House (60)
full House forecast →House districts have essentially no 2026 polls yet, so these are fundamentals-based forecasts — district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment, on the enacted (post-redistricting) maps. The 60 most competitive districts are shown; all 435 feed the chamber-control forecast (225 expected Dem seats, 73% Dem control) on the House page.
Click a district to see why the forecast lands where it does.
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.2, held by Robert J. Wittman (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.4 — a 53% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+4.8, held by Scott Perry (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.5 — a 53% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.2, held by Jeff Crank (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+0.6 — a 53% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.3, held by Maria Elvira Salazar (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+0.8 — a 55% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.2, held by Brad Finstad (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+0.8 — a 55% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+4.2, held by Bryan Steil (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+0.8 — a 55% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+6.5, held by Derrick Van Orden (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+3.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.8 — a 54% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.5, held by Jeff Hurd (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+1.0 — a 56% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+7.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+3.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.0 — a 56% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+6.8, held by Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+3.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.3 — a 58% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+6.8, held by Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+3.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.3 — a 58% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+7.8, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.9 — a 61% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+7.8, held by Greg Stanton (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.9 — a 61% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.2, held by Thomas R. Suozzi (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 61% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is EVEN, held by Gabriel Vasquez (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 61% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+4.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 62% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+4.0, held by Sharice Davids (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 62% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+4.0, held by Eugene S. Vindman (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 62% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+4.0, held by Nellie Pou (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 62% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+2.3 — a 63% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+2.3 — a 63% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.7, held by Juan Ciscomani (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.6 — a 65% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by Ryan E. Mackenzie (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.7 — a 65% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.7 — a 65% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by David Schweikert (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.7 — a 65% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+8.0, held by Nicholas J. LaLota (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+8.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.9 — a 72% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+3.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+4.2 — a 73% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.3 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, held by Jeff Van Drew (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.3 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, held by Andrew R. Garbarino (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.3 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, held by John J. McGuire III (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.3 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.3 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.3 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.3 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.3 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.3 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+8.2, held by Jared Forrest Golden (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is EVEN; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+4.7 — a 75% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.1, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+5.5 — a 79% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.8, held by Daniel Webster (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.0 — a 81% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.4 — a 82% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.4 — a 82% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, held by Nancy Mace (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.4 — a 82% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.2, held by Gabe Evans (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.5 — a 83% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.5, held by Tom Barrett (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.5 — a 83% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.0, held by Laurel Lee (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.5 — a 83% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.0, held by Kristen McDonald Rivet (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+1.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+6.5 — a 83% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+0.2, held by Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.7 — a 84% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.5, held by Bill Huizenga (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.8 — a 84% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.5, held by John James (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.8 — a 84% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+5.2, held by Don Bacon (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+7.3 — a 86% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+3.1, held by Zach Nunn (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+7.4 — a 86% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.6 — a 87% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.6 — a 87% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.0, held by Brian Mast (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.6 — a 87% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.2, held by Nick Begich (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.9 — a 88% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+10.5, held by Suhas Subramanyam (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+3.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+8.2 — a 88% Democratic win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.3 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.3 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.0, held by Andy Barr (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.3 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+0.4, held by Jen A. Kiggans (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.0) shifts every district 4.7 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.3 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →