Dan Ahlers vs. Larry Rhoden: South Dakota governor election, 2026

Dan Ahlers vs. Larry Rhoden. Incumbent elected to full term..

VotePredictor forecast (our model)

Larry Rhoden favored

Safe R

99%

chance to win

R+17.3

predicted margin

Poll-driven model · 4 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →

Democratic

Dan Ahlers

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Larry Rhoden

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

4 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.

PollsterDateMarginOur adj.

Concord Public Opinion Partners10-26R+9.0R+9.1

Emerson CollegeGrade A-10-20R+19.0R+19.5

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (via Wikipedia)Grade A-10-14R+20.0R+18.9

Concord Public Opinion Partners (via Wikipedia)10-08R+10.0R+10.1

Other forecasts

VotePredictor (ours)

R 99%

a probability from our model

Cook

Solid R≈ R 99%

as of Oct. 29, 2026

DDHQ

Safe R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

Fox

Solid R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 1, 2026

Solid R≈ R 99%

as of Oct. 29, 2026

NBC

Solid R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

RCP

Solid R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 1, 2026

Sabato

Safe R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 2, 2026

Silver

Solid R≈ R 99%

as of Nov. 3, 2026

The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Independent models

Who Shows Up · independent model ↗

R 99%R+21.8

as of 2026-11-03

Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.

Past results

Every South Dakota election for governor we hold a result for.

YearWinnerMargin

2022Kristi Noem(R)R+26.8

2018Kristi Noem(R)R+3.4

2014Dennis M. Daugaard(R)R+45.0

2010Dennis M. Daugaard(R)R+23.0

2006M. Michael Rounds(R)R+25.6

2002M. Michael Rounds(R)R+14.8

Candidate news

The Mystery of an Electronic ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ Road Sign in South Dakota

Photo courtesy Dan Ahlers/FacebookSIOUX FALLS—“Let’s Go Brandon,” the anti-Joe Biden catchphrase that has made waves this holiday season—as highlighted by an...

Daily Beast · December 29, 2021

The Mystery of an Electronic ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ Road Sign in South Dakota

Photo courtesy Dan Ahlers/Facebook SIOUX FALLS—“Let’s Go Brandon,” the anti-Joe Biden catchphrase that has made waves this holiday season as highlighted by an ex-cop uttering it directly to the president, is now officially in roadside prank territory.An elec…

Daily Beast · December 29, 2021

South Dakota's Mike Rounds faces off against Senate challenger Dan Ahlers: live results

Summary List Placement South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds looks to defend his US Senate seat against Democratic challenger Dan Ahlers, who is a Democratic state lawmaker. Rounds was elected to Congress in 2014 when he defeated Democrat Rick Weiland by 20.9 perce…

Business Insider · November 2, 2020

Native Americans face many issues in South Dakota

Both incumbent Senator Mike Rounds and Democratic challenger Dan Ahlers say race relations are an important topic for voters.

Blackhillsfox.com · October 13, 2020

Seven Senate Races You Won't Have To Stay Up Late To Call

2020 has already been a hell of a decade, hasn't it? The next ten years (October 12, 2020 to January 20, 2021) promise to be pretty nuts, too. With all the craziness out there, let's take a few minutes to look at several races for the US Senate that won't be …

Wonkette.com · October 11, 2020

Kristi Noem's embarrassing half-horse statue caps her spectacular downfall

The latest addition to Pierre’s Trail of Governors stands out. It’s not because it’s the only statue of a woman. It’s not because it’s the only one accompanied by half a horse. It represents a career of political tumult. A career from which it’s unlikely ther…

Raw Story · August 22, 2026

Governor and attorney general appeal to defend South Dakota’s ban on abortion-pill advertising

South Dakota Gov. Larry Rhoden and Attorney General Marty Jackley, both Republicans, filed an appeal Monday in defense of a new law that criminalizes abortion-pill advertising in the state. They're also seeking to set aside a lower court's order blocking enfo…

Biztoc.com · August 3, 2026

Kristi Noem's replacement crushes self-funding MAGA car dealer as Trump refuses to pick a side in historic race

After Kristi Noem was tapped to head President Donald Trump's Department of Homeland Security last year, her lieutenant governor, Larry Rhoden, became South Dakota's governor.

Dailymail.com · July 29, 2026