Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc. v. Frederic
No. 25-1131 · October Term 2026 · First Amendment
Expected vote 6–3 for Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc.. Chance of a unanimous ruling 46%.
Before oral argument the model knows only the case's structure: the issue area, which way the lower court ruled, and each justice's record on both. That is not enough to separate cases, so every unargued case carries the petitioner's base rate. The transcript features arrive within days of argument and the number becomes a call.
The case
The Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc. are suing Joel Frederic and his spouse after the Kentucky Supreme Court upheld a land-use regulation preventing the religious institution from building a religious structure on its property. The Supreme Court has granted review to determine if this regulation constitutes a "substantial burden" on religious exercise under the Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act (RLUIPA). The Court will specifically address whether such a prohibition violates RLUIPA's Substantial Burden Provision.
- Does a land-use regulation that prevents a religious institution from building a religious structure on its own property impose a "substantial burden" on religious exercise under RLUIPA?
- The interpretation of "substantial burden" under RLUIPA is central, as it determines the level of scrutiny applied to government regulations affecting religious land use.
- The Court's decision will clarify the scope of protections afforded to religious institutions under RLUIPA when facing local zoning and land-use restrictions.
AI brief written by gemini-2.5-flash from the questions presented and the Oyez facts on 2026-10-02. Commentary only; it is not an input to the model.
Question presented, as filed
1 . Whether a land-use regulation that prohibits a religious institution from building a religious structure on its own property constitutes a "substantial burden" on religious exercise under the Substantial Burden Provision of the Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act (RLUIPA), 42 U.S.C. § 2000 cc(a). 2 . Whether a land-use regulation violates the Equal Terms Provision of RLUIPA, 42 U.S.C.§ 2000 cc(b)( 1 ), by imposing express restrictions on religious assemblies or institutions that it does not impose on nonreligious assemblies or institutions.
The nine
Each justice's predicted vote and the record behind it: how often they have voted for the petitioner overall, in First Amendment cases, and when the lower court ruled conservative; and, once argued, how many questions they put to each side (the side a justice questions more tends to lose their vote). The note under each row is the AI brief's reading, commentary rather than model input.
| Justice | Predicted | Overall | This issue | Lower court conservative | At argument |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John G. Roberts Republican appointee · since OT2005 Chief Justice Roberts often emphasizes judicial restraint and a careful reading of statutory text, which in this case would involve a close examination of RLUIPA's definition of "substantial burden." His jurisprudence in religious liberty cases often seeks a balance between religious freedom and governmental interests. | 68% Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc. | 68% for the petitioner · 1,512 votes | 75% First Amendment · 83 votes | 61% lower court conservative · 734 votes | not yet argued |
Clarence Thomas Republican appointee · since OT1991 Justice Thomas typically favors a broad interpretation of religious liberty protections and has often been a strong proponent of individual and institutional religious freedom. He is likely to scrutinize any government action that appears to restrict religious exercise, consistent with his originalist approach. | 63% Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc. | 59% for the petitioner · 2,801 votes | 69% First Amendment · 163 votes | 43% lower court conservative · 1,365 votes | not yet argued |
Samuel A. Alito Republican appointee · since OT2005 Justice Alito is a consistent and vocal advocate for religious freedom, often siding with religious claimants in cases involving government regulations. He is likely to interpret "substantial burden" broadly, reflecting his strong stance on protecting religious exercise from government interference. | 66% Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc. | 62% for the petitioner · 1,469 votes | 77% First Amendment · 79 votes | 48% lower court conservative · 722 votes | not yet argued |
Sonia Sotomayor Democratic appointee · since OT2009 Justice Sotomayor often considers the practical impact of regulations on affected communities and individuals, including religious groups. Her approach in religious liberty cases tends to balance religious freedom with other societal interests, but she has also supported protections against discriminatory or unduly burdensome regulations. | 68% Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc. | 61% for the petitioner · 1,192 votes | 48% First Amendment · 69 votes | 76% lower court conservative · 594 votes | not yet argued |
Elena Kagan Democratic appointee · since OT2010 Justice Kagan often focuses on the legislative intent and the practical application of statutes. In RLUIPA cases, she would likely consider the specific language of the "substantial burden" provision and its intended scope, seeking a consistent and workable interpretation. | 68% Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc. | 63% for the petitioner · 1,072 votes | 63% First Amendment · 62 votes | 75% lower court conservative · 543 votes | not yet argued |
Neil M. Gorsuch Republican appointee · since OT2016 Justice Gorsuch is a strong proponent of religious liberty, often emphasizing the free exercise of religion and skepticism towards government regulations that impinge upon it. He is likely to interpret "substantial burden" in a manner that provides robust protection for religious institutions. | 66% Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc. | 65% for the petitioner · 592 votes | 78% First Amendment · 37 votes | 59% lower court conservative · 286 votes | not yet argued |
Brett M. Kavanaugh Republican appointee · since OT2018 Justice Kavanaugh often seeks to apply established precedents and statutory text in a balanced manner, while also demonstrating a commitment to religious freedom. He would likely consider the historical context of RLUIPA and its purpose in protecting religious land use. | 66% Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc. | 69% for the petitioner · 498 votes | 79% First Amendment · 34 votes | 62% lower court conservative · 244 votes | not yet argued |
Amy Coney Barrett Republican appointee · since OT2020 Justice Barrett has a strong record of supporting religious freedom and has often emphasized the importance of protecting religious exercise. Her textualist approach would lead her to carefully analyze the statutory language of RLUIPA's "substantial burden" provision. | 68% Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc. | 66% for the petitioner · 360 votes | 75% First Amendment · 24 votes | 60% lower court conservative · 178 votes | not yet argued |
Ketanji Brown Jackson Democratic appointee · since OT2022 Justice Jackson often considers the real-world implications of legal interpretations and the historical context of civil rights legislation. In this case, she would likely examine the legislative history and purpose of RLUIPA to ensure its protections are effectively applied to religious institutions. | 68% Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc. | 59% for the petitioner · 244 votes | 67% First Amendment · 15 votes | 80% lower court conservative · 127 votes | not yet argued |
Rates are each justice's own participation record in the Supreme Court Database, the same history the model trains on; a rate on fewer than five votes is not shown. The predicted vote is VotePredictor SCOTUS' per-justice probability from the served model, which also reads the bench-wide transcript signal and how long each side held the podium.
Every call this term, justice by justice · how the model is built and its record. Data as of 2026-10-02.