Who is forecasted today to win the Oregon Senate race?
Updated Monday, October 26, 2026 · 8 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Jeff Merkley is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Merkley a 99% chance of beating David Brock Smith, with a predicted margin of Merkley +27.9. That is a Safe D race: Merkley wins in nearly every simulation, and Smith in the other 1%.
What the forecast is built on
No public poll of this race exists, so the forecast is built on fundamentals: the state's presidential lean (D+15.5), incumbency, the last result (Democrats +17.6 in 2020), and the national environment. It predicts Merkley +27.9.
How the forecast has moved
Daily tracking of this race began on Oct 26; the trend fills in from here.
What everyone else says
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid D | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Solid D | Oct 26, 2026 |
| The Economist | Solid D | Oct 26, 2026 |
| FiftyPlusOne | Solid D | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Fox News | Solid D | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Solid D | Oct 15, 2026 |
| NBC News | Solid D | Oct 25, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics | Solid D | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Solid D | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin | Solid D | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Split Ticket | Solid D | Oct 22, 2026 |
All 11 rating shops favor Merkley.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.