Who is forecasted today to win the South Carolina Senate race?
Updated Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 6 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Darline Graham is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Graham a 95% chance of beating Annie Andrews, with a predicted margin of Graham +5.4. That is a Safe R race: Graham wins about 19 times in 20, and Andrews in the other 5%.
What the forecast is built on
The forecast starts from the 3 public polls in the forecast window, whose plain average is Graham +1.3. Each poll is corrected for its voter screen and its pollster's measured house effect first (the “Adjusted” column below).
- The polls, weighted and corrected, read Graham +5.3.
- The fundamentals (the state's presidential lean, incumbency, the last result and the national environment) read Graham +6.3.
- The published forecast blends the two, mostly on the polls, at Graham +5.4.
Misses of a few points are common, so a 5.4-point lead is a 95% chance and not a lock.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | Graham's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 | 77% | Graham +12.1 |
| May 7 | 77% | Graham +12.1 |
| Jun 4 | 77% | Graham +12.1 |
| Jul 2 | 77% | Graham +12.1 |
| Aug 6 | 77% | Graham +12.1 |
| Sep 1 | 77% | Graham +12.1 |
| Oct 1 | 94% | Graham +6.9 |
| Oct 20 | 94% | Graham +5.1 |
| Oct 28 (today) | 95% | Graham +5.4 |
The polls
3 polls are in today's forecast. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
What everyone else says
Prediction markets
| Market | Graham's chance |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | 73% |
| Kalshi | 75% |
| VotePredictor | 95% |
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | Toss-up | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Cook Political Report | Lean R | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Lean R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| The Economist | Lean R | Oct 27, 2026 |
| FiftyPlusOne | Lean R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Fox News | Lean R | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Lean R | Oct 15, 2026 |
| NBC News | Lean R | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin | Lean R | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Split Ticket | Lean R | Oct 27, 2026 |
10 of 11 rating shops favor Graham, 1 calls it a toss-up and none favor Andrews. The markets average 74% for Graham; VotePredictor is 22 points more confident in Graham.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.