Who is forecasted today to win the Arizona 1st District House race?
Updated Monday, October 26, 2026 · 8 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Amish Shah is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Shah a 78% chance of beating Jay Feely, with a predicted margin of Shah +4.1. That is a Lean D race: Shah wins about three times in four, and Feely in the other 22%.
What the forecast is built on
On its 2026 lines the district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.5 relative to the nation. The House model starts from that lean, adds the national environment as a uniform swing, and weighs incumbency (David Schweikert holds the seat) and fundraising in the win probability.
- District polls: 2 polls averaging Shah +4.4, blended with the model by how much each is worth.
- The published forecast: Shah +4.1, a 78% chance for Shah.
Misses of a few points are common, so a 4.1-point lead is a 78% chance and not a lock.
How the forecast has moved
Daily tracking of this race began on Oct 26; the trend fills in from here.
The polls
2 polls are in today's forecast. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstWhat everyone else says
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D | Oct 15, 2026 |
All 3 rating shops favor Shah.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.