VotePredictor
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Alaska District 1 election, 2026

Eric Hafner vs. Nick Begich III. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Nick Begich III favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+27.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+13.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
7, averaging R+40.6
Forecast spread
±5.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 7 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 58% of the weight: the model alone said R+8.4.

Democratic

Eric Hafner

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Bill Hill · Independent
  • Jim McDermott · Libertarian

Polls

The polls behind it

8 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
AtlasIntel (via Wikipedia)Grade A-11-01R+41.0
Data for Progress (via Wikipedia)Grade B+10-16R+45.0
Public Policy Polling (via Wikipedia)Grade A-10-15R+40.0
Alaska Survey Research (via Wikipedia)10-03R+44.0
New York Times/Siena University (via Wikipedia)10-01R+39.0
Fabrizio Ward/ Impact Research (via Wikipedia)09-11R+36.0
Bullfinch Group (via Wikipedia)09-06R+37.0
Alaska Survey Research08-05R+35.2

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 58% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Nick Begich IIIREP · incumbent$6.4M raised
Spent $4.8MCash on hand $1.8MDebts $226k19% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. GROW THE MAJORITY$879k
  2. DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$398k
  3. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$348k
  4. INVEST IN AMERICA 2026$41k
  5. AMERICAN BATTLEGROUND FUND$38k

Industries

  1. Retired$902k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$122k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$98k
  4. Not Reported$45k
  5. Energy, Utilities & Mining$34k

States

  1. AK$779k
  2. TX$238k
  3. CA$150k
  4. FL$148k
  5. VA$65k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Bill HillIND$2.6M raised
Spent $2.5MCash on hand $118k21% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. HARDWORKING ALASKANS VICTORY FUND$28k
  2. IMPOSSIBLE TO INEVITABLE$18k
  3. HARRIS, WILLIAM SR$14k
  4. BENDICH, ARNOLD$9k
  5. CARLSON, BARBARA L$9k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$858k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$214k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$101k
  4. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$90k
  5. Technology & Communications$30k

States

  1. AK$466k
  2. CA$378k
  3. NY$226k
  4. MA$98k
  5. WA$70k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Eric HafnerDEM— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AK-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Alaska's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Nicholas J. Begich III(R)R+2.5
2022Mary S. Peltola(D)D+9.9
2020Don Young(R)R+9.1
2018Don Young(R)R+6.6
2016Don Young(R)R+14.3
2014Don Young(R)R+10.0
2010Don Young(R)R+38.4
2008Don Young(R)R+5.2
2006Don Young(R)R+16.6

Candidate news

Who is Mary Peltola? Democrat leader who lost her husband in a plane crash and her mother in the same year; now faces a tough US Senate battle

Mary Peltola is a Democratic politician from Alaska. She made history in 2022 by becoming the first Alaska native and first woman elected to represent the state in the US House. She served in Congress from 2022 to 2025. She lost her re-election bid in 2024 to…

The Times of India · November 4, 2026
Alaska midterm election results: Is Nick Begich III winning? When will final results be declared?

As the counting progresses for the US House of Representatives midterm election in Alaska, Republican Nick Begich III is currently in the lead with nearly half of the votes accounted for. Independent candidate Bill Hill trails behind and will need a substanti…

The Times of India · November 4, 2026
Trump Loses His Mind Over Key Senate Race Hours Before Election

Republicans appear to be on the brink of losing power in Congress—and Donald Trump is not handling it well.The president freaked out on Monday night in a series of Truth Social posts about the Alaska Senate race, where Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is not o…

The New Republic · November 3, 2026
Red state that's turning blue faster than any other may be key to flipping Senate: report

One of the most dependably Republican states in the country has swung toward Democrats faster than any other state since 2008, and that shift could help decide control of the Senate next month.An analysis by the Washington Sun found that Alaska moved 17 point…

Raw Story · October 16, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: AL-1