Arizona District 1 election, 2026

Amish Shah vs. Jay Feely.

VotePredictor forecast

Amish Shah favored

Toss-up · predicted margin D+1.4

58%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+2.0

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Amish Shah

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Jay Feely

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Monica Alponte · Libertarian

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for AZ-1. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for AZ-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Arizona's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2018Tom O'Halleran(D)D+7.7

2016Tom O'Halleran(D)D+7.3

2014Ann Kirkpatrick(D)D+5.2

2012Ann Kirkpatrick(D)D+3.6

2010Paul Gosar(R)R+6.0

2006Richard Renzi(R)R+8.3

2004Richard Renzi(R)R+22.3

2002Richard Renzi(R)R+3.6

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: AR-4 · AZ-2