VotePredictor
← all governor races

New York governor election, 2026

Kathy Hochul vs. Bruce Blakeman. Incumbent renominated.

VotePredictor forecast
Kathy Hochul favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+13.6
89%
chance to win

Poll-driven model · 17 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →

Democratic

Kathy Hochul

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Bruce Blakeman

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Amy Taylor · Working Families

Polls

PollsterDateMargin
Red Oak Strategic2026-07-12D+4.0
co/efficient2026-07-02D+6.0
Siena College2026-06-26D+25.0
Siena College2026-06-23D+20.0
Siena University2026-06-23D+20.0
Pollfinity2026-06-14D+10.0
Siena University2026-04-30D+16.0
Siena College2026-04-30D+16.0
Siena College2026-03-26D+13.0
Echelon Insights/Tusk Strategies2026-03-26D+15.0
McLaughlin & Associates2026-03-08D+9.0
Siena College2026-02-26D+20.0
Marist College2026-02-19D+17.0
Marist University2026-02-19D+17.0
MAD Global Strategy2026-02-04D+13.0
Siena College2026-01-28D+26.0
John Zogby Strategies2026-01-08D+14.0

Other forecasts

Cook
Solid D
IE
Likely D
Sabato
Safe D
WH
Likely D
RCP
Solid D
Fox
Solid D
VoteHub
Solid D

Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Candidate news

New York Allows Cannabis Microbusinesses To Sell At Farmers Markets

New York cannabis microbusinesses can now sell marijuana at farmers markets and other approved public events under legislation signed by Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Forbes · Yesterday
New York targeting tax cheats after clunky rollout of pied-à-terre levy

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul The state is looking into New York City residents who pay income tax elsewhere. [ more › ]

Gothamist · August 6, 2026
New York’s Data Center Ban Won’t Solve Its Grid Problems

New York isn’t particularly inundated with new data centers, but it just became the first U.S. state to ban them. In an executive order on 14 July, Governor Kathy Hochul imposed a moratorium of up to a year on data centers that consume 50 megawatts of power o…

Ieee.org · August 6, 2026
NY’s controversial assisted suicide law goes into effect, giving terminally ill right to end their lives

New York’s controversial assisted suicide law went into effect on Wednesday, allowing terminally-ill adults to request life-ending medication from their doctors. The “Medical Aid in Dying Act,” signed by Gov. Kathy Hochul in February, had faced blowback from …

New York Post · August 5, 2026
Hochul visits Lake Placid to discuss Olympic potential

LAKE PLACID — Even Gov. Kathy Hochul didn’t want to get ahead of herself, admiting it was hard to not get wrapped up in the buzz. On Monday, she and members of the Lake Placid-New York City Olympic & Paralympic Winter Games Exploratory Committee toured facili…

Pressrepublican.com · August 4, 2026
New York gubernatorial candidate urges 9/11 attendees to turn away from Mamdani during ceremony

Bruce Blakeman says attendees should turn their backs on NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani at the 9/11 memorial over his refusal to condemn "globalize the intifada."

Fox News · August 6, 2026
GOP gov hopeful Bruce Blakeman rips Mamdani over ‘intentional’ Little Italy snub from immigrant map during NYC event

The map, titled “New York City Immigrant Enclaves,” highlights 30 areas across the five boroughs, ranging from Koreatown in Manhattan to Little Pakistan in Brooklyn and Little Yemen in The Bronx – but notably left off the famous Italian-American neighborhood …

New York Post · August 1, 2026
GOP’s Bruce Blakeman vows to axe new pied-a-terre tax — as NYC plans to hire 24 people as part of chaotic rollout

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman vowed to undo Gov. Kathy Hochul’s “oppressive” and “reckless” pied-à-terre tax if elected – as it was revealed the Big Apple plans to hire dozens of employees just to process the new fee. Blakeman, who’s curre…

Freerepublic.com · July 31, 2026