Democratic
Annie Andrews
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Annie Andrews vs. Darline Graham: South Carolina U.S. Senate election, 2026
Annie Andrews vs. Darline Graham. Interim appointee lost election. Democratic gain..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Darline Graham favored
Likely R
86%
chance to win
R+3.3
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 15 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Darline Graham
Incumbent. Voting record and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Mark Hackett · Constitution
- Kasie Whitener · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
18 polls · 15 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Annie AndrewsDEM$24.2M raised
Spent $22.5MCash on hand $1.7M52% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$5.3M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$906k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$334k
- Legal & Professional Services$165k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$164k
States
- SC$3.5M
- CA$1.2M
- NY$507k
- MA$395k
- NC$288k
Darline GrahamREP · incumbent$21.7M raised
Spent $33.8MCash on hand $315k28% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$218k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$155k
- Legal & Professional Services$85k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$82k
- Technology & Communications$29k
States
- SC$271k
- NY$186k
- FL$147k
- GA$119k
- CA$100k
Kasie WhitenerLIB$28k raised
Spent $22kCash on hand $6kDebts $89416% from donors under $200Self-funded $9k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$11k
- Retired$3k
States
- SC$9k
- AZ$4k
- AR$1k
- CA$764
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 86%
a probability from our model
Cook
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Tilt R≈ R 60%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Lean R≈ R 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in South Carolina we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Annie Andrews Just Became South Carolina's New Senator, And Her Extremely Millennial Videos Roasting Republicans Are Sending People
"We're Republican women politicians...we think 'my body my choice' is about plastic surgery."View Entire Post ›
Buzzfeed · Yesterday
Annie Andrews Ran on Fixing Healthcare. The First Big Challenge Arrives Soon.
One of the biggest Election Day surprises unfolded in South Carolina, where pediatrician Dr. Annie Andrews became the state’s first Democrat to win a US Senate seat in almost 30 years. She did so by highlighting familiar concerns—the expansion of data centers…
Mother Jones · Yesterday
These Black Greek Members Won Big During Midterm Sweep
From the yard to the ballot box, Tuesday’s midterm elections prove that the Divine Nine’s influence reaches far beyond Greek life. Long before election night, our fraternities and sororities were building leaders, mobilizing communities and creating pathways …
The Root · Yesterday
The Midterms Weren’t Red vs. Blue, They Were Bought vs. Not Bought
This week, voters in red and purple states sent Democrats to the Senate who ran against corporate money. James Talarico won in Texas. Annie Andrews won in South Carolina. Adam Hamilton won in Kansas. All three took $0 in corporate PAC money.More than 16 years…
Common Dreams · Yesterday
‘Not a Retribution Tour’: Annie Andrews Tells Fox News ‘Fighting’ Trump Won’t Be Her Focus in the Senate
"I'm gonna be laser-focused on delivering results and not a retribution tour," South Carolina Democratic Senator-elect Annie Andrews told Fox News anchor Bret Baier. The post ‘Not a Retribution Tour’: Annie Andrews Tells Fox News ‘Fighting’ Trump Won’t Be Her…
Mediaite · Yesterday
Democratic socialist Nithya Raman defeats incumbent Karen Bass in the L.A. mayoral race
Democrats continue to celebrate one of the most lopsided midterm election victories in modern U.S. history, routing their Republican rivals to gain control of the U.S. House, U.S. Senate and statehouses across the country.In the Senate, Democrats flipped se…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 5, 2026
Trump’s Midterms Spiral Was Months in the Making
Donald Trump really didn’t care about the midterms. Then he panicked.The president’s mood and regard for the consequential elections fluctuated rapidly in the months preceding them, according to a senior administration official that spoke with The Wall Street…
The New Republic · November 5, 2026
Trump 'unforced error' left GOP 'apoplectic' and scrambled their midterm strategy: report
President Donald Trump upended a planned strategy by House Republicans when he accepted an invitation to visit New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, according to a new report.The Wall Street Journal’s blow-by-blow account of the Republican collapse in Tuesday’s…
Raw Story · November 5, 2026