Who is forecasted today to win the South Dakota governor's race?
Updated Monday, October 26, 2026 · 8 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Larry Rhoden is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Rhoden a 99% chance of beating Dan Ahlers, with a predicted margin of Rhoden +19.9. That is a Safe R race: Rhoden wins in nearly every simulation, and Ahlers in the other 1%.
What the forecast is built on
The forecast starts from the 2 public polls in the forecast window, whose plain average is Rhoden +15.0. Each poll is corrected for its voter screen and its pollster's measured house effect first (the “Adjusted” column below).
- The polls, weighted and corrected, read Rhoden +19.5.
- The fundamentals (the state's presidential lean, incumbency, the last result and the national environment) read Rhoden +24.0.
- The published forecast blends the two, mostly on the polls, at Rhoden +19.9.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | Rhoden's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | >99% | Rhoden +19.7 |
| Oct 26 (today) | 99% | Rhoden +19.9 |
The polls
2 polls are in today's forecast. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source.The VotePredictor margin is the poll after correcting for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples.
What everyone else says
Prediction markets
| Market | Rhoden's chance |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | 98% |
| Kalshi | 98% |
| VotePredictor | 99% |
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid R | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Solid R | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Fox News | Solid R | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| NBC News | Solid R | Oct 23, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics | Solid R | Oct. 12, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Solid R | Oct. 22, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin | Solid R | Oct. 23, 2026 |
All 8 rating shops favor Rhoden. The markets average 98% for Rhoden; VotePredictor is in line with them.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.