Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 18 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+0.2 — a 51% Democratic win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Republicans have beef with Texas Rep. James Talarico – why does meat matter in US politics?Two communication scholars explain how what Americans eat became shorthand for who they are.
The Conversation Africa · Today
'Texas is a mess!' GOP strategist cackles at Ted Cruz's terrorSen. Ted Cruz's warning to Republicans that state Rep. James Talarico could claim victory in a contentious Texas race spurred uproarious laughter on MS NOW early Friday morning. Cruz's dire words on the Sean Hannity Show Wednesday night centered on Talarico's…
Raw Story · Today
Even Ted Cruz Is Worried Texas Senate Seat Could Turn BlueThe GOP senator warned Republicans not to dismiss James Talarico in his race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
HuffPost · Today- James Talarico raises over $30 million in second quarter, campaign says, more than triple Ken Paxton’s sum
State Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic U.S. Senate nominee, raised a staggering $30 million from April through June, his campaign announced Wednesday — more than triple the amount brought in by his Republican opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton. The haul…
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday 
Texas Democrat James Talarico Exposed His True Gun-Grabbing Intentions in 2020 InterviewTexas Democrat Senate candidate James Talarico endorsed a ban on "assault weapons" in a little-seen 2020 interview, despite claiming to be a "believer in the Second Amendment" while running for higher office. The post Texas Democrat James Talarico Exposed His…
Breitbart News · Yesterday
- 'Texas is a mess!' GOP strategist cackles at Ted Cruz's terror
Sen. Ted Cruz's warning to Republicans that state Rep. James Talarico could claim victory in a contentious Texas race spurred uproarious laughter on MS NOW early Friday morning. Cruz's dire words on the Sean Hannity Show Wednesday night centered on Talarico's…
Raw Story · Today - Even Ted Cruz Is Worried Texas Senate Seat Could Turn Blue
The GOP senator warned Republicans not to dismiss James Talarico in his race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
HuffPost · Today - James Talarico raises over $30 million in second quarter, campaign says, more than triple Ken Paxton’s sum
State Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic U.S. Senate nominee, raised a staggering $30 million from April through June, his campaign announced Wednesday — more than triple the amount brought in by his Republican opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton. The haul…
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday 
Nellis: When Are Republicans Going To Call For Ken Paxton To Drop Out?Democratic strategist Mike Nellis thumped hypocritical Republicans over their heads for their support of Ken Paxton who likely committed voter fraud in Texas, and spent the 4th of July gallivanting around Europe with his mistress instead of campaigning: MAGA …
Crooksandliars.com · Yesterday
I Guess Ken Paxton Struggles to Comprehend Voting Laws as Much as Shield Laws!The Texas AG may have committed voter fraud six times, a new report reveals.
Jezebel · Yesterday
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Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| A2 Insights | 2026-06-28 | 618 | D+2.3 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-27 | 656 | EVEN |
| SoCal Strategies | 2026-06-21 | 800 | R+1.4 |
| Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov | 2026-06-12 | 1200 | R+1.0 |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project | 2026-06-12 | 1200 | R+1.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-06-04 | 800 | R+2.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-06-04 | 807 | D+3.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-05-28 | 1670 | D+3.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-05-28 | 1670 | D+3.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-05-23 | 643 | D+7.0 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-05-06 | 1223 | EVEN |
| YouGov | 2026-04-20 | 1200 | D+8.0 |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project | 2026-04-20 | 1200 | D+8.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-04-20 | 1018 | D+5.0 |
| Impact Research | 2026-03-17 | 900 | D+1.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-03-05 | 576 | D+2.0 |
| University of Houston/YouGov | 2026-01-31 | 1502 | R+2.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-01-12 | 1165 | EVEN |