U.S. Senate
All 35 Senate elections in 2026. Each state page includes the full candidate field, polls, our model, independent forecaster ratings and news.
Chance of Democratic Senate control
Democrats +52 pts since JanuaryExpected 50.6 Democratic seats (47–54 in 80% of simulations); 51 needed for control. The trend is reconstructed from 30 seats simulated at each point (polled seats from their polls, the rest from fundamentals); today's basis is broken down below.
Marked on the chart: a day the forecasting model itself changed. Earlier points are left exactly as they were published, so a step at a mark is a revision rather than a movement in the race.
Moved most this cycle: Georgia (D +43), Michigan (D +41), New Hampshire (D +34). Movement is in points of win probability, not vote share.
24 of these 35 seats are forecast from their own polling. 6 are never polled — nobody surveys Wyoming, because the answer is not in doubt — and are marked ffor a forecast built from state partisan lean, incumbency, the seat's prior result and the national environment, validated walk-forward against naive baselines. Where a poll exists it leads: a polled seat is the poll model shrunk toward that fundamentals forecast by inverse variance, about 7% of the weight. Against the seats that have both, the fundamentals model agrees with the poll-driven one on all 10 safe races and 10 of 13 competitive ones — it cannot see candidate quality, a scandal or a primary upset. Movement compares the latest run against the first this cycle, in percentage points; a dash means no published series yet. A race whose candidate has left the ballot publishes neither a probability nor a movement.