House (68)
full House forecast →Most House districts have no 2026 polls, so these are mainly fundamentals-based forecasts — district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment, on the enacted (post-redistricting) maps — with district polling blended in where it exists. The 68 most competitive districts are shown; all 435 feed the chamber-control forecast (223 expected Dem seats, 61% Dem control) on the House page.
Click a district to see why the forecast lands where it does.
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.2, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+0.1 — a 51% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+6.0, held by Bill Huizenga (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+0.1 — a 62% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 3 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.2, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+0.2 — a 52% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.0, held by Bryan Steil (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+0.4 — a 53% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+7.0, held by Derrick Van Orden (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+0.6 — a 54% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.0, held by Robert J. Wittman (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+0.7 — a 54% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+8.0, held by Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+0.8 — a 55% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.0, held by Scott Perry (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+1.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.8 — a 57% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+3.0, held by David Schweikert (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+1.4 — a 59% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.7, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+1.5 — a 60% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+1.8 — a 61% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+4.0, held by Thomas R. Suozzi (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.9 — a 70% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+4.0, held by Zach Nunn (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.9 — a 52% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+8.0, held by Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+1.9 — a 62% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+0.3, held by Brian Fitzpatrick (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+1.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+1.9 — a 62% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+7.9, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+2.0 — a 71% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.2, held by Jen A. Kiggans (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+0.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.0 — a 63% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+7.0, held by John James (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+2.1 — a 64% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.0, held by Tom Barrett (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.3 — a 65% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+3.0, held by Ryan E. Mackenzie (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.4 — a 67% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.0, held by Juan Ciscomani (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.5 — a 68% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.9, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+1.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.6 — a 66% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 3 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+1.0, held by Mike Lawler (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+1.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.6 — a 69% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.4, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+2.8 — a 67% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+3.0, held by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.8 — a 67% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.5, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.9 — a 68% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 3 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+18.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+17.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+3.1 — a 72% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.0, held by Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+3.1 — a 69% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.0, held by Jeff Crank (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.1 — a 76% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+3.3 — a 70% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.2, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.4 — a 55% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.0, held by Ashley Hinson (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+3.6 — a 72% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.8 — a 78% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by Gabe Evans (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+1.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+3.9 — a 58% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by Kristen McDonald Rivet (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+1.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+3.9 — a 78% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.1, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+4.1 — a 78% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.0, held by Jeff Hurd (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.2 — a 80% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.0, held by Nicholas J. LaLota (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.2 — a 80% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, held by Ryan K. Zinke (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+8.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+4.3 — a 79% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.0, held by Jared Forrest Golden (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+4.4 — a 80% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+4.7 — a 78% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.8 — a 62% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.0, held by Nellie Pou (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+4.8 — a 82% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.0, held by Susie Lee (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+4.8 — a 82% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by Gabriel Vasquez (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+3.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+4.9 — a 79% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, held by Michael Baumgartner (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+5.2 — a 83% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 3 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+13.0, held by Mike Flood (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+5.3 — a 84% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+5.3 — a 81% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, held by John J. McGuire III (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+8.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+5.7 — a 82% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+16.0, held by French Hill (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+15.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+6.0 — a 84% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+8.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.1 — a 86% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, held by Brad Finstad (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+8.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.2 — a 86% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+0.4, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+3.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+6.2 — a 86% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.7, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+6.2 — a 88% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+0.4, held by Frank J. Mrvan (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+3.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+6.3 — a 86% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+13.4, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+6.5 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+13.0, held by Nancy Mace (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+6.6 — a 86% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.8 — a 88% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.8 — a 88% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+5.0, held by Don Bacon (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+5.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+6.8 — a 87% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+1.0, held by Laura A. Gillen (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+4.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+6.8 — a 81% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+3.5, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+6.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+6.9 — a 87% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+13.0, held by Jeff Van Drew (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.2 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+14.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+7.8 — a 90% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+2.0, held by Chris Pappas (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+7.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+7.8 — a 90% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.0, held by Mark E. Amodei (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.2 — a 85% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.5, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.6 — a 79% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+17.9, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+14.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.5) shifts every district 2.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+12.1 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →