Who is forecasted today to win the Texas 9th District House race?
Updated Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 7 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Alex Mealer is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Mealer a 95% chance of beating Leticia Gutierrez, with a predicted margin of Mealer +8.5. That is a Safe R race: Mealer wins about 19 times in 20, and Gutierrez in the other 5%.
What the forecast is built on
On its 2026 lines the district's 2024 presidential lean is R+18.5 relative to the nation. The House model starts from that lean, adds the national environment as a uniform swing, and weighs incumbency and fundraising in the win probability.
- District polls: 4 polls averaging Mealer +4.8, blended with the model by how much each is worth.
- The published forecast: Mealer +8.5, a 95% chance for Mealer.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | Mealer's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | 95% | Mealer +8.5 |
| Oct 27 (today) | 95% | Mealer +8.5 |
The polls
4 polls are in today's forecast. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstWhat everyone else says
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Likely R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | Oct 20, 2026 |
All 3 rating shops favor Mealer.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.