35 Senate seats are up in 2026 (13 Democratic-held, 22 Republican-held). The 23competitive races above are shown individually; the remaining safe seats aren't listed but are included in the Senate-control forecast on the home page.

Governor (21)

Tennessee

Governor

98%

House (60)

full House forecast →

House districts have essentially no 2026 polls yet, so these are fundamentals-based forecasts — district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment, on the enacted (post-redistricting) maps. The 60 most competitive districts are shown; all 435 feed the chamber-control forecast (225 expected Dem seats, 73% Dem control) on the House page.

Click a district to see why the forecast lands where it does.

VA-1

Shannon Taylor (D) vs Rob Wittman (R) · pres lean R+5.2

Toss-up

53% · D+0.4

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.2, held by Robert J. Wittman (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.4 — a 53% Democratic win. Full race details →

PA-10

Janelle Stelson (D) vs Scott Perry (R) · pres lean R+4.8

Toss-up

53% · D+0.5

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+4.8, held by Scott Perry (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.5 — a 53% Democratic win. Full race details →

CO-5

Jessica Killin (D) vs Jeff Crank (R) · pres lean R+9.2

Toss-up

53% · R+0.6

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.2, held by Jeff Crank (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+0.6 — a 53% Republican win. Full race details →

FL-27

Eliott Rodriguez (D) vs María Elvira Salazar (R) · pres lean R+11.3

Toss-up

55% · R+0.8

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.3, held by Maria Elvira Salazar (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+0.8 — a 55% Republican win. Full race details →

MN-1

Brad Finstad (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+11.2

Toss-up

55% · R+0.8

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.2, held by Brad Finstad (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+0.8 — a 55% Republican win. Full race details →

WI-1

Mitchell Berman (D) vs Bryan Steil (R) · pres lean R+4.2

Toss-up

55% · R+0.8

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+4.2, held by Bryan Steil (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+0.8 — a 55% Republican win. Full race details →

WI-3

Rebecca Cooke (D) vs Derrick Van Orden (R) · pres lean R+6.5

Toss-up

54% · D+0.8

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+6.5, held by Derrick Van Orden (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+3.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.8 — a 54% Democratic win. Full race details →

CO-3

Dwayne Romero (D) vs Jeff Hurd (R) · pres lean R+9.5

Toss-up

56% · R+1.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.5, held by Jeff Hurd (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+1.0 — a 56% Republican win. Full race details →

OH-10new map

Kristina Knickerbocker (D) vs Mike Turner (R) · pres lean R+7.0

Toss-up

56% · D+1.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+7.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+3.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.0 — a 56% Democratic win. Full race details →

PA-8

Paige Cognetti (D) vs Rob Bresnahan (R) · pres lean R+6.8

Toss-up

58% · D+1.3

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+6.8, held by Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+3.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.3 — a 58% Democratic win. Full race details →

IA-1

Christina Bohannan (D) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) · pres lean R+6.8

Toss-up

58% · D+1.3

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+6.8, held by Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+3.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.3 — a 58% Democratic win. Full race details →

CA-35new map

Norma Torres (D) vs Mike Cargile (R) · pres lean D+7.8

Toss-up

61% · D+1.9

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+7.8, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.9 — a 61% Democratic win. Full race details →

AZ-4

Greg Stanton (D) vs Zuhdi Jasser (R) · pres lean D+7.8

Toss-up

61% · D+1.9

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+7.8, held by Greg Stanton (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.9 — a 61% Democratic win. Full race details →

NY-3

Tom Suozzi (D) vs Mike LiPetri (R) · pres lean R+0.2

Toss-up

61% · D+2.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.2, held by Thomas R. Suozzi (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 61% Democratic win. Full race details →

NM-2

Gabe Vasquez (D) vs Greg Cunningham (R) · pres lean EVEN

Toss-up

61% · D+2.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is EVEN, held by Gabriel Vasquez (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 61% Democratic win. Full race details →

CA-47new map

Dave Min (D) vs Jenny Le Roux (R) · pres lean D+4.0

Toss-up

62% · D+2.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+4.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 62% Democratic win. Full race details →

KS-3

Sharice Davids (D) vs Eric Jenkins (R) · pres lean D+4.0

Toss-up

62% · D+2.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+4.0, held by Sharice Davids (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 62% Democratic win. Full race details →

VA-7

Eugene Vindman (D) vs Doug Ollivant (R) · pres lean D+4.0

Toss-up

62% · D+2.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+4.0, held by Eugene S. Vindman (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 62% Democratic win. Full race details →

NJ-9

Nellie Pou (D) vs Rosie Pino (R) · pres lean D+4.0

Toss-up

62% · D+2.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+4.0, held by Nellie Pou (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 62% Democratic win. Full race details →

OH-15new map

Don Leonard (D) vs Mike Carey (R) · pres lean R+10.0

Toss-up

63% · R+2.3

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+2.3 — a 63% Republican win. Full race details →

NC-11new map

Jamie Ager (D) vs Jennifer Balkcom (R) · pres lean R+10.0

Toss-up

63% · R+2.3

AZ-6

JoAnna Mendoza (D) vs Juan Ciscomani (R) · pres lean R+0.7

Toss-up

65% · D+2.6

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.7, held by Juan Ciscomani (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.6 — a 65% Democratic win. Full race details →

PA-7

Bob Brooks (D) vs Ryan Mackenzie (R) · pres lean R+2.0

Lean D

65% · D+2.7

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by Ryan E. Mackenzie (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.7 — a 65% Democratic win. Full race details →

CA-22new map

Randy Villegas (D) vs David Valadao (R) · pres lean R+2.0

Lean D

65% · D+2.7

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.7 — a 65% Democratic win. Full race details →

AZ-1

Amish Shah (D) vs Jay Feely (R) · pres lean R+2.0

Lean D

65% · D+2.7

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by David Schweikert (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.7 — a 65% Democratic win. Full race details →

NY-1

Chris Gallant (D) vs Nick LaLota (R) · pres lean R+8.0

Lean R

72% · R+3.9

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+8.0, held by Nicholas J. LaLota (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+8.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.9 — a 72% Republican win. Full race details →

OH-1new map

Greg Landsman (D) vs Eric Conroy (R) · pres lean R+3.0

Lean D

73% · D+4.2

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+3.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+4.2 — a 73% Democratic win. Full race details →

OH-7new map

Brian Poindexter (D) vs Max Miller (R) · pres lean R+11.0

Lean R

73% · R+4.3

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.3 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →

NJ-2

Zack Mullock (D) vs Jeff Van Drew (R) · pres lean R+11.0

Lean R

73% · R+4.3

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, held by Jeff Van Drew (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.3 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →

NY-2

Patrick Halpin (D) vs Andrew Garbarino (R) · pres lean R+11.0

Lean R

73% · R+4.3

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, held by Andrew R. Garbarino (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.3 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →

VA-5

Tom Perriello (D) vs John McGuire (R) · pres lean R+11.0

Lean R

73% · R+4.3

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, held by John J. McGuire III (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.3 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →

TX-28new map

Henry Cuellar (D) vs Tano Tijerina (R) · pres lean R+11.0

Lean R

73% · R+4.3

TX-34new map

Vicente Gonzalez (D) vs Eric Flores (R) · pres lean R+11.0

Lean R

73% · R+4.3

TX-35new map

Johnny Garcia (D) vs Carlos De La Cruz (R) · pres lean R+11.0

Lean R

73% · R+4.3

MO-2new map

Fred Wellman (D) vs Ann Wagner (R) · pres lean R+11.0

Lean R

73% · R+4.3

OH-9new map

Marcy Kaptur (D) vs Derek Merrin (R) · pres lean R+11.0

Lean R

73% · R+4.3

ME-2

Matthew Dunlap (D) vs Paul LePage (R) · pres lean R+8.2

Lean D

75% · D+4.7

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+8.2, held by Jared Forrest Golden (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is EVEN; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+4.7 — a 75% Democratic win. Full race details →

TX-23new map

Katy Padilla Stout (D) vs Brandon Herrera (R) · pres lean R+15.1

Lean R

79% · R+5.5

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.1, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+5.5 — a 79% Republican win. Full race details →

FL-11

James Pericola (D) vs Joe Strada (R) · pres lean R+14.8

Lean R

81% · R+6.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.8, held by Daniel Webster (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.0 — a 81% Republican win. Full race details →

CA-40new map

new 2026 map district · pres lean R+12.0

Lean R

82% · R+6.4

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.4 — a 82% Republican win. Full race details →

NC-1new map

Don Davis (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (R) · pres lean R+12.0

Lean R

82% · R+6.4

SC-1

Nancy Lacore (D) vs Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) · pres lean R+12.0

Lean R

82% · R+6.4

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, held by Nancy Mace (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.4 — a 82% Republican win. Full race details →

CO-8

Manny Rutinel (D) vs Gabe Evans (R) · pres lean R+0.2

Lean R

83% · R+6.5

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.2, held by Gabe Evans (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.5 — a 83% Republican win. Full race details →

MI-7

William Lawrence (D) vs Tom Barrett (R) · pres lean R+0.5

Lean R

83% · R+6.5

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.5, held by Tom Barrett (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.5 — a 83% Republican win. Full race details →

FL-15

Robert People (D) vs Laurel Lee (R) · pres lean R+9.0

Lean R

83% · R+6.5

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.0, held by Laurel Lee (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.5 — a 83% Republican win. Full race details →

MI-8

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) vs Thomas Smith (R) · pres lean R+1.0

Lean D

83% · D+6.5

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.0, held by Kristen McDonald Rivet (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+1.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+6.5 — a 83% Democratic win. Full race details →

NJ-7

Rebecca Bennett (D) vs Thomas Kean Jr. (R) · pres lean D+0.2

Lean R

84% · R+6.7

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+0.2, held by Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.7 — a 84% Republican win. Full race details →

MI-4

Sean McCann (D) vs Bill Huizenga (R) · pres lean R+5.5

Lean R

84% · R+6.8

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.5, held by Bill Huizenga (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.8 — a 84% Republican win. Full race details →

MI-10

Christina Hines (D) vs Mike Bouchard (R) · pres lean R+5.5

Lean R

84% · R+6.8

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.5, held by John James (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.8 — a 84% Republican win. Full race details →

NE-2

Denise Powell (D) vs Brinker Harding (R) · pres lean D+5.2

Likely D

86% · D+7.3

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+5.2, held by Don Bacon (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+7.3 — a 86% Democratic win. Full race details →

IA-3

Sarah Trone Garriott (D) vs Zach Nunn (R) · pres lean R+3.1

Likely D

86% · D+7.4

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+3.1, held by Zach Nunn (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+7.4 — a 86% Democratic win. Full race details →

NC-14new map

Lakesha Womack (D) vs Tim Moore (R) · pres lean R+15.0

Likely R

87% · R+7.6

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.6 — a 87% Republican win. Full race details →

OH-8new map

Vanessa Enoch (D) vs Warren Davidson (R) · pres lean R+15.0

Likely R

87% · R+7.6

FL-21

James Martin (D) vs Brian Mast (R) · pres lean R+15.0

Likely R

87% · R+7.6

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.0, held by Brian Mast (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.6 — a 87% Republican win. Full race details →

AK-1

Nick Begich (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+12.2

Likely R

88% · R+7.9

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.2, held by Nick Begich (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.9 — a 88% Republican win. Full race details →

VA-10

Suhas Subramanyam (D) vs Dave Beckwith (R) · pres lean D+10.5

Likely D

88% · D+8.2

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+10.5, held by Suhas Subramanyam (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+3.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+8.2 — a 88% Democratic win. Full race details →

NC-3new map

Raymond Smith Jr. (D) vs Greg Murphy (R) · pres lean R+14.0

Likely R

89% · R+8.3

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.3 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →

NC-7new map

Kimberly Hardy (D) vs David Rouzer (R) · pres lean R+14.0

Likely R

89% · R+8.3

KY-6

Zach Dembo (D) vs Ralph Alvarado (R) · pres lean R+14.0

Likely R

89% · R+8.3

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.0, held by Andy Barr (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.3 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →

VA-2

Elaine Luria (D) vs Jen Kiggans (R) · pres lean D+0.4

Likely R

89% · R+8.3

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+0.4, held by Jen A. Kiggans (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.3 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →