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Robinson v. Callais

No. 24-110 · October Term 2025 · Civil Rights

questions presented (PDF) · docket

67%chance Robinson (petitioner) wins · a lean call

Decided: Callais won. The model was wrong.

Expected vote 6–3 for Robinson. Chance of a unanimous ruling 43%. FantasySCOTUS crowd: 41% Robinson.

The case

This case involves a dispute over Louisiana's congressional map, specifically Senate Bill 8, which created two majority-Black districts to comply with the Voting Rights Act. The lower district court found this new map to be an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, dismissing the state legislature's political justifications. The Supreme Court must now determine whether the district court erred in its analysis of racial predominance, its application of Voting Rights Act precedents, and its overall scrutiny of the legislative redistricting process.

  • Whether the District Court properly assessed if race predominated in the design of Congressional District 6, considering the legislature's stated intent to comply with the Voting Rights Act and its political objectives.
  • Whether the District Court erred by requiring the state's enacted map to satisfy the first Gingles precondition, despite prior rulings that these preconditions had been met.
  • Whether the District Court failed to give sufficient deference to the Louisiana Legislature's political considerations in creating a less compact district.
  • Whether the intentional creation of a second majority-minority congressional district violates the Fourteenth or Fifteenth Amendments to the U.S. Constitution.

AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.

Parties
Petitioner: Press Robinson, et al., Appellants
Respondent: Phillip Callais, et al.
Below
United States District Court for the Western District of Louisiana · April 30, 2024
732 F.Supp.3d 574 LOWER COURT CASE NUMBER: 3:24-cv-00122-DCJ-CES-RRS · ruling coded conservative
Question presented, as filed

By January 2024, the Middle District of Louisiana and two separate panels of the Fifth Circuit had unanimously come to the same conclusion: Louisiana's 2022 congressional map likely violated §2 of the Voting Rights Act because it failed to include two districts in which Black voters had an opportunity to elect representatives of their choice. See Robinson v. Ardoin, 86 F.4th 574 (5th Cir. 2023). To avoid ceding its districting prerogative to the courts, Louisiana's Legislature enacted Senate Bill 8 ("SB8"), a new plan with two majority- Black districts. SB8 was selected over more compact plans that also satisfied §2 for the avowed political purpose of protecting favored incumbents and damaging a political rival of the Governor. After an extraordinarily - and improperly - expedited trial, the divided three-judge district court dismissed Louisiana's political rationale for SB8, failed to holistically analyze the plan, and ignored record evidence to conclude that SB8 was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. The majority never afforded the Legislature the presumption of good faith this Court requires, imposed on the challengers the heavy burden of overcoming that presumption, scrutinized how the specific contours of SB8's Congressional District 6 ("CD6") reflected the Legislature's non-racial objectives, nor required the challengers to identify an alternative map that accomplished Louisiana's political objectives while also resolving the §2 litigation and retaining legislative control of the redistricting process. The questions presented are: 1 . Did the District Court err in concluding that race predominated in the design of CD 6 based on the Legislature's stated intent to comply with the rulings of the Robinson courts without presuming the good faith of the legislature, attempting to disentangle the Legislature's racial and political considerations, or requiring an alternative map that satisfied both § 2 and the Legislature's political objectives, as required by Alexander v. S. C. State Conf. of NAACP , 144 S. Ct. 1221 , 1233-1234 ( 2024 )? 2. Did the District Court err when it disregarded the rulings of the courts in Robinson that the Gingles preconditions could be (and had been) satisfied and instead required that the State's enacted map satisfy the first Gingles precondition to survive strict scrutiny? 3. Did the District Court err in failing to accord the Louisiana Legislature sufficient breathing room to account for political considerations that resulted in a less compact district than necessary to satisfy §2? 4. Did the District Court err in relying on extra-record evidence and ignoring the evidence in the record on SB8's respect for communities of interest in concluding that SB8 failed to satisfy strict scrutiny? 5. Did the District Court abuse its discretion by unnecessarily expediting the proceedings and limiting the evidence presented in this complex, fact-intensive case? CONSOLIDATED FOR ONE HOUR ORAL ARGUMENT WITH 24-109 . THESE CASES ARE RESTORED TO THE CALENDAR FOR REARGUMENT. IN DUE COURSE, THE COURT WILL ISSUE AN ORDER SCHEDULING ARGUMENT AND SPECIFYING ANY ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO BE ADDRESSED IN SUPPLEMENTAL BRIEFING. Order of August 1 , 2025 : THE PARTIES ARE DIRECTED TO FILE SUPPLEMENTAL BRIEFS ADDRESSING THE FOLLOWING QUESTION RAISED ON PAGES 36 — 38 OF THE BRIEF FOR APPELLEES: WHETHER THE STATE ’ S INTENTIONAL CREATION OF A SECOND MAJORITY-MINORITY CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT VIOLATES THE FOURTEENTH OR FIFTEENTH AMENDMENTS TO THE U. S. CONSTITUTION. JURISDICTION NOTED 11/4/2024

The nine

Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in Civil Rights cases, and when the lower court ruled conservative; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.

JusticePredictedOverallThis issueLower court conservativeAt argumentVoted
John G. Roberts
Republican appointee · since OT2005

Chief Justice Roberts has authored opinions in significant redistricting cases, often emphasizing the need for clear standards in racial gerrymandering claims and the presumption of legislative good faith. His jurisprudence often seeks to balance the Voting Rights Act with constitutional concerns about race-conscious districting.

63% Robinson68%
for the petitioner · 1,512 votes
70%
Civil Rights · 248 votes
61%
lower court conservative · 734 votes
not yet arguednot coded
Clarence Thomas
Republican appointee · since OT1991

Justice Thomas generally takes a skeptical view of race-conscious districting, often arguing for a narrow interpretation of the Voting Rights Act and emphasizing colorblindness in electoral processes. He is likely to scrutinize the extent to which race was a predominant factor in the map's design.

52% Robinson59%
for the petitioner · 2,801 votes
57%
Civil Rights · 464 votes
43%
lower court conservative · 1,365 votes
not yet arguednot coded
Samuel A. Alito
Republican appointee · since OT2005

Justice Alito typically aligns with a conservative approach to redistricting, often expressing concerns about racial gerrymandering and the overreach of federal courts into state legislative prerogatives. He would likely emphasize the heavy burden on challengers to prove racial predominance.

57% Robinson62%
for the petitioner · 1,469 votes
65%
Civil Rights · 244 votes
48%
lower court conservative · 722 votes
not yet arguednot coded
Sonia Sotomayor
Democratic appointee · since OT2009

Justice Sotomayor is a strong proponent of the Voting Rights Act and has consistently voted to uphold its protections for minority voters. She would likely scrutinize the district court's findings to ensure that the state's efforts to create majority-Black districts were not improperly dismissed.

68% Robinson61%
for the petitioner · 1,192 votes
61%
Civil Rights · 192 votes
76%
lower court conservative · 594 votes
not yet arguednot coded
Elena Kagan
Democratic appointee · since OT2010

Justice Kagan generally supports a robust interpretation of the Voting Rights Act and has often joined opinions that uphold efforts to ensure minority representation. She would likely be concerned with the district court's alleged failure to give proper deference to the legislature's compliance with Section 2.

68% Robinson63%
for the petitioner · 1,072 votes
60%
Civil Rights · 171 votes
75%
lower court conservative · 543 votes
not yet arguednot coded
Neil M. Gorsuch
Republican appointee · since OT2016

Justice Gorsuch often emphasizes textualism and originalism, which in redistricting cases can lead to a skeptical view of judicial intervention in legislative processes. He would likely focus on whether the district court overstepped its bounds or failed to apply the correct legal standards.

63% Robinson65%
for the petitioner · 592 votes
70%
Civil Rights · 99 votes
59%
lower court conservative · 286 votes
not yet arguednot coded
Brett M. Kavanaugh
Republican appointee · since OT2018

Justice Kavanaugh has often sought to find common ground in complex cases and has shown a willingness to uphold legislative prerogatives when possible. He would likely be interested in whether the district court properly disentangled racial and political considerations.

63% Robinson69%
for the petitioner · 498 votes
64%
Civil Rights · 83 votes
62%
lower court conservative · 244 votes
not yet arguednot coded
Amy Coney Barrett
Republican appointee · since OT2020

Justice Barrett often emphasizes judicial restraint and a strict interpretation of statutes. In redistricting, she would likely focus on whether the district court adhered to established precedents regarding the presumption of legislative good faith and the burden of proof in racial gerrymandering claims.

63% Robinson66%
for the petitioner · 360 votes
72%
Civil Rights · 61 votes
60%
lower court conservative · 178 votes
not yet arguednot coded
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Democratic appointee · since OT2022

Justice Jackson has consistently expressed strong support for the Voting Rights Act and its role in ensuring fair representation for minority voters. She would likely be highly critical of any judicial action that undermines efforts to create majority-minority districts to remedy Section 2 violations.

70% Robinson59%
for the petitioner · 244 votes
47%
Civil Rights · 38 votes
80%
lower court conservative · 127 votes
not yet arguednot coded

Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.

Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.