Democratic
James Talarico
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all Senate races
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton: Texas U.S. Senate election, 2026
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton. Incumbent lost renomination in runoff. Democratic gain..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
James Talarico favored
Lean D
71%
chance to win
D+1.7
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 53 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Ken Paxton
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Ted Brown · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
79 polls · 53 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center10-252026-10-25D+2.0D+1.3
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center09-192026-09-19D+1.0D+0.3
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center07-302026-07-30D+2.0D+1.3
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center05-062026-05-06EVENR+0.7
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026James TalaricoDEM$146M raised
Spent $136MCash on hand $9.9M51% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$14.8M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$2.7M
- Legal & Professional Services$771k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$565k
- Technology & Communications$505k
States
- TX$16.4M
- CA$3.3M
- NY$1.4M
- MA$801k
- WA$647k
Ken PaxtonREP$22.3M raised
Spent $17.5MCash on hand $4.8M27% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- LEDWELL, STEVE$42k
- SHIELDS, JOHN H.$40k
- ONE TEAM SENATE MAJORITY$27k
- WARD, R. MIKE$22k
- LOWE, LEZLIE$21k
Industries
- Retired$5.9M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$1.3M
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$302k
- Legal & Professional Services$238k
- Homemaker$220k
States
- TX$10.2M
- FL$549k
- CA$376k
- NY$238k
- VA$146k
Ted BrownLIB$14k raised
Spent $13kCash on hand $1k24% from donors under $200Self-funded $6k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$2k
- Retired$2k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$950
States
- CA$2k
- TX$2k
- VA$800
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
D 71%
a probability from our model
Cook
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Tilt D (flip)≈ D 60%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Tossup≈ 50%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Lean D (flip)≈ D 75%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Likely D (flip)≈ D 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Likely D (flip)≈ D 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Texas we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
After Blue Tsunami, Progressives Don't Trust Schumer and Jeffries to Lead Congress
After a Democratic "tsunami" in this week's midterm elections that has been widely seen as "a mandate to deliver big change," progressives within and beyond Congress have cast doubt on whether the New York Democrats likely to lead both chambers are actually u…
Common Dreams · Yesterday
Dems won the midterms. How should they work with Trump?
US Sen.-elect James Talarico (D-TX) speaks during a midterm election night event on November 3, 2026 in Austin, Texas. | Brandon Bell/Getty Images Just days after big wins in the midterms, Democrats are celebrating historic victories. But what can we actuall…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Pro-Talarico PAC pulls back curtain on historic investment
In January, the leading super political action committee backing James Talarico spotted a problem in the data: Talarico was running behind where he needed to be in Hispanic-heavy South Texas in order to win the March primary. It didn’t take them long to find …
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
James Talarico's Cowboy Boots and the Politics of Image
James Talarico didn't just win a Texas Senate seat; he did it in Lucchese cowboy boots that became a kind of running mate. In a piece for the New York Times , Vanessa Friedman uses Talarico's footwear to explain how image-making is shaping modern campaigns, e…
Newser · Yesterday
Top Paxton Staffer Points The Finger Directly At Donald Trump
Republicans just got their asses handed to them Tuesday night in a monumental blue wave that was far bigger and more consequential than even the most hopeful of Democrats could have ever begun to predict, and now they're looking for someone to blame for their…
Crooksandliars.com · Yesterday
'We didn't expect this': Texas Democrats stunned as blue wave topples GOP stronghold
Texas Democrat James Talarico toppled Ken Paxton by over 12 points as a blue wave shattered the GOP's grip on the deep -red Lone Star State.
Fox News · Yesterday
Bruised Trump plots 2028 'influence' play after midterm shellacking: report
President Donald Trump has privately told his advisers of a plan “aimed at salvaging his clout” after Republicans’ historic midterm defeat this week, one that would help him “influence elections in 2028 and beyond,” Axios reported Friday.Democrats flipped a…
Raw Story · Yesterday
How The Oligarchs Lost in the Midterms
If you want to know who the biggest midterms loser is, that is, of course, Donald Trump. But the second-biggest loser is the oligarchy.Democrats aren’t strangers to the oligarchy, especially in Silicon Valley, but lately even tech billionaires heavily favor R…
The New Republic · Yesterday