Texas Senate
James Talarico (D) is a slight favorite to win the 2026 Texas Senate race — about a 56% chance, winning by less than a point in the projection, after the lead recently flipped. Updated daily from 30 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 30 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+0.6 — a 56% Democratic win.
Latest news
James Talarico Faces the Texas Turnout Test That Thwarted Beto O'RourkeDemocrat James Talarico has established a narrow but consistent polling advantage over Republican Ken Paxton. It places a U.S. Senate victory in Texas closer to his party’s reach than it was at the same stage of Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign. But polling lead…
Biztoc.com · Today
Trump: James Talarico 'missing in action'United States President Donald Trump targeted Democratic Texas US Senate candidate James Talarico, saying he is "MISSING IN ACTION" and questioning his 11-day absence from the campaign trail."No one h...
Biztoc.com · Today
Unearthed clip exposes how far Talarico was willing to go on raising taxes during COVID eraJames Talarico once said he didn't care what taxes had to be raised to avoid healthcare cuts in Texas during the COVID-19 budget shortfalls.
Fox News · Yesterday
Gina Hinojosa Chance of Beating Greg Abbott Flips With PollstersAs much of the attention in Texas this fall has focused on the U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, another statewide contest has been tightening under the radar: Governor Greg Abbott's bid for a record fourth term. A ne…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Three Things to Understand About Ken PaxtonEd Kilore: “The first is that his party is frantic to save him from an increasingly plausible loss to Democrat James Talarico. Both statistically and symbolically, losing a Senate seat in the second-largest state, a GOP bastion for a generation, could be cata…
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday
‘He put his life on the line for us’: MLB legend says President Trump ‘puts America first’United States President Donald Trump has been traveling all across the country over the past several weeks, speaking at rallies and political events ahead of next month’s midterm elections. On Wednesday evening, that took him to San Antonio, Texas, where he s…
The Comeback · Today
Trump and Paxton Make for an Awkward Pair“President Trump held a rally in San Antonio, Texas, Wednesday night to help out the Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, whose race has gone wobbly with less than a month to go before the midterm elections,” the New York Times reports. “Mr. Trump was in f…
Politicalwire.com · Today- James Talarico Faces the Texas Turnout Test That Thwarted Beto O'Rourke
Democrat James Talarico has established a narrow but consistent polling advantage over Republican Ken Paxton. It places a U.S. Senate victory in Texas closer to his party’s reach than it was at the same stage of Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign. But polling lead…
Biztoc.com · Today 
At Least 10 Protesters Disrupt as Trump Rallies for PaxtonThe interruptions started early and kept coming at President Trump's latest Texas stop supporting Ken Paxton in his run for Senate, CBS News reports. Less than 10 minutes into the president's Wednesday night rally at San Antonio's Freeman Coliseum, a proteste…
Newser · Today- Donald Trump’s Texas rally rocked by repeated protests - The Guardian
Donald Trump’s Texas rally rocked by repeated protestsThe Guardian Trump San Antonio rally: President to join GOP Senate nominee PaxtonFOX 7 Austin Live updates: Donald Trump in San Antonio; Iowa, Pennsylvania host midterm debatesThe Hill Donald Trump Steps B…
Slashdot.org · Today
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The polls behind it
30 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Texas Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors James Talarico (D), with roughly a 56% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+0.6.
What do the polls say in the Texas Senate race?
There are 30 polls of this race. The most recent, from New York Times/Siena University (2026-09-30), showed D+6.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+0.6.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Texas Senate race?
James Talarico is the Democratic candidate; Ken Paxton is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Texas Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Texas Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the lead has changed hands — it now favors James Talarico (D) at 56%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Texas Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.