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Texas U.S. Senate election, 2026

James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton. Incumbent lost renomination in runoff.

VotePredictor forecast
James Talarico favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+0.6
54%
chance to win

Poll-driven model · 51 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →

Democratic

James Talarico

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Ken Paxton

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Ted Brown · Libertarian

Polls

PollsterDateMargin
Texas Southern University[402]2026-09-19D+1.0
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center2026-09-19D+1.0
FiftyPlusOne[399]2026-09-19D+3.1
270toWin[397]2026-09-19D+2.4
The Texas Tribune[401]2026-09-17D+3.0
Decision Desk HQ[398]2026-09-17D+3.1
Race to the WH[193]2026-09-17D+3.0
Trafalgar Group[403]2026-09-17D+1.0
RealClearPolitics[400]2026-09-17D+2.6
Silver Bulletin[346]2026-09-14D+2.8
Emerson College2026-09-14D+1.0
SoCal Strategies[405]2026-09-13D+5.0
ReconMR/Siena University2026-09-11D+6.0
Mason-Dixon[407][V]2026-09-10D+3.0
InsiderAdvantage2026-09-09D+1.5
YouGov2026-09-04D+5.0
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research2026-09-01D+4.0
Overton Insights[411][X]2026-08-26EVEN
Slingshot Strategies2026-08-24D+6.0
Texas Public Opinion Research[412]2026-08-24D+6.0
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[413]2026-08-13D+3.0
The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov2026-08-13D+3.0
Emerson College2026-08-10R+1.0
YouGov Blue2026-07-31D+3.0
Wedgewood Polls2026-07-31D+2.0
Texas Southern University[418]2026-07-30D+2.0
ReconMR/Siena University2026-07-30D+4.0
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center2026-07-30D+2.0
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2026-07-27D+3.0
Slingshot Strategies2026-07-17D+5.0
Texas Public Opinion Research[420]2026-07-17D+5.0
A2 Insights2026-06-28D+2.3
The New York Times/Siena University2026-06-27EVEN
New York Times/Siena University[422]2026-06-27EVEN
SoCal Strategies2026-06-21R+1.4
University of Texas /Texas Politics Project2026-06-12R+1.0
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov2026-06-12R+1.0
Quantus Insights2026-06-04R+2.0
ReconMR/Siena University2026-06-04D+3.0
Texas Public Opinion Research[427]2026-05-28D+3.0
Slingshot Strategies2026-05-28D+3.0
Public Policy Polling2026-05-23D+7.0
Texas Southern University[430]2026-05-06EVEN
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center2026-05-06EVEN
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[432]2026-04-20D+8.0
YouGov2026-04-20D+8.0
Texas Public Opinion Research2026-04-20D+5.0
Impact Research2026-03-17D+1.0
Public Policy Polling2026-03-05D+2.0
University of Houston/YouGov2026-01-31R+2.0
Emerson College2026-01-12EVEN

Other forecasts

Cook
Tossup
as of Sep 15, 2026
DDHQ
Tossup
as of Sep 22, 2026
Econ
Tossup
as of Sep 22, 2026
FPO
Tossup
as of Sep 22, 2026
Fox
Tossup
as of Sep 22, 2026
IE
Lean R
as of Sep 17, 2026
RCP
Tossup
as of Sep 20, 2026
Sabato
Tossup
as of Aug 26, 2026
Silver
Lean D (flip)
as of Sep 19, 2026
ST
Lean D (flip)
as of Sep 21, 2026

Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Past results

Every U.S. Senate election in Texas we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.

Candidate news

Paxton's Democratic rival James Talarico makes screeching U-turn on trans rights at secret fundraiser

Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico has made a screeching U-turn on transgender rights after being confronted at a secret fundraiser, the Daily Mail can reveal.

Dailymail.com · Today
How Do You Stop Election Tampering Before It Happens?

You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonHow do you stop election tampering before it happens?A potential crisis was averte…

The New Republic · Today
James Talarico Sees 28-Point Swing in Texas Trump Stronghold: Private Poll

Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has seen a massive 28-point swing in vote share in Texas State Senate District 9, compared to President Donald Trump's numbers in 2024, according to a new private poll acquired by Harvey Kronberg’s Quorum Repor…

Biztoc.com · Today
James Talarico's Church Under Scrutiny

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has said St. Andrew's Presbyterian Church in Austin, which has been attended by his Democratic Senate rival Rep. James Talarico, “harbors illegals” and that one of its ministers “says most members are atheist.” The allegation…

Biztoc.com · Today
Austin Man Shot by ICE Facing Paralysis After Being Refused Medical Care

Democrats in Congress on Monday evening were demanding a full, independent investigation into US Immigration and Customs Enforcement's shooting on Sunday of Wilber Rafael Garces Perez, as it was reported that he had been held in an ICE detention center with a…

Common Dreams · Today
George W Bush raises money for Republicans, but not key Senate candidate

George W. Bush hosted a fundraiser for Senate Republicans but notably excluded Ken Paxton, who defeated Bush's nephew in the 2022 Texas primary.

Fox News · Today
Ken Paxton snubbed from Texas GOP fundraisers as polls spell trouble: report

Former President George W. Bush and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) are teaming up to raise money for Senate Republicans nationwide, but they've pointedly left one candidate off the guest list: Ken Paxton, the GOP's own Senate nominee in their home state of Texas.Cor…

Raw Story · Today
Texas Senate Race Shifts to ‘Lean D’ in Prediction Market Forecast

James Talarico has gained ground in the closely watched Texas Senate race, with several prediction markets and election forecasters increasingly characterizing the contest as competitive, despite the state's long-standing Republican lean. Kalshi, a prediction…

Freerepublic.com · Yesterday