Democratic
Abdul El-Sayed
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Michigan U.S. Senate election, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers. Incumbent retiring.
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Rogers favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+2.9
62%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 21 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Mike Rogers
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 270toWin[214] | 2026-07-31 | EVEN |
| EPIC-MRA | 2026-07-31 | R+3.0 |
| RealClearPolitics[217] | 2026-07-31 | D+1.7 |
| Race to the WH[216] | 2026-07-31 | D+1.2 |
| SoCal Strategies | 2026-07-30 | R+1.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2026-07-29 | EVEN |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | 2026-07-24 | R+10.3 |
| Glengariff Group[299][O] | 2026-07-24 | D+1.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-06-30 | D+1.1 |
| Data for Progress[300][P] | 2026-06-22 | R+1.0 |
| Zenith Research | 2026-06-14 | D+3.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications[302][F] | 2026-06-13 | R+4.0 |
| Tulchin Research | 2026-06-04 | D+5.0 |
| TIPP Insights | 2026-05-23 | EVEN |
| Mitchell Research[304][F] | 2026-05-07 | R+3.0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2026-05-07 | D+1.0 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | 2026-05-01 | R+5.0 |
| Glengariff Group[305][I] | 2026-05-01 | R+2.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-01-25 | R+0.3 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | 2026-01-06 | R+6.0 |
| Glengariff Group[306][E] | 2026-01-06 | D+5.0 |
Other forecasts
Cook
Tossup
IE
Tossup
Sabato
Tossup
WH
Tossup
Econ
Tossup
RCP
Tossup
DDHQ
Tossup
Fox
Lean D
VoteHub
Tilt D
FPO
Lean D
ST
Lean D
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Candidate news
How Israel and Its Lobby Allied With Trump and Damaged the Democratic Party
There are plenty of principled, humanitarian reasons for opposing US support for Israel’s current government. Multiple human right groups, United Nations bodies, international courts, Israeli politicians, and genocide organizations have accused Israel of enga…
Common Dreams · Today
Abdul El-Sayed Had Big Night, But He Still Has Work To Do With Key Demo
Democratic Michigan nominee Abdul El-Sayed will have to win the support from non-college-educated, lower income and non-white voters in Michigan.
The Daily Caller · Today
Islamist Wins Dem Nomination for Senator [semi-satire]
Abdul El-Sayed narrowly won the Democratic primary election for one of Michigan's US Senate seats. Self-identified Marxist Hasan Piker denounced the 51% of Democrats who did not vote for El-Sayed, calling them "unbelievably Islamophobic pieces of s**t." Long-…
Freerepublic.com · Today
"Are you kidding me?" Ex-GOP operative rips senator's anti-MAGA book after caving to Trump
A former Republican operative slammed a GOP leader's planned tell-all and the idea that it would do anything by targeting Trump.During an episode of The Jim Acosta Show, Steve Schmidt discussed the GOP's failure to stand up to President Donald Trump as they m…
Raw Story · Today
‘No place like Mackinac’: Mike Rogers trolls Abdul el Sayed after hot mic moment emerges
Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers brought attention to Abdul el Sayed’s disdain for the state’s beloved Mackinac Island with a trolling post. The left-wing Senate hopeful’s hot-mic comment regarding his dislike of the island, captured in a 2020…
Freerepublic.com · Today
Dem attorney backs GOP hopeful in Michigan race against El-Sayed, 'jumping ship' from his party's 'lunatics'
Julian Epstein says Democrats have "gone off the deep end" with Abdul El-Sayed's nomination, declaring his support for Republican Mike Rogers.
Fox News · Yesterday
Republicans Are the Real Winners of Michigan’s Primary
The Economist: “Before knowing the nominees, our forecast estimated that an average Democrat running against an average Republican in Michigan this year would have an 84% chance of holding the seat. Now that the race pits Dr El-Sayed against Mike Rogers, a fo…
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday
MAGA battered by epic clapback over surging Dem's supposed 'hot mic' moment
Republican activists are running wild with a recently resurfaced quote from Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed — but he's hitting back over it.El-Sayed, an Egyptian-American public health administrator and progressive activist nominated after a monthslo…
Raw Story · Yesterday