Who is forecasted today to win the Rhode Island governor's race?
Updated Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 6 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Helena Foulkes is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Foulkes a 99% chance of beating Aaron Guckian, with a predicted margin of Foulkes +21.7. That is a Safe D race: Foulkes wins in nearly every simulation, and Guckian in the other 1%.
What the forecast is built on
The forecast starts from the 2 public polls in the forecast window, whose plain average is Foulkes +24.5. Each poll is corrected for its voter screen and its pollster's measured house effect first (the “Adjusted” column below).
- The polls, weighted and corrected, read Foulkes +23.0.
- The fundamentals (the state's presidential lean, incumbency, the last result and the national environment) read Foulkes +11.5.
- The published forecast blends the two, mostly on the polls, at Foulkes +21.7.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | Foulkes's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | 86% | Foulkes +17.4 |
| May 7 | 86% | Foulkes +17.4 |
| Jun 4 | 86% | Foulkes +17.4 |
| Jul 2 | 86% | Foulkes +17.4 |
| Aug 6 | 86% | Foulkes +17.4 |
| Sep 1 | 86% | Foulkes +17.4 |
| Oct 1 | 98% | Foulkes +12.3 |
| Oct 20 | 98% | Foulkes +12.4 |
| Oct 28 (today) | 99% | Foulkes +21.7 |
The polls
2 polls are in today's forecast. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
What everyone else says
Prediction markets
| Market | Foulkes's chance |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | 96% |
| Kalshi | 95% |
| VotePredictor | 99% |
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid D | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Solid D | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Fox News | Solid D | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Solid D | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| NBC News | Solid D | Oct 26, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics | Solid D | Oct. 12, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Solid D | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin | Solid D | Oct. 23, 2026 |
All 8 rating shops favor Foulkes. The markets average 95% for Foulkes; VotePredictor is 4 points more confident in Foulkes.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.