Who is forecasted today to win the Florida 7th District House race?
Updated Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 7 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Ryan Elijah is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Elijah a 72% chance of beating Bale Dalton, with a predicted margin of Elijah +3.5. That is a Lean R race: Elijah wins about two times in three, and Dalton in the other 28%.
What the forecast is built on
On its 2026 lines the district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.1 relative to the nation. The House model starts from that lean, adds the national environment as a uniform swing, and weighs incumbency and fundraising in the win probability.
- District polls: 1 poll averaging Tied, blended with the model by how much each is worth.
- The published forecast: Elijah +3.5, a 72% chance for Elijah.
Misses of a few points are common, so a 3.5-point lead is a 72% chance and not a lock.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | Elijah's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | 72% | Elijah +3.5 |
| Oct 27 (today) | 72% | Elijah +3.5 |
The polls
1 poll is in today's forecast. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
What everyone else says
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Likely R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | Oct 20, 2026 |
All 3 rating shops favor Elijah.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.