Democratic
Jeff Merkley
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
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Jeff Merkley vs. David Brock Smith: Oregon U.S. Senate election, 2026
Jeff Merkley vs. David Brock Smith. Incumbent re-elected.
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Jeff Merkley favored
Safe D
97%
chance to win
D+19.8
predicted margin
Fundamentals model · no poll: state lean, incumbency, the prior result and the national environment. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
David Brock Smith
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Gary Lyndon Dye · Libertarian
- Chris Henry · Progressive
Polls
No verified 2026 general-election poll is currently available in the feed for this race.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jeff MerkleyDEM · incumbent$8.7M raised
Spent $5.9MCash on hand $6.6M30% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.7M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$237k
- Legal & Professional Services$97k
- Technology & Communications$35k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$31k
States
- OR$2.0M
- CA$198k
- NY$98k
- IL$82k
- DC$82k
David Brock SmithREP$311k raised
Spent $267kCash on hand $44k41% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$56k
- Not Reported$23k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$8k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$8k
- Government$1k
States
- OR$148k
- CA$4k
- NJ$3k
- WA$3k
- NV$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 97%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Solid D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Safe D≈ D 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Oregon we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.