Democratic
Gina Hinojosa
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Gina Hinojosa vs. Greg Abbott: Texas governor election, 2026
Gina Hinojosa vs. Greg Abbott. Incumbent lost re-election. Democratic gain..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Greg Abbott favored
Lean R
84%
chance to win
R+3.7
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 43 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Greg Abbott
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Pat Dixon · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
71 polls · 43 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center10-252026-10-25R+3.0R+3.7
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center09-192026-09-19R+4.0R+4.7
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center07-302026-07-30R+6.0R+6.7
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center05-062026-05-06R+6.0R+6.7
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 84%
a probability from our model
Cook
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Tilt R≈ R 60%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every Texas election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Hinojosa Seeks ‘Balance’ With Musk, Regulations in Blue Texas
Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa outlined plans to "balance" keeping Texas' reputation as a pro-business state alongside plans for stiffer regulations, including on AI data centers. #elonmusk #texas #trump #politics #ai #news #usa Hinojosa signaled a shift in he…
Biztoc.com · Today
‘That Stops When I’m Governor’: Dem Texas Governor-Elect Warns Big Tech And Elon Musk
The newly elected Democrat, Gina Hinojosa, appeared on CNN after defeating GOP incumbent Greg Abbott in the midterm race.
HuffPost · Today
Gina Hinojosa begins work to take office as Texas’ first Democratic governor in decades - AP News
Gina Hinojosa begins work to take office as Texas’ first Democratic governor in decadesAP News Texas Led the Conservative Overhaul of Education. What Now?The New York Times Gina Hinojosa Can Replace Mike Morath. Ending His School Takeovers Will Be Harder.Texa…
Slashdot.org · Today
Gina Hinojosa Appoints Republican in First Move as Governor-Elect
Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, a Democrat, has named a Republican former lawmaker to her transition leadership team, making a bipartisan appointment as she prepares to take office in January. Former state Representative Ernest Bailes, a conservative from…
Biztoc.com · Today
Georgia is the 'underappreciated risk' for data center backlash
The AI trade has kept its eyes on the data center-heavy state of Texas in the wake of the midterm election blue wave that saw data center critic Gina Hinojosa take over as governor from Republican Greg Abbott. But investors would be wise to pay equal — or mor…
Biztoc.com · Today
“Elections Matter” – Houston Mayor Announces Order LIMITING ICE Cooperation Following Open Borders Radical Gina Hinojosa’s Win in Texas Gubernatorial Race (VIDEO)
Texas Democrats are not wasting time following far-left Democrat Gina Hinojosa's stunning win in the gubernatorial race on Tuesday, where she unseated longtime GOP governor Greg Abbott. The post “Elections Matter” – Houston Mayor Announces Order LIMITING ICE …
Thegatewaypundit.com · Today
Houston mayor says 'elections matter' as he moves to curb city's cooperation with ICE
HOUSTON (AP) — The mayor of Houston on Friday said the city would limit cooperation with federal immigration authorities, heralding “a new model” of immigration enforcement after Democrats won power in Texas for the first time in decades. Mayor John Whitmire…
Yahoo Entertainment · Today
Gina Hinojosa names governor transition team, including anti-voucher Republican - Houston Chronicle
Gina Hinojosa names governor transition team, including anti-voucher RepublicanHouston Chronicle Texas Led the Conservative Overhaul of Education. What Now?The New York Times Texas’s new Democratic governor Hinojosa vows to undo policies she calls divisiveThe…
Slashdot.org · Today