Democratic
Dan Ahlers
Major-party general-election nominee.
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South Dakota governor election, 2026
Dan Ahlers vs. Larry Rhoden. Incumbent nominated to full term.
VotePredictor forecast
Larry Rhoden favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+24.9
96%
chance to win
Fundamentals model · no poll: state lean, incumbency, the prior result and the national environment. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Larry Rhoden
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No verified 2026 general-election poll is currently available in the feed for this race.
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid R
as of Oct. 1, 2026
IE
Solid R
as of Oct. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe R
as of Oct. 6, 2026
RCP
Solid R
as of Oct. 5, 2026
Fox
Solid R
as of Oct. 6, 2026
Silver
Solid R
as of Oct. 7, 2026
DDHQ
Safe R
as of Oct. 2, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every South Dakota election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.