Democratic
James Talarico
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
Texas U.S. Senate election, 2026
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton. Incumbent lost renomination in runoff.
VotePredictor forecast
James Talarico favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+0.5
52%
chance to win
Poll-driven model · 24 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Republican
Ken Paxton
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Ted Brown · Libertarian
Polls
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| YouGov Blue | 2026-07-31 | D+3.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 2026-07-31 | D+2.0 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-07-30 | D+2.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-07-30 | D+4.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-07-27 | D+3.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-07-17 | D+5.0 |
| A2 Insights | 2026-06-28 | D+2.3 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-27 | EVEN |
| SoCal Strategies | 2026-06-21 | R+1.4 |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project | 2026-06-12 | R+1.0 |
| Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov | 2026-06-12 | R+1.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-06-04 | D+3.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-06-04 | R+2.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-05-28 | D+3.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-05-28 | D+3.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-05-23 | D+7.0 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-05-06 | EVEN |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project | 2026-04-20 | D+8.0 |
| YouGov | 2026-04-20 | D+8.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-04-20 | D+5.0 |
| Impact Research | 2026-03-17 | D+1.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-03-05 | D+2.0 |
| University of Houston/YouGov | 2026-01-31 | R+2.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-01-12 | EVEN |
Other forecasts
Cook
Lean R
IE
Lean R
Sabato
Lean R
WH
Tilt D (flip)
Econ
Tossup
RCP
Tossup
DDHQ
Tossup
Fox
Lean R
VoteHub
Tossup
FPO
Tossup
ST
Tossup
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Candidate news
James Talarico Pulls Ahead of Ken Paxton for First Time in New Texas Poll
Democrat James Talarico has moved ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the latest Texas Senate polling, according to a new Texas Pulse survey conducted by ReconMR for the Texas A&M Bush School. Talarico leads Paxton 47 percent to 43 percent among likely Texas vo…
Biztoc.com · Today
MAGA 'outraged' as core voters turn against Trump in red state races: report
President Donald Trump is seeing a key group among his core voters turn against him and the MAGA movement, according to a report.A piece published by The Contrarian on Friday focused on how religious and Christian voters are souring on Trump and how pastors a…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Democrats gain momentum in pivotal US Senate and governor’s races in Texas
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, signalling a potential shift in the Republican stronghold.
Al Jazeera English · Yesterday
We’re Seeing Stars
The Senate is the real uphill battle in the 2026 Pie Fight. Every senate race matters, and frankly Texas keeps breaking our hearts. I think James Talarico might be one of those once-in-a-generation talents. This is a Master Class in positioning and framing, a…
Crooksandliars.com · Yesterday
The GOP’s Midterm Convention Will Be the Worst Film Festival Ever
The focus of the GOP’s first ever midterm convention in September won’t be Trump’s dismal approval rating, how to end the war on Iran, or the stagnant economy. They will be spending their time, resources, and funds focusing on democratic socialism.Axios repor…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Old Divisions Fade as Republicans Rally Around [Texas Senate Candidate]Paxton
Three years can be a long time in Texas politics. Republicans who once stood on opposite sides of one of the party’s most bitter battles are now sharing stages, exchanging embraces, and urging voters to unite behind Attorney General Ken Paxton in November. Th…
Freerepublic.com · Today
Texas Children’s Hospital to Open First Detransition Clinic Under Paxton Settlement
Just a few months after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton secured a settlement agreement with Texas Children’s Hospital, the facility has 90 days to implement a detransition clinic. In February, Paxton sued Texas Children’s Hospital and a Dallas-area doctor f…
Daily Signal · Yesterday