Who is forecasted today to win the Texas Senate race?
Updated Monday, October 26, 2026 · 8 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
James Talarico is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Talarico a 59% chance of beating Ken Paxton, with a predicted margin of Talarico +0.7. That is still close to a toss-up: Talarico wins about three times in five, and Paxton in the other 41%.
What the forecast is built on
The forecast starts from the 39 public polls in the forecast window, whose plain average is Talarico +2.3. Each poll is corrected for its voter screen and its pollster's measured house effect first (the “Adjusted” column below).
- The polls, weighted and corrected, read Talarico +1.2.
- The fundamentals (the state's presidential lean, incumbency, the last result and the national environment) read Paxton +3.9.
- The published forecast blends the two, mostly on the polls, at Talarico +0.7.
Misses of a few points are common, so a 0.7-point lead is a 59% chance and not a lock.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | Talarico's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 | 38% | Paxton +3.1 |
| May 7 | 52% | Talarico +0.6 |
| Jun 4 | 50% | Tied |
| Jul 2 | 51% | Talarico +0.2 |
| Aug 6 | 52% | Talarico +0.5 |
| Sep 1 | 54% | Talarico +0.9 |
| Oct 1 | 61% | Talarico +1.1 |
| Oct 19 | 62% | Talarico +1.1 |
| Oct 26 (today) | 59% | Talarico +0.7 |
The polls
39 polls are in today's forecast; 23 older ones have aged out and are shown dimmed. Margins are Democrat minus Republican.
The polls behind it
62 polls · 39 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source.The VotePredictor margin is the poll after correcting for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples.
What everyone else says
Prediction markets
| Market | Talarico's chance |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | 65% |
| Kalshi | 65% |
| VotePredictor | 59% |
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Silver Bulletin | Lean D | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Split Ticket | Lean D | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Toss-up | Oct 26, 2026 |
| The Economist | Toss-up | Oct 26, 2026 |
| FiftyPlusOne | Toss-up | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Fox News | Toss-up | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Toss-up | Oct 15, 2026 |
| NBC News | Toss-up | Oct 25, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics | Toss-up | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Oct 14, 2026 |
2 of 11 rating shops favor Talarico, 9 call it a toss-up and none favor Paxton. The markets average 65% for Talarico; VotePredictor is 5 points less confident in Talarico.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.