Texas Senate
James Talarico (D) is a slight favorite to win the 2026 Texas Senate race — about a 56% chance, winning by less than a point in the projection, after the lead recently flipped. Updated daily from 30 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 30 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+0.6 — a 56% Democratic win.
Latest news
Hasan Piker Says Talarico Must Answer To The Left If ElectedBy EMILY MEDEIROS, The Daily Signal | October 07, 2026 During a heavily scrutinized event at the University of Texas, left-wing streamer Hasan Piker spoke about the contested U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, saying h…
Biztoc.com · Today
'He Thinks Working People Are a Joke': Ken Paxton Floats Social Security Cuts in Leaked AudioKen Paxton, the Republican Party’s nominee for the US Senate in Texas, expressed a willingness to cut programs such as Social Security in a leaked recording published by The Texas Tribune on Thursday.In the recording, which was made during a private meeting w…
Common Dreams · Today
Snopes: Is There a Golden Statue of a Naked Trump at European Parliament?Snopes investigated the question. The answer is yes. Trump is a laughing stock in Europe. He thinks his bullying and lying makes him look tough. It doesn’t. It makes him look ridiculous. If you are on Twitter, please find this hilarious clip. Trump is giving …
Dianeravitch.net · Today
Watch: Demonstrators Interrupt Trump Rallying For Paxton Senate BidPresident Donald Trump, facing persistent hecklers and a tightening political climate, traveled to Texas to rally conservative voters behind Senate candidate Ken Paxton. Amid a surprisingly competitive race against Democrat James Talarico, the high-stakes ca…
Biztoc.com · Today
Talarico and Paxton Tied in Texas Senate RaceA new UMass Lowell/YouGov poll in Texas finds James Talarico (D) and Ken Paxton (R) tied in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 45%, with Ted Brown (L) at 2%. Texas Senate Race James Talarico (D) 45% Ken Paxton (R) 45% UMass Lowell/YouGov poll · likely voters Th…
Politicalwire.com · Today
- Hasan Piker Says Talarico Must Answer To The Left If Elected
By EMILY MEDEIROS, The Daily Signal | October 07, 2026 During a heavily scrutinized event at the University of Texas, left-wing streamer Hasan Piker spoke about the contested U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, saying h…
Biztoc.com · Today - At Texas Rally, Trump and Paxton Make for an Awkward Pair - The New York Times
At Texas Rally, Trump and Paxton Make for an Awkward PairThe New York Times Watch: Protesters interrupt Trump at San Antonio rally with PaxtonUSA Today Donald Trump’s Texas rally rocked by repeated protestsThe Guardian Trump rallies in Texas as Senate race ti…
Slashdot.org · Today - 'He Thinks Working People Are a Joke': Ken Paxton Floats Social Security Cuts in Leaked Audio
Ken Paxton, the Republican Party’s nominee for the US Senate in Texas, expressed a willingness to cut programs such as Social Security in a leaked recording published by The Texas Tribune on Thursday.In the recording, which was made during a private meeting w…
Common Dreams · Today - Trump interrupted by protesters at Texas rally: ‘They’re paid by enemies of our nation’ - The Hill
Trump interrupted by protesters at Texas rally: ‘They’re paid by enemies of our nation’The Hill At Texas Rally, Trump and Paxton Make for an Awkward PairThe New York Times Watch: Protesters interrupt Trump at San Antonio rally with PaxtonUSA Today Donald Trum…
Slashdot.org · Today 
Trump Rallies to Support Paxton in Texas Senate RacePresident Donald Trump defended his immigration policies during a visit to Texas as he sought to boost struggling GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton ahead of November’s midterm elections. #trump #texas #politics #news #usa Trump’s defense of his immigration pol…
Biztoc.com · Today
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The polls behind it
30 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Texas Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors James Talarico (D), with roughly a 56% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+0.6.
What do the polls say in the Texas Senate race?
There are 30 polls of this race. The most recent, from New York Times/Siena University (2026-09-30), showed D+6.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+0.6.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Texas Senate race?
James Talarico is the Democratic candidate; Ken Paxton is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Texas Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Texas Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the lead has changed hands — it now favors James Talarico (D) at 56%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Texas Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.