Arizona District 1 election, 2026

Amish Shah vs. Jay Feely.

VotePredictor forecast

Amish Shah favored

Lean D · predicted margin D+3.3

69%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+2.0

2026 national environment

D+5.5

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Amish Shah

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Jay Feely

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Monica Alponte · Libertarian

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AZ-1. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AZ-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: AR-4 · AZ-2