Who is forecasted today to win the Alabama Senate race?
Updated Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 7 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Barry Moore is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Moore a 99% chance of beating Everett Wess, with a predicted margin of Moore +23.3. That is a Safe R race: Moore wins in nearly every simulation, and Wess in the other 1%.
What the forecast is built on
The forecast starts from the 3 public polls in the forecast window, whose plain average is Moore +19.5. Each poll is corrected for its voter screen and its pollster's measured house effect first (the “Adjusted” column below).
- The polls, weighted and corrected, read Moore +24.1.
- The fundamentals (the state's presidential lean, incumbency, the last result and the national environment) read Moore +16.0.
- The published forecast blends the two, mostly on the polls, at Moore +23.3.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | Moore's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 16 | 92% | Moore +22.6 |
| Aug 6 | 92% | Moore +22.6 |
| Sep 1 | 92% | Moore +21.9 |
| Oct 1 | >99% | Moore +26.4 |
| Oct 20 | >99% | Moore +26.3 |
| Oct 27 (today) | 99% | Moore +23.3 |
The polls
3 polls are in today's forecast; 1 older one has aged out and is shown dimmed. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
The polls behind it
4 polls · 3 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source.The VotePredictor margin is the poll after correcting for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples.
What everyone else says
Prediction markets
| Market | Moore's chance |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | 99% |
| Kalshi | 99% |
| VotePredictor | 99% |
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid R | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Solid R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| The Economist | Solid R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| FiftyPlusOne | Solid R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Fox News | Solid R | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | Oct 15, 2026 |
| NBC News | Solid R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics | Solid R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Solid R | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin | Solid R | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Split Ticket | Solid R | Oct 27, 2026 |
All 11 rating shops favor Moore. The markets average 99% for Moore; VotePredictor is in line with them.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.