Lean R

80% · R+6.6

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.6 — a 80% Republican win. Full race details →

CA-48new map

Marni von Wilpert (D) vs Jim Desmond (R) · pres lean D+3.5

Likely D

87% · D+7.0

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+3.5, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+6.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+7.0 — a 87% Democratic win. Full race details →

NY-4

Laura Gillen (D) vs Jeanine Driscoll (R) · pres lean D+1.0

Likely D

88% · D+7.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+1.0, held by Laura Gillen (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+4.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+7.0 — a 88% Democratic win. Full race details →

NJ-2

Zack Mullock (D) vs Jeff Van Drew (R) · pres lean R+13.0

Likely R

88% · R+7.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+13.0, held by Jeff Van Drew (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.0 — a 88% Republican win. Full race details →

VA-5

Tom Perriello (D) vs John McGuire (R) · pres lean R+12.0

Likely R

87% · R+7.0

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, held by John McGuire (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+7.0 — a 87% Republican win. Full race details →

FL-16new map

Kelly Kirschner (D) vs Sydney Gruters (R) · pres lean R+13.8

Likely R

87% · R+7.0

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+13.8, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+7.0 — a 87% Republican win. Full race details →

NV-2

Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) vs David Flippo (R) · pres lean R+14.0

Lean R

85% · R+8.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.0, held by Mark E. Amodei (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.0 — a 85% Republican win. Full race details →

AL-2new map

Shomari Figures (D) vs Rhett Marques (R) · pres lean R+14.5

Lean R

78% · R+8.5

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.5, held by Shomari Figures (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.5 — a 78% Republican win. Full race details →

FL-11new map

James Pericola (D) vs Joe Strada (R) · pres lean R+15.8

Likely R

90% · R+9.8

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.8, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+9.8 — a 90% Republican win. Full race details →

GA-1

Amanda Hollowell (D) vs Jim Kingston (R) · pres lean R+16.0

Likely R

90% · R+10.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+16.0, held by Earl L. "Buddy" Carter (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+10.0 — a 90% Republican win. Full race details →

FL-9new map

Darren Soto (D) vs Dan Green (R) · pres lean R+17.9

Likely R

89% · R+11.9

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+17.9, held by Darren Soto (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+14.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.6) shifts every district 2.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+11.9 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →