Alaska District 1 election, 2026

Eric Hafner vs. Nick Begich III.

VotePredictor forecast

Nick Begich III favored

Safe R · predicted margin R+21.4

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+12.2

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Eric Hafner

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Nick Begich III

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Bill Hill · Independent
Jim McDermott · Libertarian

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

PollsterDateMargin

Alaska Survey Research2026-08-05R+35.2

Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AK-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Alaska's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2024Nicholas J. Begich III(R)R+2.1

2022Mary S. Peltola(D)D+9.9

2020Don Young(R)R+9.1

2018Don Young(R)R+6.6

2016Don Young(R)R+14.3

2014Don Young(R)R+10.0

2010Don Young(R)R+38.4

2008Don Young(R)R+5.2

2006Don Young(R)R+16.6

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: AL-1