Texas Senate
The 2026 Texas Senate race is essentially a toss-up: Ken Paxton (R) holds a narrow 52% edge, projected to win by less than a point, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 25 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 25 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+0.5 — a 52% Republican win.
Latest news
GOP Senator: Talarico Doesn'Doctors Wa To Face Corrupt Ken PaxtonIn a hysterical interlude on Meet The Press Sunday, Senator Tim Scott was reduced to the "I know you are, but what am I?" defense of corrupt Ken Paxton, who is running against James Talarico in a neck-and-neck race. Host Kristen Welker listed off much of Pax…
Crooksandliars.com · Today
Trump's 'staggering' collapse amazes DC insiders: 'Didn't think I'd ever see that'Two longtime Washington, DC insiders could not contain their amazement that President Donald Trump is viewed favorably in only three states in the union.On MS NOW’s “Morning Joe," co-host Joe Scarborough, a former GOP lawmaker, and Democratic strategist Jenni…
Raw Story · Today
AI's massive appetite for power, water ignites fight in high-stakes Texas Senate raceKen Paxton unveils a four-point plan targeting data centers in the Lone Star State as he and James Talarico trade blows over rising power and water costs.
Fox News · Today
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race pollsA potential Democratic win in Texas could signal a shift in political dynamics, impacting Senate control efforts and future election strategies. The post James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race polls appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Crypto Briefing · Today
Dems Worry James Talarico Lacks Support From Black Voters to Win Texas Senate RaceDAILY CALLER NEWS FOUNDATION—Democrats are warning that their party’s nominee to be the next senator for Texas, James Talarico, apparently lacks the amount of support from black voters he needs to flip the traditionally Republican state. “Listen, my home stat…
Daily Signal · Yesterday
- GOP Senator: Talarico Doesn'Doctors Wa To Face Corrupt Ken Paxton
In a hysterical interlude on Meet The Press Sunday, Senator Tim Scott was reduced to the "I know you are, but what am I?" defense of corrupt Ken Paxton, who is running against James Talarico in a neck-and-neck race. Host Kristen Welker listed off much of Pax…
Crooksandliars.com · Today - AI's massive appetite for power, water ignites fight in high-stakes Texas Senate race
Ken Paxton unveils a four-point plan targeting data centers in the Lone Star State as he and James Talarico trade blows over rising power and water costs.
Fox News · Today - James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race polls
A potential Democratic win in Texas could signal a shift in political dynamics, impacting Senate control efforts and future election strategies. The post James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race polls appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Crypto Briefing · Today 
Talarico Dominates Texas Airwaves as Paxton Stays Quiet“With under nine weeks to go until early voting begins in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, both Ken Paxton and James Talarico have been campaigning around the state, meeting voters everywhere from restaurants to music halls as they’ve pitched their political visions,…
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday
GOP senator shredded for 'Sharia law' attack and Ken Paxton defense: 'Soooooo bad at this'Sen. Tim Scott's (R-SC) attempts Sunday to defend President Donald Trump's economy, his controversial colleagues and potentially Islamophobic attacks were met with immediate scorn.Scott was met with scathing reviews after he discussed on "Meet the Press" Sen.…
Raw Story · Yesterday
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The polls behind it
25 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Texas Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Ken Paxton (R), with roughly a 52% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+0.5. It is close enough to be a toss-up.
What do the polls say in the Texas Senate race?
There are 25 polls of this race. The most recent, from Emerson College (2026-08-10), showed R+1.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+0.5.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Texas Senate race?
James Talarico is the Democratic candidate; Ken Paxton is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Texas Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Texas Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Ken Paxton (R) is now favored at 52%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Texas Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.