James Talarico
Major-party general-election nominee.
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton. Incumbent lost renomination in runoff.
Poll-driven model · 51 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology →
Major-party general-election nominee.
Major-party general-election nominee.
| Pollster | Date | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern University[402] | 2026-09-19 | D+1.0 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-09-19 | D+1.0 |
| FiftyPlusOne[399] | 2026-09-19 | D+3.1 |
| 270toWin[397] | 2026-09-19 | D+2.4 |
| The Texas Tribune[401] | 2026-09-17 | D+3.0 |
| Decision Desk HQ[398] | 2026-09-17 | D+3.1 |
| Race to the WH[193] | 2026-09-17 | D+3.0 |
| Trafalgar Group[403] | 2026-09-17 | D+1.0 |
| RealClearPolitics[400] | 2026-09-17 | D+2.6 |
| Silver Bulletin[346] | 2026-09-14 | D+2.8 |
| Emerson College | 2026-09-14 | D+1.0 |
| SoCal Strategies[405] | 2026-09-13 | D+5.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-09-11 | D+6.0 |
| Mason-Dixon[407][V] | 2026-09-10 | D+3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-09-09 | D+1.5 |
| YouGov | 2026-09-04 | D+5.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 2026-09-01 | D+4.0 |
| Overton Insights[411][X] | 2026-08-26 | EVEN |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-08-24 | D+6.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research[412] | 2026-08-24 | D+6.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[413] | 2026-08-13 | D+3.0 |
| The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov | 2026-08-13 | D+3.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-08-10 | R+1.0 |
| YouGov Blue | 2026-07-31 | D+3.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 2026-07-31 | D+2.0 |
| Texas Southern University[418] | 2026-07-30 | D+2.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-07-30 | D+4.0 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-07-30 | D+2.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-07-27 | D+3.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-07-17 | D+5.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research[420] | 2026-07-17 | D+5.0 |
| A2 Insights | 2026-06-28 | D+2.3 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-27 | EVEN |
| New York Times/Siena University[422] | 2026-06-27 | EVEN |
| SoCal Strategies | 2026-06-21 | R+1.4 |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project | 2026-06-12 | R+1.0 |
| Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGov | 2026-06-12 | R+1.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-06-04 | R+2.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-06-04 | D+3.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research[427] | 2026-05-28 | D+3.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-05-28 | D+3.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-05-23 | D+7.0 |
| Texas Southern University[430] | 2026-05-06 | EVEN |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-05-06 | EVEN |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[432] | 2026-04-20 | D+8.0 |
| YouGov | 2026-04-20 | D+8.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-04-20 | D+5.0 |
| Impact Research | 2026-03-17 | D+1.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-03-05 | D+2.0 |
| University of Houston/YouGov | 2026-01-31 | R+2.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-01-12 | EVEN |
Published ratings are categorical, not probabilities, and remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Every U.S. Senate election in Texas we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.

Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico has made a screeching U-turn on transgender rights after being confronted at a secret fundraiser, the Daily Mail can reveal.

You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonHow do you stop election tampering before it happens?A potential crisis was averte…

Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has seen a massive 28-point swing in vote share in Texas State Senate District 9, compared to President Donald Trump's numbers in 2024, according to a new private poll acquired by Harvey Kronberg’s Quorum Repor…

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has said St. Andrew's Presbyterian Church in Austin, which has been attended by his Democratic Senate rival Rep. James Talarico, “harbors illegals” and that one of its ministers “says most members are atheist.” The allegation…

Democrats in Congress on Monday evening were demanding a full, independent investigation into US Immigration and Customs Enforcement's shooting on Sunday of Wilber Rafael Garces Perez, as it was reported that he had been held in an ICE detention center with a…

George W. Bush hosted a fundraiser for Senate Republicans but notably excluded Ken Paxton, who defeated Bush's nephew in the 2022 Texas primary.

Former President George W. Bush and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) are teaming up to raise money for Senate Republicans nationwide, but they've pointedly left one candidate off the guest list: Ken Paxton, the GOP's own Senate nominee in their home state of Texas.Cor…
James Talarico has gained ground in the closely watched Texas Senate race, with several prediction markets and election forecasters increasingly characterizing the contest as competitive, despite the state's long-standing Republican lean. Kalshi, a prediction…