Democratic
Jason Pearce
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 4 election, 2026
Jason Pearce vs. Pat Fallon on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Pat Fallon favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+19.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+25.22026 national environment
D+6.5District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Pat Fallon
Incumbent representative for TX-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
GOP Rep Still Blames Biden For Trump's Nightmare Affordability Crisis
No matter what lie Trump administration officials or Republican members of Congress tell, Fox Business and CNBC hosts readily agree with those lies to cover up Trump's horrific tenure as president and then congratulate the liars telling them. Case in point. C…
Crooksandliars.com · July 28, 2026
Congress is a huge target for spies. Members and staff need a wake-up call and training
Rep. Pat Fallon says China, Russia and Iran actively target Congress, calls for mandatory counterintelligence training through the STOP Resolution.
Fox News · May 18, 2026
Jewish Dem groups keeping distance from Maine candidate with Nazi tattoo
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic nominee for vice president last cycle, opted to fly to Maine to stump for Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who is running for Senate and who has a Nazi tattoo. Several members of Congress responded. “Don’t forget to ask…
Freerepublic.com · May 3, 2026
Republican on Armed Services Expects Deployment in Iran
A Republican lawmaker who helps oversee military personnel in the House says he expects US ground forces to be sent into Iran. Rep. Pat Fallon of Texas, chair of the Armed Services subcommittee on military personnel and a former Air Force officer, told Fox Bu…
Newser · April 7, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗