Little v. Hecox
No. 24-38 · October Term 2025 · Civil Rights
Decided: Little won. The model was right.
Expected vote 7–2 for Little. Chance of a unanimous ruling 46%. FantasySCOTUS crowd: 68% Little.
The case
Idaho's Fairness in Women's Sports Act, which bars transgender women and girls from participating in female athletic teams, is being challenged by Lindsay Hecox, a transgender woman, and Jane Doe, a cisgender athlete. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed a preliminary injunction against the Act as applied to Hecox, finding it likely unconstitutional. The Supreme Court must now decide whether laws that protect women's and girls' sports by limiting participation based on sex violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.
- Does the Idaho law, which defines 'sex' based on biological characteristics at birth, violate the Equal Protection Clause by excluding transgender women from women's sports?
- What level of scrutiny should apply to laws that differentiate based on sex, particularly when considering the inclusion of transgender individuals?
- How does the Court's precedent in *Bostock v. Clayton County* (2020), which interpreted 'sex' to include sexual orientation and gender identity in the context of employment discrimination, apply to the Equal Protection Clause in the context of sports?
- Does the state's interest in ensuring fairness in women's sports justify a categorical ban on transgender women's participation?
AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.
Question presented, as filed
Women and girls have overcome decades of discrimination to achieve a more equal playing field in many arenas of American life-including sports. Yet in some competitions, female athletes have become bystanders in their own sports as male athletes who identify as female have taken the place of their female competitors-on the field and on the winners' podium. The Idaho Legislature addressed that injustice by enacting the Fairness in Women's Sports Act, which ensures that women and girls do not have to compete against men and boys no matter how those men and boys identify. The Act-one of 25 such state laws around the country-is consistent with longstanding government policies preserving women's and girls' sports due to the "average real differences" between the sexes. Clark ex rel. Clark v. Ariz. Interscholastic Ass'n, 695 F.2d 1126, 1131 (9th Cir. 1982). Breaking with this Court's precedents, its own caselaw, other circuit decisions, and biological reality, the Ninth Circuit panel here upheld an injunction against the Act because it prevents "transgender women and girls"-meaning males who identify as women and girls-from competing in "women's student athletics." App.4a-5a. The question presented is: Whether laws that seek to protect women's and girls' sports by limiting participation to women and girls based on sex violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.
Facts of the case (Oyez)
In 2020, Idaho enacted the Fairness in Women’s Sports Act, which categorically barred transgender girls and women from participating on female athletic teams in public schools—from elementary school through college. Prior to the law’s passage, Idaho’s high school athletic association and the NCAA allowed transgender women to compete on women’s teams after a year of hormone therapy. At the time, there were no known instances of transgender girls competing in Idaho athletics under those existing rules. Nonetheless, Idaho lawmakers passed the Act, citing concerns about “fairness” and biological differences attributed to testosterone and other factors. The law allowed any individual to challenge a female athlete’s gender, triggering a mandatory medical verification process that could include analysis of reproductive anatomy, genetic make-up, or testosterone levels. Cisgender women, including those perceived as more masculine, could also be subjected to these checks. Lindsay Hecox, a transgender woman and student at Boise State University who wished to join the women’s cross-country team, filed suit alongside a cisgender high school athlete known as Jane Doe. They alleged that the Act violated their constitutional rights, including the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. Hecox had undergone hormone therapy, significantly lowering her testosterone levels, but was still categorically excluded under the law. The district court granted a preliminary injunction blocking the law in August 2020, finding it likely unconstitutional. After several rounds of appeal and remand, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ultimately affirmed the injunction as applied to Hecox but remanded the case to the district court to reconsider the scope of the injunction, especially in light of the Supreme Court’s 2024 decision in Labrador v. Poe.
The nine
Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in Civil Rights cases, and when the lower court ruled liberal; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.
| Justice | Predicted | Overall | This issue | Lower court liberal | At argument | Voted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John G. Roberts Republican appointee · since OT2005 Chief Justice Roberts often emphasizes judicial restraint and a narrow reading of statutes, which could lead him to focus on the specific language of the Equal Protection Clause and existing precedents regarding sex-based classifications. His jurisprudence often seeks to avoid broad pronouncements that could disrupt established legal frameworks. | 79% Little | 68% for the petitioner · 1,512 votes | 70% Civil Rights · 248 votes | 77% lower court liberal · 730 votes | 17 / 13 questions at Little / Hecox | not coded |
Clarence Thomas Republican appointee · since OT1991 Justice Thomas is a staunch originalist and textualist, consistently interpreting constitutional provisions based on their original public meaning. He is likely to scrutinize the historical understanding of 'sex' and the Equal Protection Clause at the time of its adoption, which would likely favor the state's traditional definition of sex. | 76% Little | 59% for the petitioner · 2,801 votes | 57% Civil Rights · 464 votes | 77% lower court liberal · 1,344 votes | 4 / 4 questions at Little / Hecox | not coded |
Samuel A. Alito Republican appointee · since OT2005 Justice Alito frequently takes a conservative approach to social issues and has expressed skepticism about expanding protections based on gender identity beyond traditional understandings of sex. He is likely to prioritize the state's interest in protecting women's sports based on biological sex differences. | 88% Little | 62% for the petitioner · 1,469 votes | 65% Civil Rights · 244 votes | 79% lower court liberal · 699 votes | 4 / 13 questions at Little / Hecox | not coded |
Sonia Sotomayor Democratic appointee · since OT2009 Justice Sotomayor is known for her robust defense of civil rights and her focus on the real-world impact of laws on marginalized groups. She is likely to consider the discriminatory impact of the Idaho law on transgender individuals and may lean towards an interpretation of the Equal Protection Clause that offers broader protections. | 59% Little | 61% for the petitioner · 1,192 votes | 61% Civil Rights · 192 votes | 48% lower court liberal · 560 votes | 43 / 11 questions at Little / Hecox | not coded |
Elena Kagan Democratic appointee · since OT2010 Justice Kagan often seeks common ground and has a pragmatic approach to legal interpretation, though she generally aligns with the Court's liberal wing on civil rights issues. She may explore how *Bostock* informs the understanding of sex discrimination in this context, while also considering the practical implications for women's sports. | 71% Little | 63% for the petitioner · 1,072 votes | 60% Civil Rights · 171 votes | 51% lower court liberal · 495 votes | 22 / 11 questions at Little / Hecox | not coded |
Neil M. Gorsuch Republican appointee · since OT2016 Justice Gorsuch authored the majority opinion in *Bostock v. Clayton County*, which interpreted 'sex' to include gender identity for Title VII purposes. His textualist approach in *Bostock* could lead him to consider how 'sex' is understood in the Equal Protection Clause, potentially favoring a broader interpretation that includes transgender individuals. | 88% Little | 65% for the petitioner · 592 votes | 70% Civil Rights · 99 votes | 75% lower court liberal · 278 votes | 7 / 15 questions at Little / Hecox | not coded |
Brett M. Kavanaugh Republican appointee · since OT2018 Justice Kavanaugh often emphasizes historical practice and precedent, and he tends to be cautious about judicial overreach. He may look to established Equal Protection jurisprudence regarding sex classifications and consider the state's asserted interest in maintaining fair competition in women's sports. | 80% Little | 69% for the petitioner · 498 votes | 64% Civil Rights · 83 votes | 77% lower court liberal · 235 votes | 16 / 4 questions at Little / Hecox | not coded |
Amy Coney Barrett Republican appointee · since OT2020 Justice Barrett often employs a textualist and originalist methodology, similar to Justice Gorsuch and Justice Thomas, but she also considers the practical implications of legal interpretations. She will likely examine the plain meaning of the Equal Protection Clause and the historical context of sex-based classifications. | 79% Little | 66% for the petitioner · 360 votes | 72% Civil Rights · 61 votes | 76% lower court liberal · 168 votes | 14 / 17 questions at Little / Hecox | not coded |
Ketanji Brown Jackson Democratic appointee · since OT2022 Justice Jackson is known for her focus on the historical context of constitutional provisions and the lived experiences of those affected by laws. She is likely to consider the history of discrimination against women and LGBTQ+ individuals, and how the Idaho law impacts transgender girls and women. | 59% Little | 59% for the petitioner · 244 votes | 47% Civil Rights · 38 votes | 38% lower court liberal · 108 votes | 47 / 1 questions at Little / Hecox | not coded |
Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.
Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.