Who is forecasted today to win the Kentucky Senate race?
Updated Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 7 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Andy Barr is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Barr a 99% chance of beating Charles Booker, with a predicted margin of Barr +16.3. That is a Safe R race: Barr wins in nearly every simulation, and Booker in the other 1%.
What the forecast is built on
The forecast starts from the 1 public poll in the forecast window, whose plain average is Barr +9.0. Each poll is corrected for its voter screen and its pollster's measured house effect first (the “Adjusted” column below).
- The polls, weighted and corrected, read Barr +16.5.
- The fundamentals (the state's presidential lean, incumbency, the last result and the national environment) read Barr +15.8.
- The published forecast blends the two, mostly on the polls, at Barr +16.3.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | Barr's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | 80% | Barr +13.2 |
| Oct 1 | >99% | Barr +16.5 |
| Oct 20 | >99% | Barr +16.2 |
| Oct 27 (today) | 99% | Barr +16.3 |
The polls
1 poll is in today's forecast. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source.The VotePredictor margin is the poll after correcting for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples.
What everyone else says
Prediction markets
| Market | Barr's chance |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | 98% |
| VotePredictor | 99% |
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid R | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Solid R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| The Economist | Solid R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| FiftyPlusOne | Solid R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Fox News | Solid R | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | Oct 15, 2026 |
| NBC News | Solid R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics | Solid R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Solid R | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin | Solid R | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Split Ticket | Solid R | Oct 27, 2026 |
All 11 rating shops favor Barr. The markets average 98% for Barr; VotePredictor is in line with them.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.