VotePredictor
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Texas U.S. Senate election, 2026

James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton. Incumbent lost renomination in runoff.

VotePredictor forecast
James Talarico favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+1.4
66%
chance to win

Poll-driven model · 36 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →

Democratic

James Talarico

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Ken Paxton

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Ted Brown · Libertarian

Polls

PollsterDateMargin
FiftyPlusOne2026-10-11D+3.6
Quantus Insights2026-10-11R+0.5
Marist University2026-10-11D+4.0
ReconMR/Siena University2026-10-08D+4.0
Trafalgar Group2026-10-08D+3.0
The Texas Tribune2026-10-08D+3.3
YouGov2026-10-05D+6.0
FiftyPlusOne2026-09-30D+3.2
New York Times/Siena University2026-09-30D+6.0
The Texas Tribune2026-09-29D+2.1
Rasmussen Reports2026-09-29D+1.0
UMass Lowell/YouGov2026-09-28EVEN
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2026-09-28D+2.0
Guidant Polling and Strategy2026-09-28D+2.4
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov2026-09-28EVEN
Guidant Polling & Strategy2026-09-28D+3.0
Pulse Decision Science2026-09-27R+3.0
Big Data Poll2026-09-26D+2.0
Stratus Intelligence2026-09-24EVEN
Slingshot Strategies2026-09-22D+4.0
The Texas Tribune2026-09-22D+3.4
Texas Public Opinion Research2026-09-22D+5.0
FiftyPlusOne2026-09-22D+3.4
Marist University2026-09-20D+6.0
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center2026-09-19D+1.0
Trafalgar Group2026-09-17D+1.0
Emerson College2026-09-14D+1.0
SoCal Strategies2026-09-13D+5.0
ReconMR/Siena University2026-09-11D+6.0
Mason-Dixon2026-09-10D+3.0
InsiderAdvantage2026-09-09D+1.5
YouGov2026-09-04D+5.0
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research2026-09-01D+4.0
Overton Insights2026-08-26EVEN
Texas Public Opinion Research2026-08-24D+6.0
Slingshot Strategies2026-08-24D+6.0

Other forecasts

Cook
Tossup
as of Oct 6, 2026
DDHQ
Tossup
as of Oct 13, 2026
Econ
Tossup
as of Oct 12, 2026
FPO
Tossup
as of Oct 13, 2026
Fox
Tossup
as of Oct 13, 2026
IE
Tilt R
as of Oct 1, 2026
RCP
Tossup
as of Oct 12, 2026
Sabato
Tossup
as of Oct 6, 2026
Silver
Lean D (flip)
as of Oct 13, 2026
ST
Lean D (flip)
as of Oct 7, 2026

Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Past results

Every U.S. Senate election in Texas we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Ted Cruz(R)R+8.5
2020John Cornyn(R)R+9.6
2018Ted Cruz(R)R+2.6
2014John Cornyn(R)R+27.2
2012Ted Cruz(R)R+15.8
2008John Cornyn(R)R+12.0
2006Kay Bailey Hutchison(R)R+25.6
2002John Cornyn(R)R+12.0
2000Kay Bailey Hutchison(R)R+32.8

Candidate news

James Talarico Defends Unity, Faith, Abortion Rights in Texas Town Hall

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico spent much of a CNN town hall Wednesday night explaining his Christian faith, defending his abortion-rights stance and arguing that Texans have more in common than the political system would have them believe. T…

Biztoc.com · Today
Bettors wager over $220M on midterm election outcomes on Kalshi, Polymarket — with big money on Texas Senate battle

Bettors have reportedly wagered over $220 million on the outcomes of the November midterms on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. That’s more than twice the $92 million in trading volume recorded during the entire 2024 congressional election cycle, Reut…

Freerepublic.com · Yesterday
CNN’s Dana Bash Warns JD Vance Implying James Talarico Is Gay Can Sway Texas Voters

“Can I just add, it’s pretty pathetic if on October 14th that’s the best thing you have going for you," argued veteran CNN correspondent Jamie Gangel. The post CNN’s Dana Bash Warns JD Vance Implying James Talarico Is Gay Can Sway Texas Voters first appeared …

Mediaite · Yesterday
New poll finds Democrats leading in nearly every statewide contest - Houston Chronicle

New poll finds Democrats leading in nearly every statewide contestHouston Chronicle Election Updates: Polls Show Texas Senate Race Tightens; Trump to Rally in Arizona and MontanaThe New York Times New poll reveals surprising shift in Texas Senate race after T…

Slashdot.org · Yesterday
Talarico to Skip Bernie Sanders Texas Rally as Senate Polling Lead Tightens

Democratic Texas Senate hopeful James Talarico will not appear alongside Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders when the progressive independent brings his national tour to the Lone Star State next week, as new polling shows Talarico's lead over Republican Ken Paxton…

Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Ken Paxton Claims Greg Abbot Is 'Struggling' to Get Reelected in Latest Leaked Audio Featuring Republican

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a newly leaked audio recording that Gov. Greg Abbott is 'struggling' in his reelection bid.

Radaronline.com · Yesterday
Spoiler campaigns deployed by political operative who cost the GOP in 2016: report

Aaron Day, the third-party candidate who helped sink Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s reelection bid in 2016, is trying to export his approach across the country, Semafor reported on Wednesday.Day is steering as much as $2.5 million, maybe less if it works, thr…

Raw Story · Yesterday
Vance takes aim at soft-on-crime Dems as GOP faces uphill midterm battle: ‘Lost their minds’

JD Vance rallied for Ken Paxton in Tyler, Texas, while taking aim at Democrats over Somali gang violence in Minnesota and spiking gas prices.

Fox News · Yesterday