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Charles Booker vs. Andy Barr: Kentucky U.S. Senate election, 2026

Charles Booker vs. Andy Barr. Incumbent retiring. Republican hold..

VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Andy Barr favored
Safe R
99%
chance to win
R+16.2
predicted margin

Poll-driven model · 1 matched poll. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →

Democratic

Charles Booker

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Christopher Campbell · Independent

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.

PollsterDateMarginOur adj.
Global Strategy Group (via Wikipedia)Grade C08-27R+9.0R+13.3

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Andy BarrREP$12.5M raised
Spent $14.7MCash on hand $1.6M7% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. FRIENDS OF ANDY BARR COMMITTEE$2.7M
  2. BARR FOR KY SENATE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2026$53k
  3. ONE TEAM SENATE MAJORITY$33k
  4. DRESNER, LINDA$21k
  5. GROSS, WALTER L III$14k

Industries

  1. Not Reported$1.7M
  2. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$444k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$308k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$181k
  5. Technology & Communications$59k

States

  1. KY$2.8M
  2. FL$428k
  3. CA$344k
  4. NY$294k
  5. TX$260k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Charles BookerDEM$1.9M raised
Spent $1.6MCash on hand $304kDebts $131k57% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. ALLGEIER, DAVID E.$7k
  2. BINGHAM, EMILY$7k
  3. CRAMER, TOM$7k
  4. FLAHAUT, KEVIN$7k
  5. FRENCH, GARRETT$7k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$352k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$96k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$22k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$15k
  5. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$13k

States

  1. KY$437k
  2. CA$94k
  3. MA$61k
  4. NY$32k
  5. IL$25k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

VotePredictor (ours)
R 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026

The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Independent models

Who Shows Up · independent model ↗
R 98%R+18.8
as of 2026-11-03

Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.

Past results

Every U.S. Senate election in Kentucky we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.

YearWinnerMargin
2020Mitch McConnell(R)R+19.5
2016Rand Paul(R)R+14.6
2014Mitch McConnell(R)R+15.5
2010Rand Paul(R)R+11.5
2008Mitch McConnell(R)R+5.9
2004Jim Bunning(R)R+1.3
2002Mitch McConnell(R)R+29.4
1998Jim Bunning(R)R+0.6

Candidate news

Republican Andy Barr Defeats Democrat Opponent Charles Booker in Kentucky U.S. Senate Race

Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) defeated his Democrat opponent, Charles Booker, in the U.S. Senate race for the seat being vacated by Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY). The post Republican Andy Barr Defeats Democrat Opponent Charles Booker in Kentucky U.S. Senate Race appear…

Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Former President Obama endorses Booker in Kentucky Senate race

Charles Booker is running against Republican Rep. Andy Barr to succeed Sen. Mitch McConnell.

CBS News · November 1, 2026
From Voting Rights to Economic Justice, The Root Gets Politicians on the Record Before Midterms

From Keisha Lance Bottoms’ focus on kitchen-table economics to Angie Nixon’s push for voting access and Abdul El-Sayed’s call for policy accountability, the issues driving the 2026 midterms go beyond campaign promises impacting Black communities across the na…

The Root · October 26, 2026
EXCLUSIVE: Charles Booker On Whether Dems Have Earned the Black Vote

Ahead of midterm, Charles Booker, the U.S. Senate Democratic nominee in Kentucky, sits down with The Root with a message Black folks need to hear.Read more...

The Root · October 17, 2026
The Race to Replace Mitch McConnell: Latest Polls, Odds as Senator Returns

Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell returned to the Senate this week following a months-long absence, as Democrat Charles Booker seeks to defeat Republican Representative Andy Barr to flip the seat in the traditionally conservative state. McConnell suffered a fa…

Biztoc.com · September 15, 2026
Navy vet topples GOP seat in Kentucky Trump country

Democrats flipped a House seat in the heart of a state President Donald Trump has carried three times, according to Tuesday night projections.Democrat Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor, defeated Republican Ralph Alvarado in Kentucky’s 6…

Raw Story · November 4, 2026
Republicans win Senate races in Florida, Kentucky, Wyoming

Republicans kept three United States Senate seats as Ashley Moody won in Florida, Andy Barr secured victory in Kentucky and Harriet Hageman prevailed in Wyoming, according to projections by the Associ...

Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
JUST IN: Trump-Endorsed Kentucky Republican Andy Barr Wins McConnell’s Senate Seat

Trump-endorsed Kentucky Republican Andy Barr won Mitch McConnell's open senate seat. The post JUST IN: Trump-Endorsed Kentucky Republican Andy Barr Wins McConnell’s Senate Seat appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.

Thegatewaypundit.com · November 4, 2026