Democratic
Tina Kotek
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Oregon governor election, 2026
Tina Kotek vs. Christine Drazan. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Tina Kotek favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+1.3
61%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 3 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Christine Drazan
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Brett Smith · Pacific Green
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| DHM Research | 2026-10-01 | D+2.0 |
| DHM Research | 2026-09-11 | R+2.0 |
| Hoffman Research Group | 2026-05-12 | EVEN |
Other forecasts
Cook
Lean D
as of Oct. 13, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D
as of Oct. 13, 2026
Fox
Lean D
as of Oct. 6, 2026
IE
Lean D
as of Oct. 1, 2026
RCP
Tossup
as of Oct. 12, 2026
Sabato
Lean D
as of Oct. 6, 2026
Silver
Likely D
as of Oct. 13, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every Oregon election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
GOP's Best Pickup Opportunity May Be in Democratic Stronghold Oregon
Democratic Governor Tina Kotek and Republican state Senator Christine Drazan are locked in a tight race for the Oregon governor's seat, a new poll shows, keeping alive what may be the GOP's best shot this year at flipping a governor's mansion in a state it ha…
Biztoc.com · October 9, 2026
GOP May Win Governor Race in Democrat State for First Time in 44 Years—Poll
Republican state Senator Christine Drazan narrowly leads Democratic Governor Tina Kotek in Oregon's gubernatorial race, according to a new poll, putting the GOP within reach of a seat it hasn't won since 1982. The survey of 915 likely voters, conducted by DHM…
Biztoc.com · October 1, 2026
Tight Race for Oregon Governor
A new Oregon Public Broadcasting poll in Oregon finds Christine Drazan (R) leading Tina Kotek (D) in the governor’s race, 47% to 46%, with Brett Smith at 3%. Oregon Governor’s Race Christine Drazan (R) 47% Tina Kotek (D) 46% Oregon Public Broadcasting pol…
Politicalwire.com · September 30, 2026
OREGON ‘She has a chance’: Drazan holds slight lead over Kotek in governor’s race, poll shows
“PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — A new poll in the Oregon governor’s race shows Republican Christine Drazan with a slight lead over Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek. It’s the latest indication that the governor’s race is essentially neck and neck, with less than two m…
Freerepublic.com · September 17, 2026
Poll: Republican Edges Ahead in Oregon Governor’s Race as GOP Eyes First Win Since 1982
Republican Christine Drazan holds a slight lead over Democrat Gov. Tina Kotek in Oregon’s governor’s race as the GOP seeks its first gubernatorial victory in the state since 1982. The post Poll: Republican Edges Ahead in Oregon Governor’s Race as GOP Eyes Fir…
Breitbart News · September 16, 2026
Deep blue Oregon shifts towards electing first Republican governor in 39 years as locals tire of woke chaos
State Senator Christine Drazan surprised many observers when she came within four points of Kotek in 2022, and at least one poll has shown her leading Kotek ahead of this year's rematch.
Dailymail.com · October 12, 2026