Democratic
Kathy Hochul
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
New York governor election, 2026
Kathy Hochul vs. Bruce Blakeman. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Kathy Hochul favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+15.5
95%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 19 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Bruce Blakeman
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | 2026-08-21 | D+16.0 |
| Siena University | 2026-08-06 | D+10.0 |
| Red Oak Strategic | 2026-07-12 | D+4.0 |
| co/efficient | 2026-07-02 | D+6.0 |
| Siena College | 2026-06-26 | D+25.0 |
| Siena College | 2026-06-23 | D+20.0 |
| Siena University | 2026-06-23 | D+20.0 |
| Pollfinity | 2026-06-14 | D+10.0 |
| Siena University | 2026-04-30 | D+16.0 |
| Siena College | 2026-04-30 | D+16.0 |
| Echelon Insights/Tusk Strategies | 2026-03-26 | D+15.0 |
| Siena College | 2026-03-26 | D+13.0 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2026-03-08 | D+9.0 |
| Siena College | 2026-02-26 | D+20.0 |
| Marist University | 2026-02-19 | D+17.0 |
| Marist College | 2026-02-19 | D+17.0 |
| MAD Global Strategy | 2026-02-04 | D+13.0 |
| Siena College | 2026-01-28 | D+26.0 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 2026-01-08 | D+14.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
IE
Likely D
as of Sep. 17., 2026
Sabato
Safe D
as of Sep. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Fox
Solid D
as of Sep. 22, 2026
Silver
Solid D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every New York election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
AOC Wants Power That Likes Can’t Buy
In New York politics, $300,000 does not buy much. It will not blanket the state in television ads, for example, or transform a governor’s campaign finances. What matters about this specific check in question, though, is that Kathy Hochul came asking Alexandri…
Biztoc.com · Today
Energy groups warn Hochul to restart Indian Point nuclear plant or ‘the lights go out’ (only 4.35 years left)
Energy groups are pushing Gov. Kathy Hochul to restart Indian Point’s dormant nuclear reactors as part of a new ad blitz for “Climate Week.” The Democratic governor’s face will appear on a billboard on a truck alongside the message “open up Indian Point, or t…
Freerepublic.com · Today
Gov. Hochul Says New York’s New AI Compliance Office Could Explore ‘Kill Switch’
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is launching a new office to monitor safety compliance for massive artificial intelligence companies, echoing calls by fellow Democrat California Gov. Gavin Newsom to explore a “kill switch” if the technology turns catastrophic. Hoc…
Insurance Journal · Today
AI companies will have to register in NYS as Hochul won’t rule out a ‘kill switch’
Large-scale Artificial Intelligence companies will have to register to a New York State portal beginning in November — and report critical safety incidents within 72 hours Gov. Kathy Hochul announced Monday. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is joined by AG Latitia…
New York Post · Yesterday
Hochul Adds New Restrictions to Data Center Development in New York
Gov. Kathy Hochul is expanding on her plans to rein in data center growth in New York. The governor announced Monday a new round of transparency, safety and incident reporting requirements for data center developers and operators following a July moratorium o…
Commercial Observer · Yesterday
Bruce Blakeman pitches Nassau budget with no tax hike, more cops
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman took a break from the gubernatorial campaign trail to unveil his $4.6 billion budget proposal for 2027. Blakeman, the GOP gubernatorial candidate taking on incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul in November, filed the nearly $5 bil…
New York Post · September 16, 2026
What Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon Have in Common
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThe conversation around regulating artificial intelligence has rapidly become so w…
The New Republic · September 16, 2026
Hochul touts up to $500 discounts for NY utility bills as Blakeman blasts savings as ‘peanuts’
Gov. Kathy Hochul says 2.5 million more New Yorkers can get up to $500 off utility bills, but rival Bruce Blakeman dismissed the savings as "peanuts."
New York Post · September 15, 2026