Who is forecasted today to win the New York governor's race?
Updated Monday, October 26, 2026 · 8 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Kathy Hochul is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Hochul a 99% chance of beating Bruce Blakeman, with a predicted margin of Hochul +12.6. That is a Safe D race: Hochul wins in nearly every simulation, and Blakeman in the other 1%.
What the forecast is built on
The forecast starts from the 9 public polls in the forecast window, whose plain average is Hochul +10.7. Each poll is corrected for its voter screen and its pollster's measured house effect first (the “Adjusted” column below).
- The polls, weighted and corrected, read Hochul +11.6.
- The fundamentals (the state's presidential lean, incumbency, the last result and the national environment) read Hochul +21.6.
- The published forecast blends the two, mostly on the polls, at Hochul +12.6.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | Hochul's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 | 92% | Hochul +16.1 |
| May 7 | 93% | Hochul +16.4 |
| Jun 4 | 93% | Hochul +16.4 |
| Jul 2 | 91% | Hochul +15.4 |
| Aug 6 | 90% | Hochul +13.8 |
| Sep 1 | 90% | Hochul +13.8 |
| Oct 1 | >99% | Hochul +13.4 |
| Oct 19 | >99% | Hochul +12.2 |
| Oct 26 (today) | 99% | Hochul +12.6 |
The polls
9 polls are in today's forecast; 17 older ones have aged out and are shown dimmed. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
The polls behind it
26 polls · 9 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source.The VotePredictor margin is the poll after correcting for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples.
What everyone else says
Prediction markets
| Market | Hochul's chance |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | 96% |
| Kalshi | 95% |
| VotePredictor | 99% |
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid D | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Fox News | Solid D | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| NBC News | Solid D | Oct 23, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics | Solid D | Oct. 12, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Solid D | Oct. 22, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin | Solid D | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Likely D | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Likely D | Oct. 15, 2026 |
All 8 rating shops favor Hochul. The markets average 95% for Hochul; VotePredictor is 4 points more confident in Hochul.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.