Democratic
Tina Kotek
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Oregon governor election, 2026
Tina Kotek vs. Christine Drazan. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Christine Drazan favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+3.0
61%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 3 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Christine Drazan
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| DHM Research | 2026-09-11 | R+2.0 |
| Hoffman Research Group | 2026-05-12 | EVEN |
| FM3 Research | 2026-02-04 | D+5.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Lean D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
IE
Lean D
as of Sep. 17., 2026
Sabato
Likely D
as of Sep. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Fox
Likely D
as of Sep. 22, 2026
Silver
Likely D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every Oregon election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
OREGON
‘She has a chance’: Drazan holds slight lead over Kotek in governor’s race, poll shows
“PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — A new poll in the Oregon governor’s race shows Republican Christine Drazan with a slight lead over Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek. It’s the latest indication that the governor’s race is essentially neck and neck, with less than two m…
Freerepublic.com · September 17, 2026
Poll: Republican Edges Ahead in Oregon Governor’s Race as GOP Eyes First Win Since 1982
Republican Christine Drazan holds a slight lead over Democrat Gov. Tina Kotek in Oregon’s governor’s race as the GOP seeks its first gubernatorial victory in the state since 1982. The post Poll: Republican Edges Ahead in Oregon Governor’s Race as GOP Eyes Fir…
Breitbart News · September 16, 2026
Did Oregon governor sign bill removing math, literacy requirements for graduation to help students of color?
Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek signed a bill to remove math, reading and writing requirements for graduation to help students of color.
Snopes.com · July 10, 2026
Deep-blue Oregon is on track to elect REPUBLICAN governor, claims shock new poll that puts GOP candidate well ahead of Democrat incumbent
Incumbent Democratic Governor Tina Kotek is locked in a head to head with Republican State Senator Christine Drazan.
Dailymail.com · July 10, 2026
DOJ Says ‘Discriminatory and Obstructionist Policies’ in These Blue States Endanger ICE Agents
Four blue states are putting federal agents in danger in an effort to hinder immigration enforcement, a Justice Department action contends. On Monday, days after a Justice Department lawsuit, Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek, a Democrat, ordered state agencies to conti…
Daily Signal · June 1, 2026
Drazan wins Oregon Republican primary for governor, will face Kotek in rematch - OregonLive.com
Drazan wins Oregon Republican primary for governor, will face Kotek in rematchOregonLive.com Drazan declares victory in Oregon Republican governor primaryStatesman Journal Christine Drazan headed for a rematch against Tina Kotek in November election for Orego…
Slashdot.org · May 20, 2026
Christine Drazan wins Oregon GOP primary for governor, setting up rematch with Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek
NBC News projects Drazan, a state senator, emerged from a 14-candidate field to advance to the general election in the blue state.
NBC News · May 20, 2026