Who is forecasted today to win the Hawaii governor's race?
Updated Monday, October 26, 2026 · 8 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Josh Green is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Green a 98% chance of beating Gary Cordery, with a predicted margin of Green +28.8. That is a Safe D race: Green wins about 19 times in 20, and Cordery in the other 2%.
What the forecast is built on
No public poll of this race exists, so the forecast is built on fundamentals: the state's presidential lean (D+24.3), incumbency, the last result (Democrats +26.3 in 2022), and the national environment. It predicts Green +28.8.
How the forecast has moved
Daily tracking of this race began on Oct 26; the trend fills in from here.
What everyone else says
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid D | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Solid D | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Fox News | Solid D | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Solid D | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| NBC News | Solid D | Oct 23, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics | Solid D | Oct. 12, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Solid D | Oct. 22, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin | Solid D | Oct. 23, 2026 |
All 8 rating shops favor Green.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.