Texas Senate
James Talarico (D) is a modest favorite to win the 2026 Texas Senate race — about a 66% chance, winning by about 1 point in the projection, after the lead recently flipped. Updated daily from 36 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 36 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+1.4 — a 66% Democratic win.
Latest news
James Talarico Defends Unity, Faith, Abortion Rights in Texas Town HallDemocratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico spent much of a CNN town hall Wednesday night explaining his Christian faith, defending his abortion-rights stance and arguing that Texans have more in common than the political system would have them believe. T…
Biztoc.com · Today- Bettors wager over $220M on midterm election outcomes on Kalshi, Polymarket — with big money on Texas Senate battle
Bettors have reportedly wagered over $220 million on the outcomes of the November midterms on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. That’s more than twice the $92 million in trading volume recorded during the entire 2024 congressional election cycle, Reut…
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday 
CNN’s Dana Bash Warns JD Vance Implying James Talarico Is Gay Can Sway Texas Voters“Can I just add, it’s pretty pathetic if on October 14th that’s the best thing you have going for you," argued veteran CNN correspondent Jamie Gangel. The post CNN’s Dana Bash Warns JD Vance Implying James Talarico Is Gay Can Sway Texas Voters first appeared …
Mediaite · Yesterday- New poll finds Democrats leading in nearly every statewide contest - Houston Chronicle
New poll finds Democrats leading in nearly every statewide contestHouston Chronicle Election Updates: Polls Show Texas Senate Race Tightens; Trump to Rally in Arizona and MontanaThe New York Times New poll reveals surprising shift in Texas Senate race after T…
Slashdot.org · Yesterday 
Talarico to Skip Bernie Sanders Texas Rally as Senate Polling Lead TightensDemocratic Texas Senate hopeful James Talarico will not appear alongside Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders when the progressive independent brings his national tour to the Lone Star State next week, as new polling shows Talarico's lead over Republican Ken Paxton…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
- Bettors wager over $220M on midterm election outcomes on Kalshi, Polymarket — with big money on Texas Senate battle
Bettors have reportedly wagered over $220 million on the outcomes of the November midterms on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. That’s more than twice the $92 million in trading volume recorded during the entire 2024 congressional election cycle, Reut…
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday 
Ken Paxton Claims Greg Abbot Is 'Struggling' to Get Reelected in Latest Leaked Audio Featuring RepublicanTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a newly leaked audio recording that Gov. Greg Abbott is 'struggling' in his reelection bid.
Radaronline.com · Yesterday
Spoiler campaigns deployed by political operative who cost the GOP in 2016: reportAaron Day, the third-party candidate who helped sink Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s reelection bid in 2016, is trying to export his approach across the country, Semafor reported on Wednesday.Day is steering as much as $2.5 million, maybe less if it works, thr…
Raw Story · Yesterday- Talarico to Skip Bernie Sanders Texas Rally as Senate Polling Lead Tightens
Democratic Texas Senate hopeful James Talarico will not appear alongside Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders when the progressive independent brings his national tour to the Lone Star State next week, as new polling shows Talarico's lead over Republican Ken Paxton…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday 
Vance takes aim at soft-on-crime Dems as GOP faces uphill midterm battle: ‘Lost their minds’JD Vance rallied for Ken Paxton in Tyler, Texas, while taking aim at Democrats over Somali gang violence in Minnesota and spiking gas prices.
Fox News · Yesterday
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
36 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Texas Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors James Talarico (D), with roughly a 66% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+1.4.
What do the polls say in the Texas Senate race?
There are 36 polls of this race. The most recent, from FiftyPlusOne (2026-10-11), showed D+3.6. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+1.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Texas Senate race?
James Talarico is the Democratic candidate; Ken Paxton is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Texas Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Texas Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the lead has changed hands — it now favors James Talarico (D) at 66%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Texas Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.