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Guerrero v. Johnson

No. 25-1003 · October Term 2026 · Judicial Power · argument November 4, 2026

questions presented (PDF) · docket · Oyez

67%chance Guerrero (petitioner) wins · the base rate before argument

Expected vote 6–3 for Guerrero. Chance of a unanimous ruling 44%.

Before oral argument the model knows only the case's structure: the issue area, which way the lower court ruled, and each justice's record on both. That is not enough to separate cases, so every unargued case carries the petitioner's base rate. The transcript features arrive within days of argument and the number becomes a call.

The case

Eric Guerrero, Director of the Texas Department of Criminal Justice, is challenging a Fifth Circuit ruling that allowed Dexter Johnson to file a successive habeas petition. Johnson, a death row inmate, argues that new diagnostic criteria for intellectual disability (DSM-5) made his Eighth Amendment claim under *Atkins v. Virginia* "previously unavailable" in his earlier habeas proceedings. The Supreme Court must now determine the meaning of "previously unavailable" under AEDPA when a claim based on a new rule could have been asserted earlier but would not have succeeded.

  • The core legal question is how to interpret "previously unavailable" in AEDPA's exception for successive habeas petitions based on new rules of constitutional law.
  • The Court will resolve a circuit split: whether a claim is "previously unavailable" only if it had some possibility of merit at the time of an earlier petition, or if the mere ability to assert the claim, regardless of its likelihood of success, makes it available.
  • The decision will impact the ability of state prisoners to bring successive habeas claims, particularly those relying on evolving scientific or medical standards that inform constitutional claims.
  • This case touches on the balance between finality in criminal judgments and the opportunity for prisoners to raise claims based on new legal or factual developments.

AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.

Parties
Petitioner: Eric Guerrero, Director, Texas Department of Criminal Justice, Correctional Institutions Division, Petitioner
Respondent: Dexter Johnson
Below
United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit · July 23, 2025
23-70002 · ruling coded liberal · cert. granted 6/15/2026
Question presented, as filed

The Anti-Terrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (AEDPA) prohibits successive habeas applications by state prisoners with only narrow exceptions, including for claims that "rel[y] on a new rule of constitutional law, made retroactive to cases on collateral review by the Supreme Court, that was previously unavailable." 28 U.S.C. § 2244(b)(2)(A). Near-identical language allows federal prisoners to file a successive habeas motion that contains "a new rule of constitutional law, made retroactive to cases on collateral review by the Supreme Court, that was previously unavailable." Id. § 2255(h)(2). The courts of appeals are divided over whether claims rely on "a new rule ... that was previously unavailable" when a claim based on the rule could have been raised in an earlier federal habeas petition but would not have succeeded. The Eleventh and Fourth Circuits hold that whether a claim would have been meritorious does not affect whether the rule was previously available. In the decision below, the Fifth Circuit adhered to its view (and that of the Ninth Circuit) that a claim was previously available only if it had "some possibility of merit" based on the evidence available to the petitioner at the time of an earlier petition. The question presented is: Whether a claim relies on a "a new rule of constitutional law, made retroactive to cases on collateral review by the Supreme Court, that was previously unavailable" when the habeas petitioner could have asserted a claim based on the rule in a prior federal habeas petition.

Facts of the case (Oyez)

Dexter Johnson kidnapped, raped, and murdered Maria Aparece in June 2006, years after the Supreme Court decided Atkins v. Virginia, 536 U.S. 304 (2002), which held the Eighth Amendment prohibits executing intellectually disabled people. At trial, Johnson’s own defense expert tested his IQ between 74 and 88, concluded he showed no obvious adaptive deficits, and opined that he was not intellectually disabled. Johnson was convicted of capital murder and sentenced to death in June 2007. Johnson did not raise an Atkins claim in his initial state habeas application or his initial federal habeas petition filed in 2011. Instead, he argued that the Atkins principles should extend to the mentally ill. In May 2013, the American Psychiatric Association published the DSM-5, which substantially revised intellectual disability diagnosis by de-emphasizing IQ score cutoffs and recognizing that individuals with scores above 70 could still qualify. Johnson's federal habeas petition was denied in August 2013—just months after the DSM-5’s publication. Johnson’s counsel, aware of the DSM-5, chose not to develop an Atkins claim, citing concerns about unfavorable Texas state court standards and his strategic focus on other claims. With an execution date set for 2019, Johnson obtained new expert evaluations under the DSM-5 standards; those experts diagnosed him as intellectually disabled. Johnson then sought authorization to file a successive federal habeas petition, arguing that the DSM-5 had made his Atkins claim newly viable and therefore “previously unavailable” during his earlier habeas proceedings. After the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit authorized the successive petition in 2019, the district court denied the State's motion to dismiss and found Johnson’s Atkins claim was previously unavailable under the Fifth Circuit’s “futility exception” from In re Cathey. The district court certified that ruling for interlocutory appeal, the Fifth Circuit accepted, and a panel affirmed in July 2025, reaffirming Cathey’s holding that a claim is not “previously available” unless it had “some possibility of merit” at the time of the earlier petition. The Fifth Circuit denied rehearing en banc by a 9-7 vote in January 2026.

The nine

Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in Judicial Power cases, and when the lower court ruled liberal; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.

JusticePredictedOverallThis issueLower court liberalAt argument
John G. Roberts
Republican appointee · since OT2005

Chief Justice Roberts generally favors judicial restraint and strict adherence to statutory text, which could lead him to interpret AEDPA's exceptions narrowly, emphasizing the finality of judgments.

66% Guerrero68%
for the petitioner · 1,512 votes
69%
Judicial Power · 197 votes
77%
lower court liberal · 730 votes
not yet argued
Clarence Thomas
Republican appointee · since OT1991

Justice Thomas is a strong proponent of textualism and often takes a narrow view of habeas corpus relief, aligning with a strict interpretation of AEDPA's limitations on successive petitions.

66% Guerrero59%
for the petitioner · 2,801 votes
57%
Judicial Power · 388 votes
77%
lower court liberal · 1,344 votes
not yet argued
Samuel A. Alito
Republican appointee · since OT2005

Justice Alito typically favors a narrow construction of habeas corpus statutes and emphasizes the importance of finality in criminal proceedings, suggesting a preference for limiting exceptions to AEDPA.

68% Guerrero62%
for the petitioner · 1,469 votes
65%
Judicial Power · 190 votes
79%
lower court liberal · 699 votes
not yet argued
Sonia Sotomayor
Democratic appointee · since OT2009

Justice Sotomayor often considers the practical implications for criminal defendants and has expressed concerns about the restrictive nature of AEDPA, which might lead her to favor a broader interpretation of "previously unavailable."

57% Guerrero61%
for the petitioner · 1,192 votes
58%
Judicial Power · 149 votes
48%
lower court liberal · 560 votes
not yet argued
Elena Kagan
Democratic appointee · since OT2010

Justice Kagan often seeks to balance statutory text with practical considerations and has shown a willingness to consider the evolving nature of legal standards, which could influence her view on the availability of claims.

57% Guerrero63%
for the petitioner · 1,072 votes
61%
Judicial Power · 137 votes
51%
lower court liberal · 495 votes
not yet argued
Neil M. Gorsuch
Republican appointee · since OT2016

Justice Gorsuch often emphasizes textualism and originalism, which could lead him to a strict reading of AEDPA's language regarding "previously unavailable" claims, focusing on the plain meaning of the words.

66% Guerrero65%
for the petitioner · 592 votes
69%
Judicial Power · 83 votes
75%
lower court liberal · 278 votes
not yet argued
Brett M. Kavanaugh
Republican appointee · since OT2018

Justice Kavanaugh generally aligns with a more conservative approach to criminal justice and statutory interpretation, often favoring finality and a narrow reading of exceptions to procedural bars in habeas cases.

66% Guerrero69%
for the petitioner · 498 votes
73%
Judicial Power · 62 votes
77%
lower court liberal · 235 votes
not yet argued
Amy Coney Barrett
Republican appointee · since OT2020

Justice Barrett typically adheres to textualist principles in statutory interpretation, which would likely lead her to a close examination of the specific wording of AEDPA's "previously unavailable" clause.

66% Guerrero66%
for the petitioner · 360 votes
71%
Judicial Power · 49 votes
76%
lower court liberal · 168 votes
not yet argued
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Democratic appointee · since OT2022

Justice Jackson has often demonstrated a concern for access to justice and a willingness to consider the real-world impact of legal rules on individuals, which could lead her to a more expansive interpretation of "previously unavailable" in this context.

57% Guerrero59%
for the petitioner · 244 votes
60%
Judicial Power · 37 votes
38%
lower court liberal · 108 votes
not yet argued

Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.

Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.