Democratic
Xavier Becerra
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
California governor election, 2026
Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton. Term-limited.
VotePredictor forecast
Xavier Becerra favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+22.2
100%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 4 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Steve Hilton
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2026-09-20 | D+22.0 |
| UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2026-08-09 | D+18.0 |
| Kreate Strategies | 2026-06-17 | D+25.0 |
| CEPP | 2026-05-26 | D+23.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
IE
Solid D
as of Sep. 17., 2026
Sabato
Safe D
as of Sep. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Fox
Solid D
as of Sep. 22, 2026
Silver
Solid D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every California election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
‘Massive Betrayal’: Fury at Newsom and Bonta Over Merger Deal With Paramount
A coalition of state attorneys general led by California's Rob Bonta reportedly reached a deal on Monday to let Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery proceed, an outcome that press freedom advocates and antitrust campaigners condemned as a disaste…
Common Dreams · Yesterday
Steve Hilton punches hard against Xavier Becerra in California
Determines to 'stop worrying about being the underdog and start doing'
Wnd.com · September 20, 2026
Steve Hilton vs. Becerra: Latest California Polls With 7 Weeks to Midterm
Republican hopeful Steve Hilton faces an uphill battle to win California’s gubernatorial race even after improving in recent polls, with the latest surveys showing him trailing Democrat Xavier Becerra. The most recent poll, conducted by the Public Policy Inst…
Biztoc.com · September 17, 2026
Steve Hilton targets Xavier Becerra campaign cash with sweeping California anti-corruption plan
Steve Hilton has a new plan to put a cap on California’s political money machine and expose those working in the shadows of the Capitol. The Republican candidate for governor is rolling out a sweeping anti-corruption agenda Thursday in San Diego aimed at bloc…
New York Post · September 10, 2026
California gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton tears into officials driving Paramount out of LA: ‘It’s a crime’
California gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton says the loss of entertainment jobs has become a major concern for him, particularly because of the industry's importance to Los Angeles.
New York Post · Yesterday
Hilton on courting California's Trump haters
The News Steve Hilton, the Republican nominee for governor of California, is facing an acute version of the challenge familiar to GOP candidates nationwide: how to make the most of an endorsement from President Donald Trump as the president’s popularity wanes…
Biztoc.com · September 17, 2026