Who is forecasted today to win the Texas governor's race?
Updated Monday, October 26, 2026 · 8 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Greg Abbott is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Abbott a 88% chance of beating Gina Hinojosa, with a predicted margin of Abbott +4.9. That is a Likely R race: Abbott wins about six times in seven, and Hinojosa in the other 12%.
What the forecast is built on
The forecast starts from the 32 public polls in the forecast window, whose plain average is Abbott +2.3. Each poll is corrected for its voter screen and its pollster's measured house effect first (the “Adjusted” column below).
- The polls, weighted and corrected, read Abbott +3.8.
- The fundamentals (the state's presidential lean, incumbency, the last result and the national environment) read Abbott +16.0.
- The published forecast blends the two, mostly on the polls, at Abbott +4.9.
Misses of a few points are common, so a 4.9-point lead is a 88% chance and not a lock.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | Abbott's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 | 85% | Abbott +11.8 |
| May 7 | 82% | Abbott +10.2 |
| Jun 4 | 79% | Abbott +9.1 |
| Jul 2 | 81% | Abbott +9.8 |
| Aug 6 | 77% | Abbott +8.5 |
| Sep 1 | 83% | Abbott +8.8 |
| Oct 1 | 92% | Abbott +7.0 |
| Oct 19 | 86% | Abbott +5.0 |
| Oct 26 (today) | 88% | Abbott +4.9 |
The polls
32 polls are in today's forecast; 25 older ones have aged out and are shown dimmed. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
The polls behind it
57 polls · 32 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source.The VotePredictor margin is the poll after correcting for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples.
What everyone else says
Prediction markets
| Market | Abbott's chance |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | 68% |
| Kalshi | 68% |
| VotePredictor | 88% |
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | Toss-up | Oct. 12, 2026 |
| Cook Political Report | Lean R | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Lean R | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Fox News | Lean R | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Lean R | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| NBC News | Lean R | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R | Oct. 22, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin | Lean R | Oct. 23, 2026 |
7 of 8 rating shops favor Abbott, 1 calls it a toss-up and none favor Hinojosa. The markets average 68% for Abbott; VotePredictor is 20 points more confident in Abbott.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.