Monsanto v. Durnell
No. 24-1068 · October Term 2025 · Economic Activity · decided June 25, 2026
Decided: Monsanto won 7-2. The model was right.
Expected vote 5–4 for Monsanto. Chance of a unanimous ruling 43%. FantasySCOTUS crowd: 52% Monsanto.
The case
John L. Durnell sued Monsanto, alleging that his non-Hodgkin's lymphoma was caused by exposure to Roundup and that Monsanto failed to warn users of this risk. A Missouri court affirmed a jury verdict in Durnell's favor on his failure-to-warn claim. The Supreme Court must now decide whether federal law, specifically the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA), preempts such state-law failure-to-warn claims when the EPA has not required the warning.
- The core legal question is the scope of FIFRA's preemption clause: does it bar state-law failure-to-warn claims when the EPA has approved a label without the warning in question?
- This case will clarify the balance between federal regulatory authority over pesticide labeling and states' ability to impose additional warning requirements through tort law.
- The Court will need to interpret the phrase 'in addition to or different from those required under' FIFRA, considering whether the absence of a federal requirement explicitly precludes state requirements.
- The decision will have significant implications for product liability lawsuits involving federally regulated products and the extent to which federal agency decisions shield manufacturers from state-law claims.
AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.
Question presented, as filed
The Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act ("FIFRA'') creates a comprehensive regulatory scheme governing the use, sale, and labeling of pesticides. The Act preempts any state "requirement[] for labeling or packaging in addition to or different from those required under" FIFRA. 7 U.S.C. §136v(b). For decades, EPA has exercised its authority under FIFRA to find that Monsanto's Roundup product line and its active ingredient, glyphosate, do not cause cancer in humans. Consistent with that understanding, EPA has repeatedly approved Roundup's label without a cancer warning. FIFRA prohibits Monsanto from making any substantive change to an EPA-approved label unless it first obtains EPA's permission. Respondent is one of more than 100,000 plaintiffs across the country that nonetheless seek to hold Monsanto liable for not warning users that glyphosate, the active ingredient in Roundup, causes cancer. The federal courts of appeals and state appellate courts are divided over whether FIFRA preempts such claims. The Third Circuit has held that it does. In the decision below, the Missouri Court of Appeals joined the Ninth and Eleventh Circuits and state appellate courts in California and Oregon in holding that it does not. The question presented is: Whether FIFRA preempts a state-law failure-to- warn claim where EPA has repeatedly concluded that the warning is not required and the warning cannot be added to a product without EPA approval.
Facts of the case (Oyez)
John L. Durnell used Monsanto’s product Roundup, a herbicide containing the active ingredient glyphosate. Durnell subsequently developed non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, which he alleged was caused by his exposure to Roundup and glyphosate. In January 2019, Durnell sued Monsanto, asserting claims for strict liability defective design, strict liability failure to warn, and negligence. Durnell claimed that Monsanto should have included a cancer warning on Roundup’s label to alert users to the risk of developing non-Hodgkin's lymphoma from glyphosate exposure. After a jury trial in September 2023 in the Circuit Court of the City of St. Louis, the jury found in favor of Durnell on his strict liability failure to warn claim and awarded him $1.25 million in compensatory damages, but ruled for Monsanto on the defective design and negligence claims. Monsanto moved for judgment notwithstanding the verdict, arguing that federal law—specifically the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA)—both expressly and impliedly preempted Durnell’s failure to warn claim. The trial court denied the motion, and Monsanto appealed to the Missouri Court of Appeals, Eastern District, which affirmed the judgment.
The nine
Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in Economic Activity cases, and when the lower court ruled liberal; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.
| Justice | Predicted | Overall | This issue | Lower court liberal | At argument | Voted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John G. Roberts Republican appointee · since OT2005 Chief Justice Roberts often favors interpretations that uphold federal regulatory schemes and limit state interference, which could lead him to support preemption in this case. | 59% Monsanto | 68% for the petitioner · 1,512 votes | 68% Economic Activity · 328 votes | 77% lower court liberal · 730 votes | 16 / 3 questions at Monsanto / Durnell | Monsanto ✓ |
Clarence Thomas Republican appointee · since OT1991 Justice Thomas generally adheres to a textualist approach, which would focus on the precise wording of FIFRA's preemption clause. He also tends to be skeptical of expansive federal power, but in preemption cases, this can sometimes lead to upholding federal law over state law. | 56% Monsanto | 59% for the petitioner · 2,801 votes | 62% Economic Activity · 555 votes | 77% lower court liberal · 1,344 votes | 3 / 1 questions at Monsanto / Durnell | Monsanto ✓ |
Samuel A. Alito Republican appointee · since OT2005 Justice Alito often supports federal preemption when there is a clear conflict with state law or when federal law establishes a comprehensive regulatory scheme, which could align with Monsanto's arguments. | 56% Monsanto | 62% for the petitioner · 1,469 votes | 67% Economic Activity · 322 votes | 79% lower court liberal · 699 votes | 0 / 6 questions at Monsanto / Durnell | Monsanto ✓ |
Sonia Sotomayor Democratic appointee · since OT2009 Justice Sotomayor often scrutinizes preemption arguments, particularly when they could limit consumer protections or state tort remedies, suggesting a potential inclination to allow state-law claims unless preemption is explicit and unavoidable. | 56% Monsanto | 61% for the petitioner · 1,192 votes | 58% Economic Activity · 264 votes | 48% lower court liberal · 560 votes | 12 / 0 questions at Monsanto / Durnell | Monsanto ✓ |
Elena Kagan Democratic appointee · since OT2010 Justice Kagan tends to be pragmatic in her approach to statutory interpretation, often considering the intent and purpose of Congress. Her past jurisprudence suggests she might lean towards upholding federal regulatory authority when it is clearly established. | 59% Monsanto | 63% for the petitioner · 1,072 votes | 59% Economic Activity · 249 votes | 51% lower court liberal · 495 votes | 2 / 6 questions at Monsanto / Durnell | Monsanto ✓ |
Neil M. Gorsuch Republican appointee · since OT2016 Justice Gorsuch, a textualist, would likely focus on the plain language of FIFRA's preemption clause. His jurisprudence often emphasizes limiting federal agency overreach, but in preemption, this could mean upholding Congress's clear intent to preempt state law. | 56% Monsanto | 65% for the petitioner · 592 votes | 60% Economic Activity · 141 votes | 75% lower court liberal · 278 votes | 19 / 0 questions at Monsanto / Durnell | Durnell ✗ |
Brett M. Kavanaugh Republican appointee · since OT2018 Justice Kavanaugh often supports federal preemption, particularly in areas where federal agencies have established comprehensive regulatory frameworks, which could lead him to favor Monsanto's position. | 64% Monsanto | 69% for the petitioner · 498 votes | 68% Economic Activity · 123 votes | 77% lower court liberal · 235 votes | 13 / 11 questions at Monsanto / Durnell | Monsanto ✓ |
Amy Coney Barrett Republican appointee · since OT2020 Justice Barrett's textualist approach would focus on the specific language of FIFRA's preemption clause. Her jurisprudence often aligns with a more limited view of federal power, but in preemption, this can mean upholding Congress's clear intent to preempt state law. | 64% Monsanto | 66% for the petitioner · 360 votes | 65% Economic Activity · 85 votes | 76% lower court liberal · 168 votes | 11 / 0 questions at Monsanto / Durnell | Monsanto ✓ |
Ketanji Brown Jackson Democratic appointee · since OT2022 Justice Jackson often considers the practical implications of legal interpretations and may be inclined to protect state-level remedies unless federal preemption is unequivocally established. | 56% Monsanto | 59% for the petitioner · 244 votes | 55% Economic Activity · 62 votes | 38% lower court liberal · 108 votes | 16 / 4 questions at Monsanto / Durnell | Durnell ✗ |
Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.
Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.