Races

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.3, held by Maria Elvira Salazar (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.3 — a 52% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.2, held by Brad Finstad (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.3 — a 52% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+4.2, held by Bryan Steil (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+0.5 — a 53% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.2, held by Robert J. Wittman (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.5 — a 53% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.2, held by Jeff Crank (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+0.6 — a 54% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+4.8, held by Scott Perry (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.6 — a 53% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+6.5, held by Derrick Van Orden (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.9 — a 55% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.5, held by Jeff Hurd (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+1.0 — a 56% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+7.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+3.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.5 — a 59% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+6.8, held by Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+3.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.6 — a 59% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+6.8, held by Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+3.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.6 — a 59% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+7.8, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 61% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+7.8, held by Greg Stanton (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 61% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+2.1 — a 62% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+2.1 — a 62% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+4.0, held by Eugene S. Vindman (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.2 — a 63% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+4.0, held by Sharice Davids (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.2 — a 63% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+4.0, held by Nellie Pou (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.2 — a 63% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+4.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.2 — a 63% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.2, held by Thomas R. Suozzi (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.4 — a 64% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is EVEN, held by Gabriel Vasquez (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.5 — a 64% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.7, held by Juan Ciscomani (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.7 — a 65% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, held by Andrew R. Garbarino (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.0 — a 67% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.0 — a 67% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.0 — a 67% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.0 — a 67% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, held by Jeff Van Drew (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.0 — a 67% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.0 — a 67% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, held by John J. McGuire III (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.0 — a 67% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.0 — a 67% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.0 — a 67% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+1.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+3.0 — a 67% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by Ryan E. Mackenzie (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+1.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+3.0 — a 67% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by David Schweikert (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+1.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+3.0 — a 67% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+8.0, held by Nicholas J. LaLota (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+8.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.0 — a 72% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+3.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+4.0 — a 72% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+8.2, held by Jared Forrest Golden (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+4.7 — a 75% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.1, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+5.2 — a 77% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.8, held by Daniel Webster (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+5.8 — a 80% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.0 — a 81% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.0 — a 81% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, held by Nancy Mace (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.0 — a 81% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.0, held by Laurel Lee (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.2 — a 81% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.2, held by Gabe Evans (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.4 — a 82% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.5, held by Tom Barrett (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.4 — a 82% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.5, held by John James (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.9 — a 84% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.5, held by Bill Huizenga (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.9 — a 84% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.0, held by Kristen McDonald Rivet (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+7.1 — a 85% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.2, held by Nick Begich (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.3 — a 85% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.4 — a 86% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.0, held by Brian Mast (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.4 — a 86% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.4 — a 86% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+0.2, held by Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.5 — a 86% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+3.1, held by Zach Nunn (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+7.5 — a 86% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+5.2, held by Don Bacon (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+7.7 — a 87% Democratic win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.1 — a 88% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.0, held by Andy Barr (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.1 — a 88% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.1 — a 88% Republican win.

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+10.5, held by Suhas Subramanyam (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+3.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+8.3 — a 89% Democratic win.