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Learning Resources v. Trump

No. 24-1287 · October Term 2025 · Economic Activity · decided February 20, 2026

questions presented (PDF) · docket · Oyez

67%chance Learning Resources (petitioner) wins · a lean call

Decided: Learning Resources won 6-3. The model was right.

Expected vote 6–3 for Learning Resources. Chance of a unanimous ruling 44%. FantasySCOTUS crowd: 57% Learning Resources.

The case

Learning Resources, Inc. and hand2mind, Inc., two family-owned educational product businesses, are suing President Donald J. Trump over his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs. The D.C. District Court initially granted a preliminary injunction, finding that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, but this ruling was stayed. The Supreme Court must now decide whether IEEPA grants the President the authority to impose tariffs.

  • Does the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) authorize the President to impose tariffs, or is this power reserved for Congress?
  • What is the proper interpretation of IEEPA's language regarding the President's authority to regulate international economic transactions?
  • How does the historical non-use of IEEPA for tariffs impact its current interpretation regarding presidential power?

AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.

Parties
Petitioner: Learning Resources, Inc., et al., Petitioners
Respondent: Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, et al.
Below
United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit
THE PETITION FOR A WRIT OF CERTIORARI BEFORE JUDGMENT IS GRANTED. CONSOLIDATED WITH 25-250 FOR ONE HOUR ORAL ARGUMENT. EXPEDITED BRIEFING. THE CASES WILL BE SET FOR ARGUMENT IN THE FIRST WEEK OF THE NOVEMBER 2025 ARGUMENT SESSION. · ruling coded liberal · cert. granted 9/9/2025
Question presented, as filed

The International Emergency Economic Powers Act, 50 U.S.C. § 1701 et seq. ("IEEPA") permits the President, upon a valid emergency declaration, to "investigate, block during the pendency of an investigation, regulate, direct and compel, nullify, void, prevent or prohibit, any acquisition, holding, withholding, use, transfer, withdrawal, transportation, importation or exportation of, or dealing in, or exercising any right, power, or privilege with respect to, or transactions involving, any property in which any foreign country or a national thereof has any interest[.]" Id. § l 702(a)(1)(B). Until now, no President in IEEPA's nearly 50-year history has ever invoked it to impose tariffs-let alone the sweeping worldwide tariffs imposed pursuant to the executive orders challenged here. The question presented is: Whether IEEPA authorizes the President to impose tariffs.

Facts of the case (Oyez)

Learning Resources, Inc. and hand2mind, Inc. are family-owned businesses that design and distribute educational products for children. Although their product development and some assembly occur domestically, most of their manufacturing is outsourced to international partners, including China. Beginning in early 2025, a series of executive orders from President Donald J. Trump, invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”), imposed unprecedented tariffs on imports, including goods from China. These included a 20% “trafficking” tariff and additional “reciprocal” tariffs that pushed rates on Chinese goods to over 145%. Petitioners’ imports were directly affected, and complying with the new tariffs would increase their import-related costs from $2.3 million in 2024 to over $100 million in 2025, putting their businesses at existential risk. The petitioners filed suit on April 22, 2025, in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, challenging the legality of the IEEPA tariffs. The district court granted a preliminary injunction on May 29, 2025, holding that IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs and finding that the tariffs posed an existential threat to the petitioners. However, that ruling was stayed just days later, and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit docketed the case. Meanwhile, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled similarly in related cases but its decision was also stayed by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

The nine

Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in Economic Activity cases, and when the lower court ruled liberal; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.

JusticePredictedOverallThis issueLower court liberalAt argumentVoted
John G. Roberts
Republican appointee · since OT2005

Chief Justice Roberts often emphasizes textualism and the separation of powers, which could lead him to scrutinize whether IEEPA's text explicitly grants tariff authority or if such power is inherently legislative. His concern for institutional balance might also weigh against an expansive interpretation of executive power.

63% Learning Resources68%
for the petitioner · 1,512 votes
68%
Economic Activity · 328 votes
77%
lower court liberal · 730 votes
not yet arguedLearning Resources ✓
Clarence Thomas
Republican appointee · since OT1991

Justice Thomas is a strong proponent of originalism and textualism, and he is likely to interpret IEEPA strictly based on its plain language at the time of its enactment, potentially finding that it does not encompass tariff authority. He often favors limiting executive power where not explicitly granted by statute or the Constitution.

66% Learning Resources59%
for the petitioner · 2,801 votes
62%
Economic Activity · 555 votes
77%
lower court liberal · 1,344 votes
not yet arguedTrump ✗
Samuel A. Alito
Republican appointee · since OT2005

Justice Alito generally favors a textualist approach and has often expressed skepticism about broad interpretations of executive authority, particularly when it encroaches on powers traditionally held by Congress. He would likely focus on whether the statute's language clearly permits the imposition of tariffs.

66% Learning Resources62%
for the petitioner · 1,469 votes
67%
Economic Activity · 322 votes
79%
lower court liberal · 699 votes
not yet arguedTrump ✗
Sonia Sotomayor
Democratic appointee · since OT2009

Justice Sotomayor often considers the practical implications of statutory interpretations and may look at the legislative history or congressional intent behind IEEPA. She might be open to a broader reading of executive power in emergency situations if supported by the statute's purpose, but also considers the impact on affected parties.

57% Learning Resources61%
for the petitioner · 1,192 votes
58%
Economic Activity · 264 votes
48%
lower court liberal · 560 votes
not yet arguedLearning Resources ✓
Elena Kagan
Democratic appointee · since OT2010

Justice Kagan often employs a pragmatic approach to statutory interpretation, considering both text and context, including legislative history and the statute's purpose. She might examine whether Congress intended IEEPA to provide broad flexibility to the President in economic emergencies, while also being mindful of potential overreach.

57% Learning Resources63%
for the petitioner · 1,072 votes
59%
Economic Activity · 249 votes
51%
lower court liberal · 495 votes
not yet arguedLearning Resources ✓
Neil M. Gorsuch
Republican appointee · since OT2016

Justice Gorsuch is a firm textualist and originalist, and he is likely to interpret IEEPA's language narrowly, focusing on the precise words used and their meaning at the time of enactment. He often expresses concerns about the delegation of legislative power to the executive branch.

66% Learning Resources65%
for the petitioner · 592 votes
60%
Economic Activity · 141 votes
75%
lower court liberal · 278 votes
not yet arguedLearning Resources ✓
Brett M. Kavanaugh
Republican appointee · since OT2018

Justice Kavanaugh generally adheres to textualism and has shown a tendency to respect congressional intent as expressed in statutory language. He would likely examine whether the specific terms of IEEPA explicitly grant the President the power to impose tariffs, or if such an action falls outside its scope.

66% Learning Resources69%
for the petitioner · 498 votes
68%
Economic Activity · 123 votes
77%
lower court liberal · 235 votes
not yet arguedTrump ✗
Amy Coney Barrett
Republican appointee · since OT2020

Justice Barrett is a textualist who emphasizes the plain meaning of statutory language. She would likely focus on whether the text of IEEPA, read in its ordinary sense, authorizes the President to impose tariffs, and may be wary of inferring powers not explicitly granted.

66% Learning Resources66%
for the petitioner · 360 votes
65%
Economic Activity · 85 votes
76%
lower court liberal · 168 votes
not yet arguedLearning Resources ✓
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Democratic appointee · since OT2022

Justice Jackson often considers the practical effects of legal interpretations and may look to the broader context and purpose of a statute. She might consider the historical application of IEEPA and whether the current executive actions align with congressional intent, while also being attentive to the separation of powers.

57% Learning Resources59%
for the petitioner · 244 votes
55%
Economic Activity · 62 votes
38%
lower court liberal · 108 votes
not yet arguedLearning Resources ✓

Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.

Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.