Who is forecasted today to win the California governor's race?
Updated Monday, October 26, 2026 · 8 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Xavier Becerra is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Becerra a 99% chance of beating Steve Hilton, with a predicted margin of Becerra +21.7. That is a Safe D race: Becerra wins in nearly every simulation, and Hilton in the other 1%.
What the forecast is built on
The forecast starts from the 10 public polls in the forecast window, whose plain average is Becerra +20.5. Each poll is corrected for its voter screen and its pollster's measured house effect first (the “Adjusted” column below).
- The polls, weighted and corrected, read Becerra +22.6.
- The fundamentals (the state's presidential lean, incumbency, the last result and the national environment) read Becerra +13.3.
- The published forecast blends the two, mostly on the polls, at Becerra +21.7.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | Becerra's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| May 28 | 92% | Becerra +22.6 |
| Jun 4 | 92% | Becerra +22.6 |
| Jul 2 | 94% | Becerra +24.1 |
| Aug 6 | 94% | Becerra +24.1 |
| Sep 1 | 93% | Becerra +21.3 |
| Oct 1 | >99% | Becerra +20.2 |
| Oct 19 | >99% | Becerra +21.1 |
| Oct 26 (today) | 99% | Becerra +21.7 |
The polls
10 polls are in today's forecast; 5 older ones have aged out and are shown dimmed. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
The polls behind it
15 polls · 10 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source.The VotePredictor margin is the poll after correcting for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples.
What everyone else says
Prediction markets
| Market | Becerra's chance |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | 97% |
| VotePredictor | 99% |
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid D | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Solid D | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Fox News | Solid D | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Solid D | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| NBC News | Solid D | Oct 23, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics | Solid D | Oct. 12, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Solid D | Oct. 22, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin | Solid D | Oct. 23, 2026 |
All 8 rating shops favor Becerra. The markets average 97% for Becerra; VotePredictor is 2 points more confident in Becerra.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.