Democratic
Helena Foulkes
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Helena Foulkes vs. Aaron Guckian: Rhode Island governor election, 2026
Helena Foulkes vs. Aaron Guckian. Incumbent lost renomination. Democratic hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Helena Foulkes favored
Safe D
99%
chance to win
D+31.2
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 5 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Aaron Guckian
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Ken Block · Independent
- CD Reynolds · Independent
- Jasjit Gotra · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Rhode Island election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Rhode Island’s new Governor Helena Foulkes spent 25 years at CVS and lost her first election—she says failure and bad bosses made her a better leader
Amidst the wave of democratic victories in Tuesday’s 2026 midterm elections, Rhode Island voters elected Helena Foulkes, a former Fortune 500 executive, as their next governor. Foulkes spent 25 years at CVS, eventually rising to president of its pharmacy divi…
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
Rhode Island’s new Governor Helena Foulkes spent 25 years at CVS and lost her first election—she says failure and bad bosses made her a better leader
Helena Foulkes spent decades in corporate before making a run for governor: ‘You can go for something and it doesn't work, and yet other gifts come’
Fortune · November 4, 2026
Democrat Helena Foulkes Wins Governor’s Race in Rhode Island
Democrat Helena Foulkes is the projected winner of the governor’s race in Rhode Island. The post Democrat Helena Foulkes Wins Governor’s Race in Rhode Island appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Helena Foulkes Leads in Rhode Island Governor’s Race
A new Salve Regina University’s Pell Center poll in Rhode Island finds Helena Foulkes (D) leading Ken Block (I) in the governor’s race, 39% to 28%, with Aaron Guckian (R) at 17%. Rhode Island Governor’s Race Helena Foulkes (D) 39% Ken Block (I) 28% Aaron …
Politicalwire.com · October 20, 2026
The Weekly Closeout: Chewy’s sales jump and a retail exec turns politician
The pet retailer scored more than 7% net sales growth in the most recent quarter. Meanwhile, former Hudson’s Bay CEO Helena Foulkes could soon be Rhode Island’s governor.
Retail Dive · September 11, 2026
Ex-NFL cheerleader battles former gubernatorial aide in tight GOP primary race
Elaine Pelino and Aaron Guckian are locked in a Rhode Island Republican primary too close to call as the GOP eyes a historically blue state.
Fox News · September 10, 2026
Matos wins race for Rhode Island lieutenant governor
Democratic Lieutenant Governor Sabina Matos secured a full four-year term Tuesday, as Republican challenger Aaron Guckian conceded shortly before 10 p.m,
The Boston Globe · November 9, 2022