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Havana Docks v. Royal Caribbean

No. 24-983 · October Term 2025 · Economic Activity · decided May 21, 2026

questions presented (PDF) · docket · Oyez

73%chance Havana Docks (petitioner) wins · a likely call

Decided: Havana Docks won 8-1. The model was right.

Expected vote 6–3 for Havana Docks. Chance of a unanimous ruling 48%. FantasySCOTUS crowd: 60% Havana Docks.

The case

Havana Docks Corporation, a U.S. national, is suing several cruise lines, including Royal Caribbean, for allegedly "trafficking" in property confiscated by the Cuban government. The Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals reversed a lower court's judgment, holding that Havana Docks' property interest would have expired before the alleged trafficking occurred. The Supreme Court must now determine the proper interpretation of "trafficking" under the LIBERTAD Act, specifically whether a plaintiff must prove ownership at the time of trafficking or if a counterfactual "as if there had been no expropriation" standard applies.

  • The central legal question is how to interpret the LIBERTAD Act's requirement that a plaintiff prove a defendant trafficked in property "as to which the plaintiff owns a claim."
  • The Court will decide whether to adopt the Eleventh Circuit's "as if there had been no expropriation" standard, which could significantly limit the scope of Title III claims.
  • The interpretation will impact the effectiveness of Title III of the LIBERTAD Act as a tool of U.S. foreign policy toward Cuba.
  • The case involves statutory interpretation, potentially touching on the balance between congressional intent in foreign policy and the specific language of a private right of action.

AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.

Parties
Petitioner: Havana Docks Corporation, Petitioner
Respondent: Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd., et al.
Below
United States Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit · October 22, 2024
119 F.4th 1276 · ruling coded conservative · cert. granted 10/3/2025
Question presented, as filed

The LIBERTAD Act is an essential pillar of United States foreign policy toward Cuba's hostile and anti-American regime. Title III of that Act creates a private right of action for United States nationals who have a claim to property confiscated by that regime against persons who traffic in that property. 22 U.S.C. § 6082(a)(1). The Act specifies that such trafficking "undermines the foreign policy of the United States" by, among other things, "provid[ing] badly needed financial benefit" to the Cuban regime. Id . § 6081(6). The question presented here applies in every case brought under Title III, and will determine whether that provision continues to advance U.S. foreign policy toward Cuba: whether a plaintiff must prove that the defendant trafficked in property confiscated by the Cuban government as to which the plaintiff owns a claim (as the statute requires), or instead that the defendant trafficked in property that the plaintiff would have continued to own at the time of trafficking in a counterfactual world "as if there had been no expropriation" (as the divided Eleventh Circuit panel held below).

Facts of the case (Oyez)

The dispute centers on property in the Port of Havana now known as the Havana Cruise Port Terminal. In the early 20th century, the Cuban Government granted a 50-year concession to a predecessor of Havana Docks Corporation (Havana Docks) to build and operate piers and terminal facilities at the port. This concession, a usufructuary right, was extended to 99 years in 1920, with a scheduled expiration date in 2004. Havana Docks, a company organized under the laws of Delaware and determined to be a U.S. national, acquired the concession in 1928. In 1960, shortly after Fidel Castro came to power, the Cuban Government confiscated the concession, expropriating Havana Docks’ property and assets at the Port of Havana without compensation. Subsequently, Havana Docks filed a claim with the Foreign Claims Settlement Commission, which certified a loss of over $9 million stemming from the confiscation. After Title III of the Helms-Burton Act became fully effective in May 2019, Havana Docks sued several cruise lines, including Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd., Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Ltd., Carnival Corporation, and MSC Cruises S.A. Co., for “trafficking” in the confiscated port property when their ships used the Havana Cruise Port Terminal from 2016 to 2019. The district court initially issued judgments totaling over $100 million against the four cruise lines. On appeal, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit affirmed the district court’s finding that Havana Docks is a U.S. national under the Helms-Burton Act. However, the Eleventh Circuit reversed the judgments related to the 2016-2019 conduct, holding that Havana Docks’ limited property interest, the 99-year concession, would have expired in 2004, meaning the cruise lines did not traffic in the confiscated property during that period. The court remanded the case for further proceedings on Havana Docks’ separate claims against Carnival for alleged trafficking between 1996 and 2001.

The nine

Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in Economic Activity cases, and when the lower court ruled conservative; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.

JusticePredictedOverallThis issueLower court conservativeAt argumentVoted
John G. Roberts
Republican appointee · since OT2005

Chief Justice Roberts often emphasizes textualism and the plain meaning of statutory language, which could lead him to focus on the specific wording of the LIBERTAD Act regarding ownership at the time of trafficking. He also tends to be deferential to Congress in matters of foreign policy, which could influence his view on the Act's purpose.

69% Havana Docks68%
for the petitioner · 1,512 votes
68%
Economic Activity · 328 votes
61%
lower court conservative · 734 votes
19 / 4
questions at Havana / Royal
Havana Docks ✓
Clarence Thomas
Republican appointee · since OT1991

Justice Thomas is a strong proponent of originalism and textualism, suggesting he would closely scrutinize the statutory text of the LIBERTAD Act. His jurisprudence often favors strict adherence to the law's written terms, potentially rejecting an expansive interpretation not explicitly supported by the text.

64% Havana Docks59%
for the petitioner · 2,801 votes
62%
Economic Activity · 555 votes
43%
lower court conservative · 1,365 votes
8 / 4
questions at Havana / Royal
Havana Docks ✓
Samuel A. Alito
Republican appointee · since OT2005

Justice Alito generally favors a textualist approach to statutory interpretation and has often supported robust enforcement of U.S. foreign policy objectives. He may be inclined to interpret the statute in a way that aligns with the stated purpose of undermining the Cuban regime.

71% Havana Docks62%
for the petitioner · 1,469 votes
67%
Economic Activity · 322 votes
48%
lower court conservative · 722 votes
15 / 4
questions at Havana / Royal
Havana Docks ✓
Sonia Sotomayor
Democratic appointee · since OT2009

Justice Sotomayor often considers the practical implications of statutory interpretations and the broader context of legislative intent. She may examine how the different interpretations would affect the overall goals of the LIBERTAD Act and its impact on claimants.

66% Havana Docks61%
for the petitioner · 1,192 votes
58%
Economic Activity · 264 votes
76%
lower court conservative · 594 votes
36 / 7
questions at Havana / Royal
Havana Docks ✓
Elena Kagan
Democratic appointee · since OT2010

Justice Kagan frequently employs a pragmatic approach to statutory interpretation, considering both text and legislative purpose. She might look to the legislative history and the stated foreign policy goals of the LIBERTAD Act to inform her understanding of "trafficking."

66% Havana Docks63%
for the petitioner · 1,072 votes
59%
Economic Activity · 249 votes
75%
lower court conservative · 543 votes
10 / 3
questions at Havana / Royal
Royal Caribbean ✗
Neil M. Gorsuch
Republican appointee · since OT2016

Justice Gorsuch is a staunch textualist, prioritizing the plain meaning of the statutory language. He would likely focus on the precise wording of the LIBERTAD Act to determine whether it requires ownership at the time of trafficking or allows for a counterfactual scenario.

79% Havana Docks65%
for the petitioner · 592 votes
60%
Economic Activity · 141 votes
59%
lower court conservative · 286 votes
7 / 24
questions at Havana / Royal
Havana Docks ✓
Brett M. Kavanaugh
Republican appointee · since OT2018

Justice Kavanaugh often emphasizes clear statutory language and congressional intent. He may be inclined to interpret the LIBERTAD Act in a manner that supports its stated foreign policy objectives, while also adhering to the text as he understands it.

71% Havana Docks69%
for the petitioner · 498 votes
68%
Economic Activity · 123 votes
62%
lower court conservative · 244 votes
11 / 4
questions at Havana / Royal
Havana Docks ✓
Amy Coney Barrett
Republican appointee · since OT2020

Justice Barrett is a textualist who prioritizes the ordinary public meaning of statutory language. She would likely focus on the precise wording of the LIBERTAD Act to determine the scope of the private right of action and the definition of "trafficking."

71% Havana Docks66%
for the petitioner · 360 votes
65%
Economic Activity · 85 votes
60%
lower court conservative · 178 votes
18 / 7
questions at Havana / Royal
Havana Docks ✓
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Democratic appointee · since OT2022

Justice Jackson often considers the legislative history and purpose of a statute in her interpretive approach. She may examine the broader context of the LIBERTAD Act's enactment and its role in U.S. foreign policy to inform her understanding of the "trafficking" provision.

71% Havana Docks59%
for the petitioner · 244 votes
55%
Economic Activity · 62 votes
80%
lower court conservative · 127 votes
20 / 15
questions at Havana / Royal
Havana Docks ✓

Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.

Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.