Democratic
Gina Hinojosa
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Texas governor election, 2026
Gina Hinojosa vs. Greg Abbott. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Greg Abbott favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+8.5
78%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 27 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Greg Abbott
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Wedgewood Polls | 2026-07-31 | R+6.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-07-30 | R+1.0 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-07-30 | R+6.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-07-27 | R+1.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-07-17 | R+3.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-27 | R+7.0 |
| SoCal Strategies | 2026-06-21 | R+10.7 |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project | 2026-06-12 | R+7.0 |
| Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov | 2026-06-12 | R+7.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-06-04 | R+5.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-06-04 | R+8.0 |
| Texas A&M University /ReconMR | 2026-06-04 | R+6.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-05-28 | R+5.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-05-28 | R+5.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-05-23 | R+4.0 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-05-06 | R+6.0 |
| Texas Southern University / YouGov | 2026-05-05 | R+6.0 |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project | 2026-04-20 | R+6.0 |
| The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov | 2026-04-20 | R+6.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-04-20 | R+5.0 |
| University of Texas at Tyler | 2026-02-22 | R+8.0 |
| UT Tyler | 2026-02-22 | R+8.0 |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project | 2026-02-16 | R+10.0 |
| GBAO | 2026-02-03 | R+3.0 |
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGov | 2026-01-31 | R+7.0 |
| University of Houston/YouGov | 2026-01-31 | R+7.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-01-12 | R+7.9 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Solid R
IE
Likely R
Sabato
Safe R
WH
Lean R
RCP
Solid R
Fox
Solid R
VoteHub
Lean R
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Candidate news
Another Poll Shows Talarico Leading Paxton
A new Texas A&M Bush School poll shows James Talarico (D) up by four points over Ken Paxton (R), 47% to 43%. In the gubernatorial race, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads by just one point over Gina Hinojosa (D), 46% to 45%.
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday
Greg Abbott Just Single Digits Ahead of Democrat in Texas, Polling Shows
Texas Governor Greg Abbott is leading Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa by 6 percentage points in the Texas gubernatorial race, according to a new poll released roughly three months before voters decide whether to grant the Republican a fourth ter…
Biztoc.com · August 5, 2026
MAGA governor taunted as Fox News poll paints dire midterm picture
A recent Fox News poll showed Democratic Texas gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa within the margin of error of defeating Gov. Greg Abbott, and critics wasted little time taunting the MAGA governor over his potential election loss.Despite President Don…
Raw Story · July 31, 2026
Gina Hinojosa closes gap on Texas Gov. Greg Abbott in new poll
A new poll shows Democrat Gina Hinojosa within 3 points of Gov. Greg Abbott, while the Texas AG race between Middleton and Johnson sits at 1 point.
USA Today · July 29, 2026
Greg Abbott's Chances of Losing to Gina Hinojosa Under 100 Days Til Midterm
Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa are locked in a tight gubernatorial race, according to a new poll that finds Abbott holding a slim lead within the margin of error. The poll comes around three months before Texas voters will decide whethe…
Biztoc.com · July 28, 2026
Trump Calls Texas’ Data Center Opposition a “Mistake”
President Donald Trump this week criticized Texas for being anti-data centers, just days after Republican Gov. Greg Abbott paused industry-wide approvals until the companies provide the state with more information on things like power and water use. “I saw Te…
Insurance Journal · Yesterday
Abbott Orders Audit of Texas Data Centers, Pausing Future Grid Connections
Earlier this week, Gov. Greg Abbott ordered state regulators to conduct a comprehensive audit of data centers seeking to connect to the Texas grid, effectively pausing future data center projects until the review is complete. Abbott’s order directs the Public…
Daily Signal · August 6, 2026
Disillusioned Republican says he can't bring himself to vote for some of his own party
LUBBOCK — Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller said Thursday that Republicans are going to lose some statewide elections this year because of data centers, which has become a heated issue for Texas across the state. In an interview with The Texas Tribune…
Raw Story · August 6, 2026