Democratic
Abdul El-Sayed
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Michigan U.S. Senate election, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers. Incumbent retiring.
VotePredictor forecast
Abdul El-Sayed favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+1.0
56%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 33 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Mike Rogers
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Lydia Christensen · Libertarian
- Tim Long · U.S. Taxpayers
- Douglas P. Marsh · Green
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University | 2026-09-20 | D+7.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-09-17 | D+2.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-09-14 | D+2.5 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government | 2026-09-14 | D+3.0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2026-09-09 | D+1.5 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2026-08-28 | D+4.0 |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov | 2026-08-20 | D+4.0 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | 2026-08-17 | D+7.0 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2026-08-11 | D+1.0 |
| TIPP Insights | 2026-08-10 | D+3.0 |
| GBAO Strategies | 2026-08-10 | D+6.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-08-10 | R+4.0 |
| 270toWin[211] | 2026-07-31 | EVEN |
| EPIC-MRA | 2026-07-31 | R+3.0 |
| RealClearPolitics[214] | 2026-07-31 | D+1.7 |
| Race to the WH[213] | 2026-07-31 | D+1.2 |
| SoCal Strategies | 2026-07-30 | R+1.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2026-07-29 | EVEN |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | 2026-07-24 | R+10.3 |
| Glengariff Group[306][O] | 2026-07-24 | D+1.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-06-30 | D+1.1 |
| Data for Progress[307][P] | 2026-06-22 | R+1.0 |
| Zenith Research | 2026-06-14 | D+3.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications[309][F] | 2026-06-13 | R+4.0 |
| Tulchin Research | 2026-06-04 | D+5.0 |
| TIPP Insights | 2026-05-23 | EVEN |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2026-05-07 | D+1.0 |
| Mitchell Research[311][F] | 2026-05-07 | R+3.0 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | 2026-05-01 | R+5.0 |
| Glengariff Group[312][I] | 2026-05-01 | R+2.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-01-25 | R+0.3 |
| Glengariff Group[313][E] | 2026-01-06 | D+5.0 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | 2026-01-06 | R+6.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Tossup
as of Sep 15, 2026
DDHQ
Lean D
as of Sep 22, 2026
Econ
Lean D
as of Sep 22, 2026
FPO
Lean D
as of Sep 22, 2026
Fox
Tossup
as of Sep 22, 2026
IE
Tossup
as of Sep 17, 2026
RCP
Tossup
as of Sep 20, 2026
Sabato
Tossup
as of Aug 26, 2026
Silver
Likely D
as of Sep 19, 2026
ST
Lean D
as of Sep 21, 2026
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Michigan we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Can Kamala Harris repair Michigan’s 2024 fractures?
DETROIT — To hear Abdul El-Sayed tell it, the 2024 election left Michigan Democrats with several kinds of pain. There was the pain of a party divided over Gaza, with some voters feeling betrayed by the Democratic Party’s leadership. The pain of Kamala Harris’…
Biztoc.com · Today
Michigan Senate hopeful Abdul El-Sayed gets boost by Kamala Harris on the campaign trail… but it could come back to bite him
Former Vice President Kamala Harris is making her first stop on the campaign trail in Michigan alongside Abdul El-Sayed.
Dailymail.com · Today
Harris joins El-Sayed to boost his campaign in Michigan Senate race
Former Vice President Kamala Harris is joining Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed on the campaign trail. CBS News' Aaron Navarro reports.
CBS News · Today
Flight 93 Hero’s Father Challenges El-Sayed Over Piker in New Mike Rogers Ad
Republican Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers released a powerful ad against Democrat Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, featuring David Beamer, father of Flight 93 hero Todd Beamer. Beamer doesn’t say much, but he says enough. Michigan should rejec…
Legalinsurrection.com · Today
Big Money vs. Winsome Earle-Sears
Last week, Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed was the beneficiary of a massive fundraiser at the home of media producer Jeffrey Soros, yes, George’s nephew. While a Soros raising money for a Democrat isn’t news—Uncle George and Cousin Alex have already contribu…
Daily Signal · Today
Trump-backed Senate candidate says 'Groceries cost too much,' calls for Iran war to 'end quickly'
Trump-backed Michigan Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers declared in a video that "Groceries cost too much" and the Iran war "needs to end, and end quickly."
Fox News · Today
Did Mike Rogers receive donations from people in Epstein files? We followed the paper trail
Mike Rogers, the 2026 Republican candidate for a U.S. Senate seat to represent Michigan, has received nearly $4.7 million from donors who appeared in the Epstein files.
Snopes.com · Today
'It's crushing us': Trump 'contagion' has GOP insiders running scared
Republican Party insiders are hitting the panic button, now having to pour millions into midterm races they once considered safe, including deep red states.President Donald Trump and his policies have cast what one official described as an inescapable, plague…
Raw Story · Today