Democratic
Josh Green
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Josh Green vs. Gary Cordery: Hawaii governor election, 2026
Josh Green vs. Gary Cordery. Incumbent re-elected..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Josh Green favored
Likely D
89%
chance to win
D+16.5
predicted margin
Fundamentals model · no poll: state lean, incumbency, the prior result and the national environment. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Gary Cordery
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No verified 2026 general-election poll is currently available in the feed for this race.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 89%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Hawaii election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.