Democratic
Bale Dalton
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 7 election, 2026
Bale Dalton vs. Ryan Elijah on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Ryan Elijah favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+3.0
68%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+12.62026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging EVENForecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+4.8.
Republican
Ryan Elijah
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Christopher Dennison · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Bale DaltonDEM$2.3M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $202k39% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$523k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$156k
- Legal & Professional Services$124k
- Retired$106k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$99k
States
- FL$680k
- CA$224k
- NY$185k
- MA$112k
- DC$94k
Ryan ElijahREP$818k raised
Spent $645kCash on hand $173kDebts $126k38% from donors under $200Self-funded $134k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- ELIJAH, RYAN$134k
- PRIME TIME FUND$38k
- HOLM, DIANE$7k
- PASSORI, ALAN$7k
- ASHLOCK, ALAN$7k
Industries
- Retired$79k
- Not Reported$50k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$40k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$25k
- Homemaker$11k
States
- FL$466k
- OH$14k
- IN$7k
- GA$4k
- TX$3k
Christopher DennisonLIB$11k raised
Spent $10kCash on hand $600% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$7k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$4k
States
- FL$4k
- MD$4k
- NM$4k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-7; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 7th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗