Who is forecasted today to win the Virginia Senate race?
Updated Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 6 days to Election Day · VotePredictor
Mark Warner is favored. The VotePredictor forecast gives Warner a 98% chance of beating Bert Mizusawa, with a predicted margin of Warner +21.7. That is a Safe D race: Warner wins about 19 times in 20, and Mizusawa in the other 2%.
What the forecast is built on
No public poll of this race exists, so the forecast is built on fundamentals: the state's presidential lean (D+7.0), incumbency, the last result (Democrats +12.1 in 2020), and the national environment. It predicts Warner +21.7.
How the forecast has moved
| Date | Warner's chance | Predicted margin |
|---|---|---|
| May 7 | 95% | Warner +26.0 |
| Jun 4 | 95% | Warner +26.0 |
| Jul 2 | 99% | Warner +37.0 |
| Aug 6 | 99% | Warner +37.0 |
| Sep 1 | 99% | Warner +37.0 |
| Oct 1 | >99% | Warner +32.0 |
| Oct 20 | >99% | Warner +32.3 |
| Oct 28 (today) | 98% | Warner +21.7 |
What everyone else says
Rating shops
| Forecaster | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Solid D | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Solid D | Oct 26, 2026 |
| The Economist | Solid D | Oct 27, 2026 |
| FiftyPlusOne | Solid D | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Fox News | Solid D | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Inside Elections | Solid D | Oct 15, 2026 |
| NBC News | Solid D | Oct 26, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics | Solid D | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Solid D | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Silver Bulletin | Solid D | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Split Ticket | Solid D | Oct 27, 2026 |
All 11 rating shops favor Warner.
Can you trust this forecast?
Every VotePredictor forecast is scored after the election against the same outcomes as everyone else's. Across 615 past races (Senate, governor, House and president), our final forecasts rank #2 of every forecaster that covered them all (Brier score 0.075, lower is better); FiveThirtyEight is first at 0.074. The full record is on the forecaster rankings and methodology pages.
This article is regenerated every day from the VotePredictor forecast, the poll database, the prediction markets and the rating shops' latest published ratings. Live numbers are on the race page.