Who is forecasted today to win the Texas 4th District House race?
Updated Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 7 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Pat Fallon is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Fallon a 99% chance of beating Jason Pearce, with a predicted margin of Fallon +18.5. That is a Safe R race: Fallon wins in nearly every simulation, and Pearce in the other 1%.
What the forecast is built on
On its 2026 lines the district's 2024 presidential lean is R+23.7 relative to the nation. The House model starts from that lean, adds the national environment as a uniform swing, and weighs incumbency (Pat Fallon holds the seat) and fundraising in the win probability.
- No public district poll, so the margin is the model's.
- The rating shops: the win probability also weighs Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato's current ratings; the margin does not.
- The published forecast: Fallon +18.5, a 99% chance for Fallon.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | Fallon's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | 99% | Fallon +18.5 |
| Oct 27 (today) | 99% | Fallon +18.5 |
What everyone else says
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | Oct 15, 2026 |
All 2 rating shops favor Fallon.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.