Democratic
Abdul El-Sayed
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers: Michigan U.S. Senate election, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers. Incumbent retiring. Democratic hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Abdul El-Sayed favored
Likely D
92%
chance to win
D+4.3
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 43 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Mike Rogers
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Lydia Christensen · Libertarian
- Walter P. Kristy · Natural Law
- Tim Long · U.S. Taxpayers
- Douglas P. Marsh · Green
Polls
The polls behind it
66 polls · 43 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov10-192026-10-19D+2.5D+1.8
The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government09-142026-09-14D+3.0D+2.3
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov08-202026-08-20D+4.0D+3.3
EPIC-MRAGrade A-07-312026-07-31R+3.0R+2.8
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 22, 2026Abdul El-SayedDEM$53.8M raised
Spent $51.1MCash on hand $2.7M36% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- ABDUL FOR MICHIGAN VICTORY FUND$5.0M
- DSCC$62k
- BARAKAT, ABDUL$21k
- DAOUD, IMAD M$16k
- EZZEDDINE, DINA$14k
Industries
- Unemployed$9.6M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$3.1M
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$806k
- Education & Academia$621k
- Technology & Communications$616k
States
- MI$7.4M
- CA$4.1M
- NY$1.7M
- IL$1.2M
- TX$1.2M
Mike RogersREP$23.0M raised
Spent $19.4MCash on hand $3.9M16% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$5.3M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$860k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$716k
- Legal & Professional Services$449k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$138k
States
- MI$2.4M
- CA$1.4M
- FL$1.3M
- NY$1.1M
- TX$725k
Lydia ChristensenLIB$7k raised
Spent $5kCash on hand $3k7% from donors under $200Self-funded $690
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$2k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$421
States
- MI$2k
- MO$1k
- CA$421
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 92%
a probability from our model
Cook
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Tilt D≈ D 60%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Lean D≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Likely D≈ D 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Michigan we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Former Orioles slugger Santander rebuked for Islamophobic posts
The Toronto Blue Jays responded to Anthony Santander resharing hateful posts after Abdul El-Sayed made history as the first Muslim to be elected to the U.S. Senate.
Delmarva Daily Times · Today
Left Loses It After MLB All-Star Calls Out El-Sayed and Sharia: Team Instantly Distances Itself
The Left is already demanding punishment after an MLB All-Star called out Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI) — and political Islam — in the wake of Tuesday’s midterms. Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Anthony Santander, an All-Star in 2024 before suffering a maj…
Freerepublic.com · Today
‘I didn’t expect to be a main character’: Abdul El-Sayed heads to the Senate with a mandate – and a spotlight - The Guardian
‘I didn’t expect to be a main character’: Abdul El-Sayed heads to the Senate with a mandate – and a spotlightThe Guardian How Abdul El-Sayed actually did with Jewish votersPolitico Abdul El-Sayed’s Senate Win Is Big to Muslim Americans, but Not Because of Fai…
Slashdot.org · Today
Blue Jays slugger Anthony Santander under fire for controversial Abdul El-Sayed posts after midterms
Anthony Santander appeared to be unhappy with Michigan electing Abdul El-Sayed on Tuesday, as the Blue Jays outfielder made multiple posts on social media attacking the senator-elect’s Muslim faith. Santander, 32, reposted two videos to his Instagram story at…
Freerepublic.com · Today
Blue Jays' Anthony Santander posts crude Islamophobic memes after Abdul El-Sayed's victory in Michigan
Toronto Blue Jays slugger Anthony Santander is facing criticism for social media posts attacking Islam and senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed after his victory in Michigan.
Dailymail.com · Today
Dems Campaigned on Affordability. But Can They Deliver?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington “We campaigned as affordability Democrats. That was the message of every single c…
The New Republic · Today
Democratic socialist Nithya Raman defeats incumbent Karen Bass in the L.A. mayoral race
Democrats continue to celebrate one of the most lopsided midterm election victories in modern U.S. history, routing their Republican rivals to gain control of the U.S. House, U.S. Senate and statehouses across the country.In the Senate, Democrats flipped se…
Yahoo Entertainment · Yesterday
Whoopi Goldberg is putty in Abdul El-Sayed's hands as The View host shamelessly flirts with newly-elected Michigan senator
El-Sayed, 42, became the first Muslim to be elected to the US Senate on Tuesday, soundly defeating Republican Mike Rogers as Democrats swept races across the nation.
Dailymail.com · Yesterday