Democratic
Eric Hafner
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Nick Begich III favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+19.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+13.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging R+35.2Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+9.3.
Republican
Nick Begich III
Incumbent representative for AK-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Bill Hill · Independent
- Jim McDermott · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Alaska Survey Research2026-08-05R+35.2
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AK-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Alaska's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
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Common Dreams · October 8, 2026
JD Vance Brags About Getting Nothing Done While He Was a Senator
Vice President JD Vance spoke for roughly 35 minutes at a MAGA rally in Fairbanks, Alaska, Monday evening. Within that time, he managed to admit that he really didn’t do very much while representing his home state of Ohio.The confession came on the back of an…
The New Republic · October 6, 2026
GOP shifts midterm priorities as concerns turn to defending seats in red states
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Yahoo Entertainment · September 22, 2026
Transcript: Trump Tailspins as GOP Leaks Humiliating Truth: He’s Toxic
The following is a lightly edited transcript of the September 8 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.Donald Tr…
The New Republic · September 8, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗
Nearby in the directory: AL-1