Texas District 4 election, 2026

Jason Pearce vs. Pat Fallon on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast

Pat Fallon favored

Safe R · predicted margin R+24.7

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+22.9

2026 national environment

D+5.5

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Jason Pearce

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Pat Fallon

Incumbent representative for TX-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-4. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

GOP Rep Still Blames Biden For Trump's Nightmare Affordability Crisis

No matter what lie Trump administration officials or Republican members of Congress tell, Fox Business and CNBC hosts readily agree with those lies to cover up Trump's horrific tenure as president and then congratulate the liars telling them. Case in point. C…

Crooksandliars.com · July 28, 2026

Congress is a huge target for spies. Members and staff need a wake-up call and training

Rep. Pat Fallon says China, Russia and Iran actively target Congress, calls for mandatory counterintelligence training through the STOP Resolution.

Fox News · May 18, 2026

Jewish Dem groups keeping distance from Maine candidate with Nazi tattoo

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic nominee for vice president last cycle, opted to fly to Maine to stump for Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who is running for Senate and who has a Nazi tattoo. Several members of Congress responded. “Don’t forget to ask…

Freerepublic.com · May 3, 2026

Republican on Armed Services Expects Deployment in Iran

A Republican lawmaker who helps oversee military personnel in the House says he expects US ground forces to be sent into Iran. Rep. Pat Fallon of Texas, chair of the Armed Services subcommittee on military personnel and a former Air Force officer, told Fox Bu…

Newser · April 7, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: TX-38 · TX-5