Head-to-head

We forecast every race; forecasters and pollsters cover only some. Averages over different races aren't comparable, so here each one is paired with our model on only the races it called, one opponent at a time. Lower is better. Click a name to see the two of us side by side on every one of those races.

Overall Pollsters Forecasters Head-to-head ML models

vs forecasters

The Brier score of each final win probability, 2012–2024. We were closer is the share of races where our probability beat theirs, leaving out races where the two were identical.

Competitive only(final margin < 10 pts)

VotePredictor Elections beats 15 of 16 forecasters on their own races.

forecaster	Races	Their Brier	Our Brier	We were closer
Sabato's Crystal Ball	764	0.083	0.073	63%
Cook Political	748	0.081	0.071	66%
FiveThirtyEight	683	0.072	0.074	57%
Inside Elections	538	0.074	0.060	66%
DDHQ/Decision Desk	531	0.095	0.080	73%
The Economist	501	0.088	0.080	52%
JHK Forecasts	391	0.083	0.072	60%
RealClearPolitics	342	0.118	0.069	79%
Elections Daily	293	0.082	0.059	59%
CNalysis	282	0.084	0.060	63%
Race to the WH	276	0.072	0.061	49%
Fox News	242	0.082	0.074	64%
Split Ticket	196	0.089	0.075	58%
Princeton Election Consortium	131	0.060	0.038	63%
New York Times	51	0.081	0.059	78%
Silver Bulletin	40	0.045	0.013	85%

vs pollsters

The margin miss in points: a pollster's final poll against our final forecast, 2004–2025. Our model averages the polls, so it is expected to beat most single pollsters; the table shows by how much. Pollsters with fewer than 10 shared races are hidden. Where we have no forecast for some of a pollster's races (mostly older cycles), the races column shows scored / covered.

Competitive only(final margin < 10 pts)

VotePredictor Elections beats 123 of 132 pollsters on their own races. (12 with fewer than 10 shared races not shown.)

pollster	Races	Their miss	Our miss	We were closer
YouGov	432	5.0	3.5	68%
SurveyUSA	417 / 522	4.2	3.4	57%
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)	303 / 370	4.7	3.3	63%
Public Policy Polling	297	4.7	3.8	58%
Emerson College	238	4.2	3.8	56%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	222 / 361	4.5	3.5	63%
SurveyMonkey	156	6.4	3.6	74%
American Research Group	145 / 203	6.3	3.2	76%
The New York Times/Siena College	145	4.2	3.9	55%
Marist College	139 / 145	4.4	3.1	71%
Public Opinion Strategies	139 / 161	6.8	4.5	70%
Quinnipiac University	136 / 152	4.6	3.1	63%
Zogby Analytics	130 / 191	6.0	3.3	77%
Suffolk University	129 / 130	4.5	3.2	62%
Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies	126	6.0	4.0	70%
Rasmussen Reports	125	4.4	3.1	68%
Ipsos	120 / 122	5.3	3.4	73%
Monmouth University	114	5.1	3.8	62%
Change Research	97	5.8	3.6	72%
Big Village	92	4.2	2.7	64%
Trafalgar Group	87	4.2	3.4	59%
University of New Hampshire	85 / 91	5.5	4.3	58%
GQR	83 / 87	6.0	3.9	72%
Global Strategy Group	81 / 82	6.1	4.5	65%
Research Co.	81	4.2	3.6	57%
ccAdvertising	81	6.9	5.0	64%
Impact Research	74	6.5	4.4	62%
Siena College	74 / 75	5.1	5.2	49%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	73 / 86	6.2	3.8	67%
InsiderAdvantage	73	4.7	2.7	73%
Data for Progress	69	4.9	3.4	65%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	61	4.3	3.5	55%
Cygnal	55	4.3	3.9	58%
McLaughlin & Associates	54 / 63	8.5	4.8	79%
RT Strategies	54	6.0	4.8	69%
Civiqs	53	4.4	3.5	57%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	52	5.1	4.0	60%
Morning Consult	50	4.4	2.2	74%
The Washington Post	50 / 56	3.6	2.4	61%
Tarrance Group	49 / 63	6.1	5.7	61%
We Ask America	49	4.5	3.5	61%
SSRS	48 / 49	4.5	3.4	60%
Normington, Petts & Associates	47 / 49	8.0	5.6	64%
PSB Research	46 / 48	6.2	4.9	64%
OnMessage Inc.	45 / 48	5.0	3.9	58%
Selzer	45 / 50	4.6	3.4	48%
Grove Insight	44 / 45	5.1	3.4	64%
Swayable	43	5.9	3.3	72%
GBAO	41	5.7	3.9	65%
Remington Research Group	39	6.2	4.5	54%
Research & Polling Inc.	38 / 45	4.2	4.7	49%
AtlasIntel	37	2.2	2.4	47%
Dan Jones & Associates	37 / 42	4.9	4.3	41%
Mellman Group	36 / 42	6.9	2.9	83%
DCCC	35	6.3	4.1	60%
Benenson Strategy Group	34	6.4	4.7	68%
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	33	5.1	3.4	73%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	33	6.0	2.3	88%
Digital Research	32 / 37	7.4	4.4	75%
Lake Research Partners	31 / 35	6.7	3.3	71%
University of Massachusetts Lowell	31	3.9	3.4	50%
WPA Intelligence	31 / 33	5.9	4.2	66%
National Research	30	5.8	3.8	77%
Pan Atlantic Research	30 / 36	5.4	4.3	52%
Fairleigh Dickinson University	29 / 31	5.3	4.7	52%
Gallup	29 / 38	3.9	2.5	72%
Moore Information Group	29 / 38	7.5	4.1	83%
RMG Research	29	6.2	3.2	86%
Clarity Campaign Labs	26	5.9	3.8	64%
EPIC-MRA	26 / 38	4.3	4.2	62%
Harris Insights & Analytics	26 / 126	4.8	3.8	54%
Lucid	26	6.2	2.3	81%
St. Pete Polls	26	6.9	5.0	77%
Targoz Market Research	26	6.1	3.3	73%
Vox Populi Polling	26	4.2	4.2	54%
Muhlenberg College	25 / 26	4.1	3.5	63%
The Polling Company Inc.	25	6.1	5.3	56%
MRG Research	24	8.7	6.0	63%
Magellan Strategies	24 / 25	5.6	4.1	71%
Montana State University Billings	24 / 29	5.6	3.1	67%
Harstad Strategic Research	23 / 24	6.0	3.3	65%
Hendrix College	23	7.3	6.3	48%
SoonerPoll.com	23	9.0	4.5	83%
co/efficient	22	5.7	4.5	64%
Angus Reid Global	21	3.2	1.9	65%
Elway Research	21 / 26	4.0	2.0	70%
Alaska Survey Research	20	6.9	4.8	65%
Clout Research	20	7.2	3.2	90%
Glengariff Group	20	4.5	3.2	67%
OH Predictive Insights	20	3.5	2.6	65%
Patriot Polling	20	3.1	2.3	65%
Saint Anselm College	20	5.3	3.7	50%
Christopher Newport University	19	4.1	4.7	53%
DFM Research	19	9.4	4.8	79%
FTI Consulting	19	3.7	2.0	79%
Landmark Communications	19	3.2	2.7	71%
MassINC Polling Group	19	3.2	3.8	47%
Mitchell Research & Communications	19 / 24	3.9	2.7	74%
Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy	19	4.1	4.0	50%
Wick	19	3.9	3.8	47%
EMC Research	18 / 24	7.5	3.0	88%
Roanoke College	18 / 21	4.8	3.7	67%
GfK Group	17	4.1	2.0	71%
University of North Florida	17	5.0	2.9	76%
FM3 Research	16 / 23	6.3	2.0	81%
Harper Polling	16	4.5	5.8	38%
Los Angeles Times	16 / 27	4.0	1.9	69%
American Viewpoint	15 / 19	6.0	6.6	64%
Fleming & Associates	15 / 25	5.4	5.4	53%
Market Shares Corp.	15 / 33	4.0	2.3	67%
Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center	14	6.6	5.1	79%
Maine People's Resource Center	14	6.2	4.7	71%
Marquette University Law School	14	2.5	2.5	57%
Opinion Dynamics	14 / 18	4.0	2.1	79%
Princeton Survey Research Associates International	14 / 17	3.8	3.6	50%
Rutgers University	14 / 18	8.3	5.0	93%
The Tyson Group	14	3.5	1.9	93%
JMC Analytics	13	7.9	7.3	50%
Marketing Resource Group (MRG)	13 / 16	6.4	3.8	83%
North Star Opinion Research	13 / 19	6.6	5.4	62%
University of Connecticut	13 / 25	3.7	3.5	54%
Columbus Dispatch	12 / 17	3.8	3.1	50%
DHM Research	12 / 17	2.6	2.0	75%
East Carolina University	12	3.2	2.7	58%
Public Policy Institute of California	12 / 18	4.3	2.5	67%
Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute	11	7.7	4.2	82%
CBS News/The New York Times	11 / 22	4.5	3.2	60%
Leger	11	3.0	1.4	82%
Western New England University Polling Institute	11	3.3	2.5	55%
Data Orbital	10	2.3	1.8	56%
Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)	10 / 16	2.7	2.1	60%
TIPP Insights	10 / 11	2.0	1.3	67%

What this does and doesn't show. Their numbers were published before each election. Ours are our walk-forward record: for each cycle the model is fit only on earlier elections and forecasts that cycle, but it is run today, with today's code. That is the standard way to test a model, but it isn't the same as a forecast published at the time. Our 2026 forecasts are published before the election, so they will be.

This pairs raw scores on identical races. For a single ranking that adjusts for race difficulty, see the forecaster and pollster boards.