Democratic
Xavier Becerra
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton: California governor election, 2026
Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton. Incumbent term-limited. Democratic hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Xavier Becerra favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+23.6
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 17 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Steve Hilton
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
22 polls · 17 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research/Verasight/TrueDot10-142026-10-14D+20.0D+19.3
University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research/Verasight/TrueDot09-162026-09-16D+18.0D+17.3
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every California election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Newsom's death penalty gamble could help him in 2028 — or come back to bite him
A view of the East Block of San Quentin Rehab Center's death row, which was shut down by Gov. Gavin Newsom earlier in his term before he announced Thursday that he was commuting the sentences of condemned inmates. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times) While …
Yahoo Entertainment · Today
California Election Results Take Shape
California voters cast their ballots on Tuesday and the results are starting to take shape. Governor-elect Xavier Becerra held his first press conference this week but offered few details of his agenda for next year. Jane Kim declared victory in the insurance…
KQED · Today
Xavier Becerra snaps at reporters for asking about his plans for office in first press conference: ‘Don’t play this game!’
California Gov.-elect Xavier Becerra said “everything should be on the table” to make the state more affordable in his first public statement since election night — before bristling over questions about what he’ll actually do. “I’m no longer a candidate; I’m …
New York Post · Yesterday
California's 1st Latino Gov Welcomes Endless Migration in Address After Election Day
In his first speech as California's new governor, Democrat Xavier Becerra attacked ICE and hinted that he wants Joe Biden's open borders. The post California’s 1st Latino Gov Welcomes Endless Migration in Address After Election Day appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · November 5, 2026
Steve Hilton admits Trump unpopularity sank run for California governor, vows to keep fighting
Steve Hilton said there is “no question” that anger at President Trump helped sink his campaign for California governor along with Republicans across the country — but the former Fox News host isn’t done fighting.
New York Post · November 5, 2026
These California counties voted for Steve Hilton for governor
Our map shows where Hilton leads despite Becerra winning statewide.
SFGate · November 5, 2026
Ex-Fox News star Steve Hilton loses bid for Gavin Newsom's California governor seat
Californians have picked another Democrat, Xavier Becerra, to succeed Gavin Newsom, the state's outgoing governor who became a Democratic household name nationwide.
Dailymail.com · November 4, 2026
Steve Hilton takes swipe at Dem rival Xavier Becerra in concession speech after governor’s race is called
Steve Hilton offered a message of hope to California Republicans reeling from a steep loss as a result of a blue wave sweeping the country — and made an ominous promise.
New York Post · November 4, 2026