Who is forecasted today to win the Alaska at-large House race?
Updated Monday, October 26, 2026 · 8 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Nick Begich III is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Begich a 99% chance of beating Eric Hafner, with a predicted margin of Begich +27.2. That is a Safe R race: Begich wins in nearly every simulation, and Hafner in the other 1%.
What the forecast is built on
On its 2026 lines the district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.5 relative to the nation. The House model starts from that lean, adds the national environment as a uniform swing, and weighs incumbency (Nick Begich III holds the seat) and fundraising in the win probability.
- District polls: 4 polls averaging Begich +40.3, blended with the model by how much each is worth.
- The published forecast: Begich +27.2, a 99% chance for Begich.
How the forecast has moved
Daily tracking of this race began on Oct 26; the trend fills in from here.
The polls
4 polls are in today's forecast; 1 older one has aged out and is shown dimmed. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstWhat everyone else says
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | Oct 20, 2026 |
All 3 rating shops favor Begich.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.