Democratic
Gina Hinojosa
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Texas governor election, 2026
Gina Hinojosa vs. Greg Abbott. Incumbent renominated.
VotePredictor forecast
Greg Abbott favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+6.9
83%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 36 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Greg Abbott
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-09-19 | R+4.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-09-14 | R+3.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-09-11 | D+4.0 |
| YouGov | 2026-09-04 | EVEN |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 2026-09-01 | R+3.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-08-24 | R+7.0 |
| The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov | 2026-08-13 | R+5.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-08-10 | R+4.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 2026-07-31 | R+6.0 |
| Cygnal | 2026-07-31 | R+3.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-07-30 | R+1.0 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-07-30 | R+6.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-07-27 | R+1.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-07-17 | R+3.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-27 | R+7.0 |
| SoCal Strategies | 2026-06-21 | R+10.7 |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project | 2026-06-12 | R+7.0 |
| Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov | 2026-06-12 | R+7.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-06-04 | R+8.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-06-04 | R+5.0 |
| Texas A&M University /ReconMR | 2026-06-04 | R+6.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-05-28 | R+5.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-05-28 | R+5.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-05-23 | R+4.0 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-05-06 | R+6.0 |
| Texas Southern University / YouGov | 2026-05-05 | R+6.0 |
| The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov | 2026-04-20 | R+6.0 |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project | 2026-04-20 | R+6.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-04-20 | R+5.0 |
| University of Texas at Tyler | 2026-02-22 | R+8.0 |
| UT Tyler | 2026-02-22 | R+8.0 |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project | 2026-02-16 | R+10.0 |
| GBAO | 2026-02-03 | R+3.0 |
| University of Houston/YouGov | 2026-01-31 | R+7.0 |
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGov | 2026-01-31 | R+7.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-01-12 | R+7.9 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Likely R
as of Sep. 17, 2026
IE
Likely R
as of Sep. 17., 2026
Sabato
Likely R
as of Sep. 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Fox
Lean R
as of Sep. 22, 2026
Silver
Likely R
as of Sep. 17, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R
as of Sep. 17, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every Texas election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Gina Hinojosa: “We Flip Texas, and It’s Over”
Lajward Zahra Texas gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa is proposing a progressive agenda. In the primary, she got twice as many votes as Beto O’Rourke did in 2018. The post Gina Hinojosa: “We Flip Texas, and It’s Over” appeared first on The Nation.
Thenation.com · Today
Texas Gov. Abbott orders data center permit halt weeks after issuing moratorium
Data centers have been a flash point in the 2026 midterm elections, including Abbott's bid for reelection against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa.
CNBC · Yesterday
MAGA governor loses lead after Dem rival goes ‘straight at self-inflicted wound’: analysis
For the first time this election cycle, Democratic Texas gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa edged ahead of Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in a nonpartisan poll, a shift journalist Alisa Valdes-Rodriguez argued Monday came from Hinojosa targeting her opponent'…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Texas: Gina Hinojosa Surges, Takes the Lead Against Greg Abbott in Governor’s Race
The biggest political news of the past few days is that the nonpartisan, highly respected Siena College poll reported that Democrat Gina Hinojosa is leading rightwing Governor Greg Abbott in Texas by four points, and Democrat James Talarico is leading Republi…
Dianeravitch.net · Yesterday
‘It hurts us’: GOP strategist fumes over ‘unforced error’ as party faces ‘historic loss’
A veteran Republican strategist is sounding the alarm over what he views as a costly, self-inflicted wound threatening the GOP just weeks before the crucial midterm elections.“It’s frustrating to see some of these comments,” Brendan Steinhauser, who managed f…
Raw Story · September 18, 2026
Texas Governor Orders Halt To New Data Centers Weeks After Issuing Moratorium
Texas Governor Orders Halt To New Data Centers Weeks After Issuing Moratorium One month after Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered a pause on Texas data center approvals pending an audit, overnight the governor doubled down and ordered the state’s environment…
Biztoc.com · Today
Texas Orders Halt to New Data Center Permits Pending Audit
Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered the state’s environmental watchdog to withhold permits for new data centers until an audit of risks to the power grid is complete. No authorizations can be given until the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or …
Insurance Journal · Today
Finally something California and Texas can agree on: regulating data centers
Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo; Nell Redmond/AP Photo California and Texas are both limiting data center development. Gov. Gavin Newsom announced new regulations, while Gov. Greg Abbott has paused new permits. Data centers have drawn bipartisan backlash due to con…
Biztoc.com · Today