VotePredictor

Governors

All 36 gubernatorial elections in 2026. Each state page includes the full candidate field, polls, our model, independent forecaster ratings and news.

Moved most this cycle: Michigan (D +43), Georgia (R +31), Arizona (D +27). Movement is in points of win probability, not vote share.

StateCandidatesVotePredictorSince JanuaryConsensus rating
AlabamaDoug Jones vs. Tommy TubervilleSafe R 96%flatSolid R
AlaskaJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Bernadette WilsonLikely D 89%flatTossup
ArizonaKatie Hobbs vs. Andy BiggsLikely D 94%D +27Lean D
ArkansasFredrick Love vs. Sarah Huckabee SandersSafe R 99%R +21Solid R
CaliforniaXavier Becerra vs. Steve HiltonSafe D 99%D +8Solid D
ColoradoPhil Weiser vs. Victor MarxLean D 76%f—Solid D
ConnecticutNed Lamont vs. Ryan FazioSafe D 99%D +10Solid D
FloridaDavid Jolly vs. Byron DonaldsLikely R 85%R +9Lean R
GeorgiaKeisha Lance Bottoms vs. Rick JacksonLean R 73%R +31Tossup
HawaiiJosh Green vs. Gary CorderySafe D 98%f—Solid D
IdahoTerri Pickens vs. Brad LittleSafe R 99%R +5Solid R
IllinoisJB Pritzker vs. Darren BaileyLikely D 94%f—Solid D
IowaRob Sand vs. Zach LahnLean D 84%D +19Lean D (flip)
KansasCindy Holscher vs. Ty MastersonLean R 85%R +14Lean R (flip)
MaineHannah Pingree vs. Bobby CharlesSafe D 99%D +16Solid D
MarylandWes Moore vs. Dan CoxSafe D 99%flatSolid D
MassachusettsMaura Healey vs. Mike MinogueSafe D 99%D +4Solid D
MichiganJocelyn Benson vs. John JamesSafe D 95%D +43Lean D
MinnesotaAmy Klobuchar vs. Lisa DemuthLikely D 94%D +14Likely D
NebraskaLynne Walz vs. Jim PillenSafe R 99%R +26Solid R
NevadaAaron Ford vs. Joe LombardoLean R 76%R +13Tossup
New HampshireCinde Warmington vs. Kelly AyotteSafe R 99%R +13Likely R
New MexicoDeb Haaland vs. Gregg HullLikely D 93%D +20Solid D
New YorkKathy Hochul vs. Bruce BlakemanSafe D 99%D +22Solid D
OhioAmy Acton vs. Vivek RamaswamyToss-up 55%flatTossup
OklahomaCyndi Munson vs. Mike MazzeiLean R 79%f—Solid R
OregonTina Kotek vs. Christine DrazanToss-up 61%D +13Lean D
PennsylvaniaJosh Shapiro vs. Stacy GarritySafe D 99%D +14Solid D
Rhode IslandHelena Foulkes vs. Aaron GuckianNo forecast—Solid D
South CarolinaJermaine Johnson vs. Alan WilsonLikely R 93%R +15Solid R
South DakotaDan Ahlers vs. Larry RhodenSafe R 96%f—Solid R
TennesseeJerri Green vs. Marsha BlackburnSafe R 99%R +2Solid R
TexasGina Hinojosa vs. Greg AbbottLikely R 87%R +7Lean R
VermontAmanda Janoo vs. Phil ScottSafe R 98%R +6Likely R
WisconsinDavid Crowley vs. Tom TiffanyToss-up 63%D +24Tossup
WyomingKenneth Casner vs. Eric BarlowSafe R 95%f—Solid R

Movement compares the Democratic win probability in the latest run against the first one this cycle, in percentage points. A dash means the race has no published series — a race enters the history once there is something to forecast. Races where a candidate has left the ballot publish neither a probability nor a movement.