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Wolford v. Lopez

No. 24-1046 · October Term 2025 · Civil Rights · decided June 25, 2026

questions presented (PDF) · docket · Oyez

73%chance Wolford (petitioner) wins · a likely call

Decided: Wolford won 6-3. The model was right.

Expected vote 6–3 for Wolford. Chance of a unanimous ruling 45%. FantasySCOTUS crowd: 64% Wolford.

The case

Jason Wolford and other petitioners are challenging Hawaii's firearm laws, which restrict concealed carry permit holders from carrying handguns on private property open to the public unless express permission is given, and also impose numerous location bans. The Ninth Circuit largely upheld these restrictions, leading to a direct conflict with decisions from several other federal appellate courts. The Supreme Court will now determine whether the Ninth Circuit erred in its interpretation and application of the Second Amendment, particularly concerning private property carry and the historical analysis required by *New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen*.

  • Whether Hawaii can presumptively ban licensed concealed carry on private property open to the public without explicit owner permission, which conflicts with the Second Circuit's ruling.
  • Whether the Ninth Circuit correctly applied the *Bruen* 'text, history, and tradition' test by relying solely on post-Reconstruction Era laws, a method that conflicts with the Third, Fifth, Eighth, and Eleventh Circuits.

AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.

Parties
Petitioner: Jason Wolford, et al., Petitioners
Respondent: Anne E. Lopez, Attorney General of Hawaii
Below
United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit · September 6, 2024
116 F.4th 959 LIMITED TO QUESTION 1 PRESENTED BY THE PETITION. · ruling coded conservative · cert. granted 10/3/2025
Question presented, as filed

New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen , 597 U.S. 1, 33 (2022), holds that "the Second Amendment guarantees a general right to public carry" of arms, meaning ordinary, law-abiding citizens may "'bear' arms in public for self-defense." In this case, the Ninth Circuit sustained a Hawaii law that makes it a crime for a concealed carry permit holder to carry a handgun on private property unless he has been "given express authorization to carry a firearm on the property by the owner, lessee, operator, or manager of the property." H.R.S. § 134-9.5. That holding is in acknowledged direct conflict with the Second Circuit's holding in Antonyuk v. James , 120 F.4th 941 (2d Cir. 2024), a decision that struck down an identical State law in the same procedural posture as this case. The Ninth Circuit also sustained a multitude of other location bans on carry by permit holders, relying solely on post-Reconstruction Era and later laws. That doctrinal approach is in direct conflict with the Third Circuit's decision in Lara v. Commissioner Pennsylvania State Police , 125 F.4th 428 (3d Cir. 2025), the Fifth Circuit's decision in United States v. Connelly , 117 F.4th 269 (5th Cir. 2024), the Eighth Circuit's decision in Worth v. Jacobson , 108 F.4th 677 (8th Cir. 2024), and, most recently, the Eleventh Circuit's en banc decision in NRA v. Bondi , No. 21- 12314, 2025 WL 815734 at *5 (11th Cir. March 14,2025) (en banc), all of which hold that primary focus must be on Founding generation laws and tradition in applying the text, history and tradition test Bruen mandates. The questions presented are: 1. Whether the Ninth Circuit erred in holding, in direct conflict with the Second Circuit, that Hawaii may presumptively prohibit the carry of handguns by licensed concealed carry permit holders on private property open to the public unless the property owner affirmatively gives express permission to the handgun carrier? 2. Whether the Ninth Circuit erred in solely relying on post-Reconstruction Era and later laws in applying Bruen 's text, history and tradition test in direct conflict with the holdings of the Third, Fifth, Eighth and Eleventh Circuits?

Facts of the case (Oyez)

In 2023, Hawaii and California enacted new laws, Act 52 and Senate Bill 2, respectively, that significantly restrict the public carry of firearms. Both laws prohibit individuals with carry permits from bringing firearms into numerous specified “sensitive places.” Hawaii’s list includes fifteen categories, such as bars, restaurants serving alcohol, parks, beaches, and banks. California’s list is broader, covering more than two dozen types of property, including hospitals, public transit, playgrounds, libraries, museums, places of worship, and casinos. Both states also changed the default rule for private property open to the public, generally banning firearms unless the property owner expressly permits them. Hawaii allows owners to consent verbally, in writing, or via a posted sign. California’s rule is stricter, permitting consent only through the posting of a specific, state-mandated sign. Plaintiffs in both states include individuals who hold concealed-carry permits and various gun-rights organizations. They filed lawsuits alleging that these new restrictions violate their Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms. Plaintiffs in both actions sued their respective state attorneys general, and federal district courts issued preliminary injunctions blocking enforcement of many of the new provisions. On appeal, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit consolidated the cases, affirming the injunctions in part but reversing them in large part. The Ninth Circuit’s ruling allowed many of the challenged restrictions to remain in effect but agreed with the district courts that the states could not, for example, ban firearms in banks or hospitals.

The nine

Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in Civil Rights cases, and when the lower court ruled conservative; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.

JusticePredictedOverallThis issueLower court conservativeAt argumentVoted
John G. Roberts
Republican appointee · since OT2005

Chief Justice Roberts joined the majority in *Bruen*, emphasizing the historical tradition of firearm regulation. His vote will likely hinge on whether Hawaii's regulations align with historical analogues from the Founding era.

71% Wolford68%
for the petitioner · 1,512 votes
70%
Civil Rights · 248 votes
61%
lower court conservative · 734 votes
28 / 15
questions at Wolford / Lopez
Wolford ✓
Clarence Thomas
Republican appointee · since OT1991

Justice Thomas authored the majority opinion in *Bruen*, establishing the 'text, history, and tradition' test for Second Amendment cases. He is a strong proponent of expansive Second Amendment rights, and his jurisprudence consistently favors individual gun ownership.

71% Wolford59%
for the petitioner · 2,801 votes
57%
Civil Rights · 464 votes
43%
lower court conservative · 1,365 votes
2 / 7
questions at Wolford / Lopez
Wolford ✓
Samuel A. Alito
Republican appointee · since OT2005

Justice Alito joined the majority in *Bruen* and has consistently voted to protect Second Amendment rights. He is likely to scrutinize Hawaii's laws through the lens of historical tradition, favoring a narrow interpretation of permissible restrictions.

71% Wolford62%
for the petitioner · 1,469 votes
65%
Civil Rights · 244 votes
48%
lower court conservative · 722 votes
9 / 6
questions at Wolford / Lopez
Wolford ✓
Sonia Sotomayor
Democratic appointee · since OT2009

Justice Sotomayor dissented in *Bruen*, expressing concerns about the majority's historical approach and its potential to undermine modern gun safety regulations. She will likely consider the public safety implications of Hawaii's laws.

59% Wolford61%
for the petitioner · 1,192 votes
61%
Civil Rights · 192 votes
76%
lower court conservative · 594 votes
43 / 3
questions at Wolford / Lopez
Lopez ✗
Elena Kagan
Democratic appointee · since OT2010

Justice Kagan also dissented in *Bruen*, criticizing the majority's methodology and its departure from established precedent. She is likely to be skeptical of arguments that broadly invalidate state-level gun regulations.

64% Wolford63%
for the petitioner · 1,072 votes
60%
Civil Rights · 171 votes
75%
lower court conservative · 543 votes
12 / 8
questions at Wolford / Lopez
Lopez ✗
Neil M. Gorsuch
Republican appointee · since OT2016

Justice Gorsuch joined the majority in *Bruen*, aligning with the textualist and originalist approach to the Second Amendment. He will likely focus on whether Hawaii's laws have a clear historical analogue from the Founding era.

71% Wolford65%
for the petitioner · 592 votes
70%
Civil Rights · 99 votes
59%
lower court conservative · 286 votes
9 / 16
questions at Wolford / Lopez
Wolford ✓
Brett M. Kavanaugh
Republican appointee · since OT2018

Justice Kavanaugh joined the majority in *Bruen*, but also wrote a concurring opinion to clarify that the decision did not prohibit all gun regulations. His vote may depend on whether he views Hawaii's specific restrictions as consistent with historical tradition or as reasonable modern regulations.

66% Wolford69%
for the petitioner · 498 votes
64%
Civil Rights · 83 votes
62%
lower court conservative · 244 votes
11 / 8
questions at Wolford / Lopez
Wolford ✓
Amy Coney Barrett
Republican appointee · since OT2020

Justice Barrett joined the majority in *Bruen*, indicating her support for the 'text, history, and tradition' test. Her analysis will likely center on the historical evidence presented regarding private property carry and location bans.

66% Wolford66%
for the petitioner · 360 votes
72%
Civil Rights · 61 votes
60%
lower court conservative · 178 votes
19 / 15
questions at Wolford / Lopez
Wolford ✓
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Democratic appointee · since OT2022

Justice Jackson joined the dissent in *Bruen*, expressing reservations about the historical methodology and its practical implications. She is likely to be more deferential to states' authority to regulate firearms for public safety.

56% Wolford59%
for the petitioner · 244 votes
47%
Civil Rights · 38 votes
80%
lower court conservative · 127 votes
38 / 14
questions at Wolford / Lopez
Lopez ✗

Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.

Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.