Who is forecasted today to win the Oregon governor's race?
Updated Monday, October 26, 2026 · 8 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Tina Kotek is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Kotek a 61% chance of beating Christine Drazan, with a predicted margin of Kotek +1.4. That is still close to a toss-up: Kotek wins about three times in five, and Drazan in the other 39%.
What the forecast is built on
The forecast starts from the 3 public polls in the forecast window, whose plain average is Tied. Each poll is corrected for its voter screen and its pollster's measured house effect first (the “Adjusted” column below).
- The polls, weighted and corrected, read Drazan +1.5.
- The fundamentals (the state's presidential lean, incumbency, the last result and the national environment) read Kotek +21.6.
- The published forecast blends the two, mostly on the polls, at Kotek +1.4.
Misses of a few points are common, so a 1.4-point lead is a 61% chance and not a lock.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | Kotek's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 | 49% | Drazan +0.5 |
| May 7 | 49% | Drazan +0.5 |
| Jun 4 | 53% | Kotek +1.1 |
| Jul 2 | 53% | Kotek +1.1 |
| Aug 6 | 53% | Kotek +1.1 |
| Sep 1 | 53% | Kotek +1.1 |
| Oct 1 | 56% | Kotek +0.8 |
| Oct 19 | 62% | Kotek +1.5 |
| Oct 26 (today) | 61% | Kotek +1.4 |
The polls
3 polls are in today's forecast; 1 older one has aged out and is shown dimmed. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
The polls behind it
4 polls · 3 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source.The VotePredictor margin is the poll after correcting for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples.
What everyone else says
Prediction markets
| Market | Kotek's chance |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | 84% |
| Kalshi | 81% |
| VotePredictor | 61% |
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ | Likely D | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| NBC News | Likely D | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin | Likely D | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Fox News | Lean D | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Lean D | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | Oct. 22, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics | Toss-up | Oct. 12, 2026 |
7 of 8 rating shops favor Kotek, 1 calls it a toss-up and none favor Drazan. The markets average 82% for Kotek; VotePredictor is 21 points less confident in Kotek.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.