Who is forecasted today to win the Minnesota 2nd District House race?

the Democrat is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives the Democrat a 99% chance of beating Eric Pratt, with a predicted margin of the Democrat +10.8. That is a Safe D race: the Democrat wins in nearly every simulation, and Pratt in the other 1%.

What the forecast is built on

On its 2026 lines the district's 2024 presidential lean is D+7.5 relative to the nation. The House model starts from that lean, adds the national environment as a uniform swing, and weighs incumbency (Angie Craig holds the seat) and fundraising in the win probability.

• No public district poll, so the margin is the model's, blended with Cook Political Report's rating.
• The rating shops: the win probability also weighs Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato's current ratings; the margin does not.
• The published forecast: the Democrat +10.8, a 99% chance for the Democrat.

Can you trust this forecast?

Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.