Who is forecasted today to win the Michigan Senate race?
Updated Monday, October 26, 2026 · 8 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Abdul El-Sayed is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives El-Sayed a 73% chance of beating Mike Rogers, with a predicted margin of El-Sayed +2.0. That is a Lean D race: El-Sayed wins about three times in four, and Rogers in the other 27%.
What the forecast is built on
The forecast starts from the 17 public polls in the forecast window, whose plain average is El-Sayed +2.9. Each poll is corrected for its voter screen and its pollster's measured house effect first (the “Adjusted” column below).
- The polls, weighted and corrected, read El-Sayed +1.5.
- The fundamentals (the state's presidential lean, incumbency, the last result and the national environment) read El-Sayed +6.0.
- The published forecast blends the two, mostly on the polls, at El-Sayed +2.0.
Misses of a few points are common, so a 2.0-point lead is a 73% chance and not a lock.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | El-Sayed's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 | 44% | Rogers +2.3 |
| May 7 | 35% | Rogers +4.1 |
| Jun 4 | 43% | Rogers +1.7 |
| Jul 2 | 43% | Rogers +1.7 |
| Aug 6 | 38% | Rogers +2.9 |
| Sep 1 | 47% | Rogers +0.6 |
| Oct 1 | 76% | El-Sayed +2.7 |
| Oct 19 | 64% | El-Sayed +1.3 |
| Oct 26 (today) | 73% | El-Sayed +2.0 |
The polls
17 polls are in today's forecast; 20 older ones have aged out and are shown dimmed. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
The polls behind it
37 polls · 17 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source.The VotePredictor margin is the poll after correcting for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples.
What everyone else says
Prediction markets
| Market | El-Sayed's chance |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | 67% |
| Kalshi | 66% |
| VotePredictor | 73% |
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Silver Bulletin | Likely D | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Lean D | Oct 26, 2026 |
| The Economist | Lean D | Oct 26, 2026 |
| FiftyPlusOne | Lean D | Oct 25, 2026 |
| NBC News | Lean D | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Split Ticket | Lean D | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Fox News | Toss-up | Oct 20, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics | Toss-up | Oct 25, 2026 |
8 of 11 rating shops favor El-Sayed, 3 call it a toss-up and none favor Rogers. The markets average 66% for El-Sayed; VotePredictor is 7 points more confident in El-Sayed.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.