Democratic
Kathy Hochul
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Kathy Hochul vs. Bruce Blakeman: New York governor election, 2026
Kathy Hochul vs. Bruce Blakeman. Incumbent re-elected..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Kathy Hochul favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+12.1
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 14 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Bruce Blakeman
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
32 polls · 14 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every New York election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
These Black Greek Members Won Big During Midterm Sweep
From the yard to the ballot box, Tuesday’s midterm elections prove that the Divine Nine’s influence reaches far beyond Greek life. Long before election night, our fraternities and sororities were building leaders, mobilizing communities and creating pathways …
The Root · Yesterday
How HBCU Grads Made Their Mark on the 2026 Midterms
While Democrats are celebrating big wins following a historic blue wave in the midterms, many of our historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) also have plenty to celebrate. From Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia to Donna Miller in Illinois, more tha…
The Root · Yesterday
Kathy Hochul Is Sort of Crushing It
New York Governor Kathy Hochul won big this year, and not just thanks to the blue wave, Nia Prater reports.
New York Magazine · November 5, 2026
Hochul under pressure from DSA to ‘tax the rich’ immediately after winning second term
Socialists are moving immediately to squeeze Gov. Kathy Hochul on taxes — even as political insiders argue her re-election on Tuesday was owed more to anti-Trump backlash than to a surging left-wing in the Empire State. The Democratic Socialists of America’s …
Freerepublic.com · November 5, 2026
Hochul under pressure from DSA to ‘tax the rich’ immediately after winning second term
Socialists are moving immediately to squeeze Gov. Kathy Hochul on taxes — even as political insiders argue her re-election on Tuesday was owed more to anti-Trump backlash than to a surging left-wing in the Empire State. The Democratic Socialists of America’s …
Freerepublic.com · November 4, 2026
Hochul claims wide margin over Blakeman in NY governor race
Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul expected to defeat Republican Bruce Blakeman in New York, following campaign marked by clashes over antisemitism, Israel, and Jewish voter concerns.
Israelnationalnews.com · November 4, 2026
New York Governor Kathy Hochul Wins Reelection Against Republican Bruce Blakeman
Incumbent Democratic New York Governor Kathy Hochul has won her reelection bid against Republican Bruce Blakeman. The post New York Governor Kathy Hochul Wins Reelection Against Republican Bruce Blakeman appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.
Thegatewaypundit.com · November 4, 2026
Hochul beats Blakeman to win another term as governor
Gov. Hochul beat Republican Bruce Blakeman Tuesday to win reelection for a second full term as governor as New York Democrats turned out in droves in a blue wave driven by President Trump’s deep unpopularity. Hochul led Blakeman by a landslide with the early …
Freerepublic.com · November 4, 2026