Democratic
Jason Pearce
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 4 election, 2026
Jason Pearce vs. Pat Fallon on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Pat Fallon favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+19.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+25.22026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Pat Fallon
Incumbent representative for TX-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Pat FallonREP · incumbent$1.0M raised
Spent $585kCash on hand $1.1MDebts $25k0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$50k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$17k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$15k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$14k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$11k
States
- TX$166k
- VA$40k
- CA$24k
- FL$11k
- IL$11k
Jason PearceDEM$28k raised
Spent $25kCash on hand $3kDebts $5k30% from donors under $200Self-funded $9k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$7k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$250
States
- TX$9k
- VA$400
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Transcript: Trump Rages over Texas Senate Race—and Even Fox Is Rattled
The following is a lightly edited transcript of the October 19 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.In the las…
The New Republic · October 19, 2026
GOP Rep Still Blames Biden For Trump's Nightmare Affordability Crisis
No matter what lie Trump administration officials or Republican members of Congress tell, Fox Business and CNBC hosts readily agree with those lies to cover up Trump's horrific tenure as president and then congratulate the liars telling them. Case in point. C…
Crooksandliars.com · July 28, 2026
Congress is a huge target for spies. Members and staff need a wake-up call and training
Rep. Pat Fallon says China, Russia and Iran actively target Congress, calls for mandatory counterintelligence training through the STOP Resolution.
Fox News · May 18, 2026
Jewish Dem groups keeping distance from Maine candidate with Nazi tattoo
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic nominee for vice president last cycle, opted to fly to Maine to stump for Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who is running for Senate and who has a Nazi tattoo. Several members of Congress responded. “Don’t forget to ask…
Freerepublic.com · May 3, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗