Tina Kotek vs. Christine Drazan: Oregon governor election, 2026

Tina Kotek vs. Christine Drazan. Incumbent re-elected..

VotePredictor forecast (our model)

Tina Kotek favored

Lean D

72%

chance to win

D+2.7

predicted margin

Poll-driven model · 4 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →

Democratic

Tina Kotek

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Christine Drazan

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Brett Smith · Pacific Green

Polls

The polls behind it

7 polls · 4 in today's forecast · newest first

Dimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.

PollsterDateMarginOur adj.

GBAO (via Wikipedia)Grade B+10-04D+4.0R+0.1

DHM Research10-01D+2.0D+1.5

DHM Research (via Wikipedia)09-27R+1.0R+1.5

DHM Research09-11R+2.0R+2.5

Public Opinion Strategies (via Wikipedia)Grade C06-24R+4.0R+1.6

Hoffman Research Group (via Wikipedia)05-12EVEND+1.6

FM3 Research02-04D+5.0R+0.6

Other forecasts

VotePredictor (ours)

D 72%

a probability from our model

Cook

Lean D≈ D 75%

as of Oct. 29, 2026

DDHQ

Likely D≈ D 90%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

Fox

Lean D≈ D 75%

as of Nov. 1, 2026

Tilt D≈ D 60%

as of Oct. 29, 2026

NBC

Likely D≈ D 90%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

RCP

Tossup≈ 50%

as of Nov. 1, 2026

Sabato

Lean D≈ D 75%

as of Nov. 2, 2026

Silver

Likely D≈ D 90%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Independent models

Who Shows Up · independent model ↗

D 88%D+6.7

as of 2026-11-03

Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.

Past results

Every Oregon election for governor we hold a result for.

YearWinnerMargin

2022Tina Kotek(D)D+3.4

2018Kate Brown(D)D+6.4

2016Kate Brown(D)D+7.2

2014John Kitzhaber(D)D+5.8

2010John Kitzhaber(D)D+1.5

2006Ted Kulongoski(D)D+8.0

2002Ted Kulongoski(D)D+2.9

1998John Kitzhaber(D)D+34.4

Candidate news

Disturbing scenes on Portland's streets persist as embattled Democrat governor wins re-election despite mounting anger over homelessness crisis that's exploded by 35 percent on her watch

Oregon's homeless population has increased by 35 percent over the past four years, despite executive orders signed by Governor Tina Kotek to prioritize reducing vagrancy.

Dailymail.com · November 4, 2026

Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek wins re-election bid in Oregon

NBC News projects that Kotek defeated Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan in a rematch of their 2022 contest.

NBC News · November 4, 2026

Oregon's Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek wins after tough reelection battle

Although Democrats were generally favored in the national environment, Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek's race against Christine Drazan was one of the biggest nail-biters for a Democratic incumbent in the country.

CBS News · November 4, 2026

Tina Kotek, Oregon’s first lesbian governor, wins reelection

Tina Kotek has won a second term as Oregon’s governor, returning a supporter of LGBTQ+ rights and reproductive freedom to the state’s highest office.

Advocate.com · November 4, 2026

11 p.m. – The Pacific Coast

Polls have closed in California and Washington, along with the remaining portions of Oregon and Idaho. Key races to watch: California House races: Five Republican-held districts targeted by Democrats through redistricting, along with other competitive seats. …

Politicalwire.com · November 4, 2026

Tina Kotek Just Ahead in Oregon Governor’s Race

A new The Oregonian/OregonLive/DHM Research poll in Oregon finds Tina Kotek (D) leading Christine Drazan (R) in the governor’s race, 46% to 44%. Oregon Governor’s Race Tina Kotek (D) 46% Christine Drazan (R) 44% The Oregonian/OregonLive/DHM Research poll …

Politicalwire.com · October 23, 2026

Could this be the year Democrats close the 'governor gap' with Republicans?

When people talk about this year's midterms, they tend to focus on whether Democrats will end unified Republican control of Congress by winning the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives (or both). And that makes sense: Congress has the power to check Presid…

Yahoo Entertainment · October 15, 2026

Deep blue Oregon shifts towards electing first Republican governor in 39 years as locals tire of woke chaos

State Senator Christine Drazan surprised many observers when she came within four points of Kotek in 2022, and at least one poll has shown her leading Kotek ahead of this year's rematch.

Dailymail.com · October 12, 2026